Our PGA DFS season is continuing with the Sony Open in Waialae Country Club. Waialae is a Par 70 that plays a bit over 7,000 yards. If you’re interested in the typical course preview, you can check out last year’s version but we’re switching it up this year.
One of the ways we (attempt to) identify who’s going to do well at a given course is by looking at the proximity of approach shots at that course. We check “how the course plays” by looking at historical examples of where those approach shots come from and we try and identify golfers with a good fit based on that. Those numbers, though, assume that every golfer in the field is seeing the same distribution of approach distances.
Why Do We Care?
The methodology for figuring this out is reasonably simple. I took every golfer that has teed it up on the PGA Tour over the last 10 years and looked at their driving stats. That information went into a simulator and took a sampling of 150 predicted drives for each hole and found the average approach shot that a golfer would face given that driving distance.1
As you can see in the graph, there’s a spike around 125-140 and then a larger spike of shots coming from 175-200. If we just assume that distribution for every golfer on Tour, we’re obviously going to be wrong. The type of approach shots Colt Knost2 will see compared to Rory McIlroy3 aren’t comparable. Anyone who’s ever watched or played golf understands this, but for some reason, people choose to ignore these differences.
Proximity Predictions
This section will certainly evolve as the season goes on. I figured I’d give you guys access to how I’m looking at the stats so you can do your own digging. The table below has “Predicted” columns for different distances. The “Birdie or Better” columns tell you the percent of the time that a golfer cards a birdie or better from a particular distance. These are just estimates but should give you a better feel for where these shots are coming from and which golfer is likely to see shots that go along with their strengths or weaknesses.
| Name | Salary | Predicted - <125 | Birdie or Better (<125) | Predicted - 125 to 150 | Birdie or Better (125-150) | Predicted - 150 to 175 | Birdie or Better (150 to 175) | Predicted - 175 to 200 | Birdie or Better (175 to 200) | Predicted - 200+ | Birdie or Better (200+) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Thomas | 12000 | 5 | 26% | 3 | 22% | 4 | 21% | 3 | 23% | 1 | 41% |
| Webb Simpson | 11100 | 2 | 22% | 5 | 22% | 2 | 18% | 6 | 13% | 1 | 37% |
| Patrick Reed | 10800 | 3 | 24% | 4 | 25% | 3 | 14% | 5 | 15% | 1 | 32% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 10500 | 4 | 26% | 3 | 26% | 3 | 18% | 5 | 16% | 1 | 35% |
| Collin Morikawa | 10300 | 4 | 37% | 3 | 14% | 3 | 9% | 5 | 30% | 1 | 39% |
| Matt Kuchar | 9900 | 2 | 28% | 4 | 19% | 3 | 16% | 6 | 13% | 1 | 30% |
| Sungjae Im | 9600 | 3 | 26% | 4 | 17% | 3 | 18% | 5 | 16% | 1 | 36% |
| Joaquin Niemann | 9400 | 5 | 24% | 3 | 20% | 3 | 15% | 4 | 12% | 1 | 33% |
| Marc Leishman | 9200 | 4 | 20% | 3 | 14% | 3 | 19% | 5 | 20% | 1 | 31% |
| Charles Howell III | 9100 | 5 | 22% | 2 | 20% | 4 | 17% | 4 | 17% | 1 | 32% |
| Abraham Ancer | 9000 | 2 | 23% | 5 | 18% | 2 | 17% | 6 | 12% | 1 | 34% |
| Corey Conners | 8900 | 5 | 26% | 2 | 22% | 3 | 16% | 5 | 15% | 1 | 30% |
| Alex Noren | 8800 | 5 | 22% | 2 | 15% | 3 | 11% | 5 | 9% | 1 | 35% |
| Kevin Kisner | 8700 | 2 | 24% | 4 | 24% | 3 | 14% | 6 | 10% | 1 | 28% |
| Brandt Snedeker | 8600 | 2 | 26% | 4 | 22% | 3 | 18% | 6 | 11% | 1 | 29% |
| Cameron Smith | 8500 | 2 | 24% | 5 | 18% | 2 | 19% | 6 | 14% | 1 | 30% |
| Chez Reavie | 8400 | 2 | 26% | 4 | 20% | 3 | 19% | 6 | 14% | 1 | 29% |
| Brendon Todd | 8300 | 2 | 23% | 3 | 18% | 2 | 15% | 7 | 5% | 2 | 27% |
| Brian Harman | 8200 | 2 | 21% | 4 | 19% | 3 | 16% | 6 | 12% | 1 | 33% |
| J.T. Poston | 8100 | 3 | 28% | 4 | 20% | 3 | 16% | 5 | 15% | 1 | 32% |
| Andrew Putnam | 8000 | 2 | 29% | 4 | 23% | 3 | 20% | 6 | 13% | 1 | 31% |
| Sebastian Munoz | 7900 | 5 | 25% | 2 | 20% | 3 | 14% | 5 | 17% | 1 | 39% |
| Brian Stuard | 7900 | 2 | 26% | 3 | 24% | 2 | 17% | 7 | 10% | 2 | 27% |
| Aaron Wise | 7800 | 5 | 24% | 2 | 16% | 4 | 13% | 4 | 24% | 1 | 38% |
| Russell Knox | 7800 | 2 | 25% | 4 | 17% | 3 | 18% | 6 | 7% | 1 | 30% |
| Carlos Ortiz | 7700 | 5 | 22% | 2 | 15% | 3 | 14% | 5 | 11% | 1 | 34% |
| Dylan Frittelli | 7700 | 4 | 27% | 3 | 16% | 3 | 15% | 5 | 11% | 1 | 32% |
| Rory Sabbatini | 7600 | 3 | 26% | 4 | 24% | 2 | 14% | 6 | 15% | 1 | 33% |
| Emiliano Grillo | 7600 | 3 | 27% | 4 | 16% | 3 | 17% | 5 | 12% | 1 | 32% |
| Ryan Palmer | 7500 | 5 | 28% | 2 | 27% | 4 | 15% | 4 | 16% | 1 | 30% |
| Lanto Griffin | 7500 | 5 | 25% | 3 | 20% | 3 | 14% | 4 | 19% | 1 | 40% |
| Kevin Na | 7500 | 2 | 25% | 4 | 25% | 2 | 13% | 7 | 11% | 1 | 30% |
| Zach Johnson | 7400 | 2 | 28% | 4 | 18% | 2 | 12% | 7 | 14% | 1 | 27% |
| Pat Perez | 7400 | 2 | 32% | 4 | 18% | 3 | 20% | 6 | 11% | 1 | 25% |
| Vaughn Taylor | 7400 | 2 | 29% | 4 | 23% | 3 | 16% | 6 | 14% | 1 | 32% |
| Daniel Berger | 7300 | 5 | 19% | 2 | 20% | 3 | 17% | 5 | 10% | 1 | 35% |
| Shugo Imahira | 7300 | 3 | NA | 4 | NA | 3 | NA | 5 | NA | 1 | NA |
| Brian Gay | 7200 | 2 | 28% | 3 | 17% | 2 | 16% | 7 | 8% | 2 | 27% |
| Matt Jones | 7200 | 4 | 24% | 3 | 17% | 3 | 12% | 5 | 14% | 1 | 36% |
| Keegan Bradley | 7200 | 5 | 19% | 2 | 20% | 3 | 16% | 5 | 17% | 1 | 30% |
| Scott Piercy | 7100 | 3 | 22% | 4 | 19% | 3 | 15% | 5 | 15% | 1 | 32% |
| Joel Dahmen | 7100 | 3 | 21% | 4 | 22% | 3 | 15% | 5 | 15% | 1 | 34% |
| Russell Henley | 7100 | 3 | 27% | 4 | 20% | 3 | 16% | 5 | 13% | 1 | 26% |
| Kyle Stanley | 7000 | 3 | 27% | 4 | 21% | 2 | 15% | 6 | 8% | 1 | 31% |
| Ryan Armour | 7000 | 2 | 25% | 4 | 24% | 1 | 17% | 8 | 11% | 1 | 25% |
| Bud Cauley | 6900 | 4 | 26% | 3 | 18% | 3 | 14% | 5 | 13% | 1 | 38% |
| Brice Garnett | 6900 | 2 | 22% | 5 | 20% | 2 | 16% | 6 | 8% | 1 | 31% |
| Fabian Gomez | 6900 | 2 | 23% | 4 | 22% | 3 | 15% | 6 | 11% | 1 | 31% |
| Sung Kang | 6900 | 3 | 23% | 4 | 20% | 3 | 13% | 5 | 14% | 1 | 34% |
| Patton Kizzire | 6900 | 3 | 19% | 4 | 19% | 3 | 16% | 5 | 14% | 1 | 33% |
| Keith Mitchell | 6800 | 6 | 17% | 2 | 24% | 4 | 16% | 3 | 15% | 1 | 33% |
| Adam Long | 6800 | 2 | 23% | 5 | 18% | 2 | 12% | 6 | 14% | 1 | 29% |
| Tyler Duncan | 6800 | 3 | 20% | 4 | 17% | 2 | 12% | 6 | 11% | 1 | 31% |
| Graeme McDowell | 6800 | 2 | 19% | 4 | 13% | 2 | 17% | 7 | 15% | 1 | 28% |
| Jimmy Walker | 6800 | 4 | 18% | 3 | 14% | 3 | 9% | 5 | 14% | 1 | 32% |
| Nate Lashley | 6800 | 2 | 28% | 5 | 20% | 2 | 16% | 6 | 13% | 1 | 31% |
| Kevin Tway | 6800 | 6 | 20% | 2 | 16% | 4 | 10% | 3 | 17% | 1 | 33% |
| Talor Gooch | 6800 | 5 | 24% | 2 | 17% | 3 | 17% | 5 | 14% | 1 | 35% |
| Chris Kirk | 6700 | 2 | 25% | 4 | 0% | 3 | 0% | 6 | 50% | 1 | 25% |
| Henrik Norlander | 6700 | 3 | 23% | 4 | 15% | 3 | 23% | 5 | 8% | 1 | 30% |
| Nick Taylor | 6700 | 3 | 24% | 4 | 21% | 3 | 16% | 5 | 10% | 1 | 33% |
| Xinjun Zhang | 6700 | 5 | 27% | 2 | 20% | 3 | 23% | 5 | 21% | 1 | 38% |
| D.J. Trahan | 6700 | 5 | 28% | 2 | 13% | 3 | 7% | 5 | 9% | 1 | 43% |
| Harry Higgs | 6700 | 5 | 21% | 2 | 25% | 4 | 18% | 4 | 18% | 1 | 29% |
| Charley Hoffman | 6700 | 5 | 20% | 2 | 24% | 3 | 14% | 5 | 16% | 1 | 33% |
| Zac Blair | 6700 | 2 | 33% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 9% | 6 | 10% | 3 | 31% |
| Doc Redman | 6600 | 5 | 36% | 2 | 16% | 3 | 16% | 5 | 19% | 1 | 30% |
| David Hearn | 6600 | 2 | 22% | 4 | 24% | 2 | 13% | 7 | 12% | 1 | 27% |
| Luke List | 6600 | 6 | 22% | 3 | 17% | 3 | 14% | 3 | 18% | 1 | 36% |
| Hudson Swafford | 6600 | 5 | 25% | 2 | 13% | 3 | 12% | 5 | 16% | 1 | 34% |
| Kyoung-Hoon Lee | 6600 | 2 | 21% | 4 | 20% | 3 | 11% | 6 | 16% | 1 | 32% |
| Sam Burns | 6600 | 6 | 22% | 2 | 19% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 16% | 1 | 33% |
| Robby Shelton | 6600 | 3 | 28% | 4 | 20% | 2 | 11% | 6 | 12% | 1 | 30% |
| Robert Streb | 6600 | 3 | 23% | 4 | 15% | 3 | 11% | 5 | 15% | 1 | 28% |
| Aaron Baddeley | 6500 | 3 | 23% | 4 | 19% | 3 | 14% | 5 | 14% | 1 | 35% |
| Kramer Hickok | 6500 | 3 | 20% | 4 | 18% | 2 | 14% | 6 | 14% | 1 | 31% |
| Troy Merritt | 6500 | 2 | 22% | 4 | 25% | 3 | 17% | 6 | 13% | 1 | 40% |
| Scott Brown | 6500 | 2 | 23% | 4 | 19% | 3 | 17% | 6 | 13% | 1 | 31% |
| Jason Dufner | 6500 | 2 | 21% | 5 | 18% | 2 | 14% | 6 | 11% | 1 | 30% |
| Mark Hubbard | 6500 | 2 | 23% | 4 | 14% | 2 | 16% | 7 | 23% | 1 | 37% |
| Sam Ryder | 6500 | 4 | 29% | 3 | 20% | 3 | 13% | 5 | 14% | 1 | 35% |
| Adam Schenk | 6500 | 6 | 26% | 2 | 19% | 3 | 16% | 4 | 15% | 1 | 32% |
| Matthew NeSmith | 6400 | 2 | 22% | 5 | 16% | 2 | 16% | 6 | 17% | 1 | 34% |
| Cameron Davis | 6400 | 6 | 24% | 2 | 15% | 4 | 15% | 3 | 19% | 1 | 34% |
| Cameron Percy | 6400 | 3 | 38% | 4 | 25% | 3 | 16% | 5 | 3% | 1 | 27% |
| Scott Harrington | 6400 | 6 | 26% | 2 | 18% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 17% | 1 | 40% |
| Hank Lebioda | 6400 | 3 | 28% | 4 | 18% | 3 | 20% | 5 | 14% | 1 | 32% |
| Chesson Hadley | 6400 | 3 | 20% | 4 | 17% | 3 | 14% | 5 | 13% | 1 | 32% |
| J.J. Spaun | 6400 | 3 | 26% | 4 | 19% | 3 | 17% | 5 | 14% | 1 | 28% |
| Brendan Steele | 6400 | 5 | 21% | 2 | 13% | 4 | 15% | 4 | 10% | 1 | 36% |
| Tom Hoge | 6300 | 2 | 23% | 5 | 17% | 2 | 14% | 6 | 14% | 1 | 31% |
| Patrick Rodgers | 6300 | 6 | 19% | 2 | 21% | 3 | 13% | 4 | 16% | 1 | 37% |
| Andrew Landry | 6300 | 2 | 25% | 5 | 16% | 2 | 19% | 6 | 13% | 1 | 29% |
| Michael Thompson | 6300 | 2 | 24% | 4 | 22% | 3 | 14% | 6 | 14% | 1 | 30% |
| Peter Malnati | 6300 | 2 | 28% | 4 | 19% | 2 | 10% | 7 | 17% | 1 | 32% |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 6300 | 3 | 22% | 4 | 16% | 3 | 14% | 5 | 12% | 1 | 31% |
| Chase Seiffert | 6300 | 5 | 23% | 2 | 18% | 3 | 20% | 5 | 11% | 1 | 31% |
| Matt Every | 6300 | 3 | 30% | 4 | 20% | 3 | 10% | 5 | 28% | 1 | 31% |
| Doug Ghim | 6300 | 2 | 28% | 5 | 24% | 3 | 5% | 5 | 17% | 1 | 21% |
| James Hahn | 6300 | 3 | 31% | 4 | 22% | 3 | 14% | 5 | 21% | 1 | 32% |
| Sepp Straka | 6200 | 5 | 25% | 2 | 25% | 4 | 13% | 4 | 17% | 1 | 34% |
| Jamie Lovemark | 6200 | 5 | 12% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 9% | 4 | 32% | 1 | 28% |
| Roger Sloan | 6200 | 3 | 23% | 4 | 22% | 3 | 15% | 5 | 11% | 1 | 30% |
| Bo Hoag | 6200 | 3 | 18% | 4 | 11% | 3 | 9% | 5 | 12% | 1 | 33% |
| Anirban Lahiri | 6200 | 3 | 29% | 4 | 15% | 3 | 13% | 5 | 12% | 1 | 27% |
| Jim Herman | 6200 | 3 | 23% | 4 | 20% | 3 | 18% | 5 | 11% | 1 | 25% |
| Jerry Kelly | 6200 | 2 | NA | 3 | NA | 2 | NA | 6 | NA | 3 | NA |
| Tyler McCumber | 6200 | 6 | 21% | 3 | 24% | 3 | 15% | 3 | 20% | 1 | 29% |
| Satoshi Kodaira | 6200 | 2 | 18% | 4 | 19% | 3 | 14% | 6 | 11% | 1 | 28% |
| Kristoffer Ventura | 6200 | 6 | 16% | 2 | 27% | 4 | 29% | 3 | 27% | 1 | 30% |
| Brandon Hagy | 6200 | 7 | 17% | 2 | 9% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 10% | 1 | 34% |
| Ben Martin | 6100 | 2 | 23% | 4 | 37% | 3 | 12% | 6 | 0% | 1 | 11% |
| Rikuya Hoshino | 6100 | 5 | NA | 2 | NA | 4 | NA | 4 | NA | 1 | NA |
| Ryan Brehm | 6100 | 7 | 16% | 2 | 15% | 3 | 13% | 3 | 32% | 1 | 35% |
| Graham DeLaet | 6100 | 5 | 19% | 2 | 12% | 3 | 29% | 5 | 8% | 1 | 12% |
| Rhein Gibson | 6100 | 4 | 22% | 3 | 23% | 3 | 5% | 5 | 16% | 1 | 35% |
| Ted Potter Jr. | 6100 | 2 | NA | 4 | NA | 2 | NA | 7 | NA | 1 | NA |
| Will Gordon | 6100 | 7 | 16% | 2 | 14% | 3 | 12% | 3 | 7% | 1 | 32% |
| Rob Oppenheim | 6100 | 2 | 24% | 4 | 14% | 2 | 11% | 7 | 15% | 1 | 28% |
| Joseph Bramlett | 6100 | 5 | 28% | 2 | 20% | 3 | 13% | 5 | 10% | 1 | 30% |
| Ryuko Tokimatsu | 6100 | 2 | NA | 4 | NA | 2 | NA | 7 | NA | 1 | NA |
| Rafael Campos | 6100 | 3 | 23% | 4 | 24% | 3 | 11% | 5 | 16% | 1 | 33% |
| Mikumu Horikawa | 6100 | 2 | NA | 3 | NA | 2 | NA | 7 | NA | 2 | NA |
| Ben Taylor | 6100 | 4 | 30% | 3 | 15% | 3 | 14% | 5 | 15% | 1 | 24% |
| Chris Baker | 6000 | 2 | 12% | 4 | 11% | 3 | 17% | 6 | 5% | 1 | 21% |
| Michael Gellerman | 6000 | 5 | 17% | 2 | 16% | 3 | 22% | 5 | 16% | 1 | 22% |
| Kazuki Higa | 6000 | 0 | NA | 0 | NA | 0 | NA | 3 | NA | 1 | NA |
| Tim Wilkinson | 6000 | 2 | 26% | 4 | 13% | 1 | 5% | 8 | 23% | 1 | 20% |
| Vijay Singh | 6000 | 2 | NA | 5 | NA | 2 | NA | 6 | NA | 1 | NA |
| Mark Anderson | 6000 | 2 | 21% | 4 | 18% | 3 | 10% | 6 | 10% | 1 | 17% |
| Alex Beach | 6000 | 3 | NA | 4 | NA | 3 | NA | 5 | NA | 1 | NA |
| Tyler Ota | 6000 | 0 | NA | 0 | NA | 0 | NA | 3 | NA | 1 | NA |
| Eric Dugas | 6000 | 3 | NA | 4 | NA | 2 | NA | 6 | NA | 1 | NA |
| Smylie Kaufman | 6000 | 5 | NA | 2 | NA | 3 | NA | 5 | NA | 1 | NA |
| Bo Van Pelt | 6000 | 2 | 18% | 5 | 30% | 2 | 10% | 6 | 0% | 1 | 26% |
| Parker McLachlin | 6000 | 2 | 30% | 4 | 0% | 2 | 0% | 7 | 0% | 1 | 8% |
| Martin Trainer | 6000 | 5 | 18% | 2 | 15% | 5 | 10% | 3 | 9% | 1 | 31% |
| Colt Knost | 6000 | 2 | NA | 3 | NA | 2 | NA | 6 | NA | 3 | NA |
| Michael Gligic | 6000 | 5 | 24% | 2 | 18% | 3 | 19% | 5 | 15% | 1 | 20% |
