In the first two parts of this series, we looked at running backs and wide receivers picked in Rounds 3-6 of best ball drafts in 2019 and talked about what your strategy should be in those rounds in 2020. Today, we’re going to do the same thing for RBs and WRs drafted in Round 10 or later.
How did late-round RBs do in 2019?
RBs drafted in Round 10 or later this year had an average win rate of 7.2%, whereas the 2015-18 average was 7.8%. Scoring was down 20.0%.
However, the 2019 median (7.4%) was actually higher than the 2015-18 median (7.2%). Best ball win rates usually have a positive skew, which means the average is normally higher than the median because of a few guys who post extraordinarily high win rates. Those guys are your difference-makers; James Conner and Alvin Kamara are two recent examples. The histogram below shows the frequency of different win rate groups from 2015-18.