When I’m looking into the DFS slate each week, I like to go game by game and identify players or situations that intrigue me. In every game, on every team, there’s a situation that’s relevant for DFS, for either a positive or negative reason. Those situations inform us of how we should be attacking each slate.
Spread: +2.5 vs Pittsburgh | Total: 43.5
Christian Kirk ($5,200) appears to have gotten Ramsey-ed last week. He still saw plenty of volume with his seven targets, but was inefficient.1 Since Week 8, Kirk is averaging 8.4 targets per game.
Unfortunately, during that stretch he’s only scored 15+ DK points in two of five games.
Spread: -3 vs Carolina | Total: 47
Calvin Ridley ($6,700) is the highest price he’s been in his career. Over the past three weeks, he’s averaged 23.5 DraftKings points.
It appears that Julio Jones ($7,500) will be back in the fold this week after missing the Thanksgiving game last week. Austin Hooper ($6,000) also looks like he’s ready to make his return. With a suddenly crowded pass catching corps, Ridley could see a slight drop in volume.
Spread: -5.5 @ Buffalo | Total: 43
Lamar Jackson ($7,400) is averaging nearly 89 rushing yards per game, not including when they blew the doors off of the Dolphins in Week 1. He’s averaging 12.5 points per game from his rushing alone.
That’s about the same production as Philip Lindsay who is $5,300 this week. When you tack on the extra points he gets from passing, it’s clear that he’s still underpriced.
Spread: +5.5 vs Baltimore | Total: 43
Josh Allen ($6,200) spent six of the first eight weeks of the season as a QB2. He’s now rattled off four straight weeks as a QB1, though, and should be in consideration for your lineups. To start the year, his rushing load was all over the place. Since Week 10, though, Allen is averaging eight rushing attempts per game.
Thanks to the consistency of those rushing attempts his floor has been raised. Allen hasn’t had a game under 20 DK Points in that timeframe.
Spread: +3 @ Atlanta | Total: 47
Christian Jackson McCaffrey ($10,300) is first or second in every relevant RB statistic.
He has seen 46% of the total opportunities of the Panthers offense. Do we really have to do this? I mean, just play McCaffrey.
Spread: +8.5 @ Cleveland | Total: 40.5
If you’re trying to save with a cheap stack, Andy Dalton ($5,200) to Tyler Boyd ($5,900) is an intriguing option this week. With Dalton under center, they’ve shown a desire to throw the ball. He has thrown at least 36 times in every game that he’s started.
Even in a big win last week, they still attempted 37 passes. Boyd looked like he was in for a monster week until the Bengals took the lead and played keep away in the second half. He finished the day with 16.9 DK Points on 10 targets but most of that production came in the first half.
Spread: -8 vs Cincinnati | Total: 40.5
Nick Chubb ($8,000) is in an interesting spot as an 8.5-point home favorite. Kareem Hunt ($6,600) has definitely eaten into Chubb’s workload more than we might have hoped, but Chubb will likely be one of the two lowest owned running backs of the ten-most expensive options.
The Browns have won three of their last four games. In those wins, Chubb has averaged 25.7 opportunities per game. Those opportunities have happened despite the presence of Hunt and his 12.7 opportunities per game.
Spread: +9.5 @ Houston | Total: 41.5
Courtland Sutton ($6,400) should be talked about more as a wide receiver breakout. He’s playing for a bad Broncos team that doesn’t get much publicity. The season that he’s putting together has been impressive given the steaming pile of QB garbage he’s had to deal with.
Sutton has had a pretty consistent target share all season and he’s been pretty efficient. You’d have to hope that he sees more than five targets if he’s going to consistently pay off this price tag, though.
Spread: +13 @ Minnesota | Total: 43.5
Playing Kenny Golladay ($6,700) feels like chasing this week. He blew up for nearly 30 DK Points on Thanksgiving Day but he did so on just five targets.
His expected points tell the story the best way possible. Last week he saw less expected points than wide receiver juggernauts like Pharoh Cooper and David Moore.
Green Bay Packers
Spread: -13 vs Washington | Total: 41.5
Jamaal Williams ($4,800) is a sneaky play this week at running back.
Over the past five games, the gap between the workload that Williams and Aaron Jones ($6,700) have received isn’t as large as their price discrepancy would suggest. In fact, the difference is only about four DK points per game and that’s with the inclusion of 44 point and 27 point games from Jones. As huge home favorites, both of these running backs are in play.
Spread: -9.5 vs Denver | Total: 41.5
DeAndre Hopkins ($7,400) could be one of the top three owned wide receivers when all is said and done this week. That opens up Will Fuller ($5,500) as a leverage play in the same game.
This is the age-old question of “is it a low-owned play because it’s bad, or are people missing something?” There’s no arguing against the fact that it’s a thin play. But, Fuller is one of the few people that can truly break a slate on one or two plays.
Spread: +3 @ Tampa Bay | Total: 46.5
Marlon Mack ($6,000) looks like he’ll be making his return this week. He was listed as a full participant on Thursday. I’m more interested in the punt wide receivers, though. Marcus Johnson ($3,600) and Parris Campbell ($3,200).
Last week, Johnson saw six targets. With T.Y. Hilton and Chester Rogers now on the shelf, that should open more work for Johnson and Campbell. If you’re attempting to fit in Lamar Jackson, Christian McCaffrey, and Michael Thomas you’ll need one of these WRs in your lineup to make it work.
Spread: +3 vs Los Angeles Chargers | Total: 43
Leonard Fournette ($7,800) has seen the second-most valuable workload in the league this year. Over 40% of the Jags’ offense has gone through Fournette.2
He’s averaging over 25 opportunities per game so far. Unfortunately, Fournette is 156th in FPOE per game because he’s only found the end zone three times.
Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: +3 @ New England | Total: 48.5
It goes without saying that Patrick Mahomes ($7,000) hasn’t produced at the same level this year.
He’s still averaging 23.6 DK points in his starts this year with 70% of his starts ending in a QB1 performance. If you can afford it, stacking him up with Travis Kelce ($6,200). He’s finished as a TE1 in 11 straight games. The ceiling might not seem like it’s quite as high but if this game shoots out and Kelce goes under-owned, he could pay off nicely.
Los Angeles Chargers
Spread: -3 @ Jacksonville | Total: 43
Since returning, Melvin Gordon ($6,400) has averaged 13.9 DK points with only two RB1 performances. He’s in a bit of a dead zone as far as pricing is concerned this week and will put you on a different build. The Chargers are an abject disaster, but they’ve shown that they want to get Gordon involved over the past month.
He’s averaged 22.2 opportunities over the Chargers last four games. During that stretch, Austin Ekeler ($6,300) has scored a couple of times. If those touchdowns went Gordon’s way, he’d be more expensive and more popular this week. Gordon is worth a flier if you’re building multiple lineups.
Spread: +5 @ New York Jets | Total: 45
This has been a banner month for the DeVante Parker ($6,900) Truther Association. He’s seen 41 targets. Over that span, 26% of Parker’s targets have been deep balls.
That target output has turned into a couple of WR1 performances and an average DK output of over 22 points. With Julian Edelman and the Tampa Bay wide receivers just a few hundred dollars above Parker, he could go relatively under-owned this week in a game where the Dolphins will likely continue to take shots.
Spread: -13 vs Detroit | Total: 43.5
All signs point to Dalvin Cook ($8,900) playing, but his status is worth monitoring. If he isn’t able to go, Alexander Mattison ($4,500) would be a free square for cash games. I’m interested in Stefon Diggs ($7,600) in tournaments, regardless of Cook’s status. He’ll be excellent leverage in two senses. On the one hand, Cook or Mattison will certainly be higher owned than Diggs. On the other hand, he’s a price pivot from Davante Adams who will also be higher owned.
As we know, it’s been boom-or-bust for the Minnesota wideout. But, at low ownership, his ceiling is worth the risk of any potential dud games in GPPs.
New England Patriots
Spread: -3 @ Kansas City | Total: 48.5
Julian Edelman ($7,100) is criminally under-owned week after week.
He’s seen double-digit targets in 9-of-12 games, including each of the last seven. Edelman is quietly the WR5 in PPR scoring this year. The Patriots passing offense runs through him, especially with the injuries and departures they’ve dealt with in the wide receiver room. Edelman is in play in all formats every week with the volume he sees.
New Orleans Saints
Spread: -2.5 vs San Francisco | Total: 44.5
One of these things is not like the others.
If you’re willing to jump ship on Michael Thomas ($8,300) after a poor outing, I’m not sure what to tell you. Thomas had a bad day, but he’s matchup proof. He has the most valuable workload among all wide receivers. He leads wide receivers in:
- PPR points per game
New York Jets
Spread: -5 vs Miami | Total: 45
Robby Anderson ($5,100) saw 173 air yards last week. That was good for the third-highest total of the week. After a few weeks of low usage, his targets seem to be on the way back up.
Since their Week 4 bye, he has finished as a WR3 in six of nine games. His last two games have been WR2 efforts, though, and the price is great for his ceiling.
Spread: +3 vs Tennessee | Total: 47
Josh Jacobs ($6,500) has had a few rough outings in a row. He’s playing with a fractured shoulder, which could be playing a part in that, but his floor is as low as it’s been all year. The main issue is his lack of targets.
Jacobs has seen more than three targets just twice this season. He’s 8th in rush attempts but all the way down at 42nd in targets this year. If they can get a lead at home against Tennessee then he’d be an interesting contrarian play, but there’s no way he’s sniffing cash lineups.
Spread: -2.5 @ Arizona | Total: 43.5
James Conner is still questionable this week and has yet to practice at the time of this writing. That leaves Benny Snell ($6,100) to get the majority of the carries for the Steelers. He’s seen nearly 20 opportunities per game over the past two weeks in Conner’s absence.
They are favorites, though they are on the road against Arizona. I don’t see a situation where I’d consider rostering him based on his nearly non-existent pass game usage.
San Francisco 49ers
Spread: +2.5 @ New Orleans | Total: 44.5
The 49ers running back situation is a mess.
Since Week 11, Tevin Coleman ($5,100) and Raheem Mostert ($4,600) have split the work pretty evenly. Now, with Matt Breida ($4,600) potentially returning, the backfield is even more crowded. The prices are all fair given the risk associated with each running back but all you’re really doing is playing RB Whack-a-Mole if you’re rostering one of these guys.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: -3 vs Indianapolis | Total: 46.5
This past week was one of the strangest weeks for Tampa Bay in recent memory. The Bucs put up 28 points, Jameis Winston ($6,400) threw for 268 yards on 33 attempts but only scored 11.7 DK points. Ronald Jones ($4,400) missed a blitz pickup and was benched because apparently Bruce Arians has a zero-tolerance policy for that kind of thing. Chris Godwin ($7,300) and Mike Evans ($7,200) combined for 18.3 DK points on 17 targets and Breshad Perriman ($3,700) led the team in receiving yards.
I’m fine with going back to Winston, though. He’s been a QB1 in four of their six games since the bye.
Spread: -3 @ Oakland | Total: 47
Derrick Henry ($8,200) has never been this expensive across his entire career. He’s averaging over 21 opportunities per game for the season. That number has jumped up over the Titans last three games to 24.7 opportunities. Henry continues to see basically no work in the passing game, though.
He hasn’t seen more than three targets in any game this year. Henry has, however, found the end zone about as often as you could ever expect from a running back. He’s scored in each of the last four games.
Spread: +13 @ Green Bay | Total: 41.5
Derrius Guice ($4,900) had his coming out party. Insert obligatory “it’s just nice to see him out on the field” comment here. Scoring 30.7 DK points is obviously nothing to scoff at, but he was only on the field for 19 of 64 snaps.
Since his return, he hasn’t crossed over 50% of the snaps and is averaging just 34% at the moment. You’d imagine that would continue to rise. While his price is fair, he represents an interesting decision point in lineups this weekend.