Freak Score is our scaled metric that uses height, weight, and speed to project the TD-scoring potential for NFL prospects. Unlike many other measures for an NFL prospect’s size/athleticism profile, the Freak Score gives us a measure that directly relates to an important element of fantasy scoring. If you aren’t adjusting for the importance of height, then you’re missing the critical element.
The Freak Score also helps us differentiate between the truly freakish players and those who are “just” professional athletes. The Freak Score is scaled 1 to 100, and the incomparable Calvin Johnson sets our scale at 100. Megatron ran a 4.35 at 6-foot-5, 237 pounds. Take a look at some of the other names at the top of the list.
|9||DARRIUS HEYWARD BEY||74||210||4.25||86|
After a stretch of years with the top score sitting in the mid-70s, D.K. Metcalf’s transcendent 2019 combine performance jumped over Stephen Hill for No. 2 all time.
Following a breakout campaign, Darren Waller’s 2015 combine performance jumps out as well. He had the size to transition to tight end and the athleticism to create a mismatch at that position. A potential TE transition has been mentioned for one of this year’s standouts as well.
I’ve removed a few of the non-prospects, but the rest of the list reminds us how brutal it was to cover Vincent Jackson or Andre Johnson. Thankfully, we still get to enjoy Julio Jones’ exploits on a weekly basis.
It also presents a few names of caution. Dorial Green-Beckham, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Kevin White all tantalized with their athletic ability, but serious production demerits foreshadowed disappointing NFL careers.
The 2020 class picked up right where 2019 left off. It gave us a threat to John Ross’ record and a size/speed monster to challenge Metcalf. Several other prospects also put on displays that will have them rising up draft boards.
2020 Wide Receiver Freak Scores
|Chase Claypool||6-4 2/8"||238||4.42||91|
|Antonio Gibson||6-0 3/8"||228||4.39||79|
|Dezmon Patmon||6-3 6/8"||225||4.48||75|
|Denzel Mims||6-2 7/8"||207||4.38||72|
|Joe Reed||6-0 4/8"||224||4.47||69|
|Tyrie Cleveland||6-2 3/8"||209||4.46||64|
|Henry Ruggs III||5-11"||188||4.27||63|
|Donovan Peoples-Jones||6-1 5/8"||212||4.48||63|
|Kendrick Rogers||6-4 2/8"||208||4.51||63|
|Justin Jefferson||6-1 2/8"||202||4.43||61|
|Laviska Shenault Jr.||6-0 5/8"||227||4.58||59|
|Devin Duvernay||5-10 4/8"||200||4.39||58|
|Isaiah Coulter||6-1 7/8"||198||4.45||57|
|Quez Watkins||6-0 1/8"||185||4.36||55|
|Jalen Reagor||5-10 5/8"||206||4.47||53|
|John Hightower||6-1 4/8"||189||4.43||53|
|K.J. Osborn||5-11 4/8"||203||4.48||52|
|Freddie Swain||6-0 2/8"||197||4.46||52|
|Isaiah Hodgins||6-3 5/8"||210||4.61||52|
|Brandon Aiyuk||5-11 5/8"||205||4.5||52|
|CeeDee Lamb||6-1 5/8"||198||4.5||52|
|Aaron Parker||6-1 5/8"||209||4.57||51|
|Cody White||6-3 3/8"||217||4.66||51|
|Marquez Callaway||6-1 2/8"||205||4.55||50|
|Trishton Jackson||6-0 6/8"||197||4.5||49|
|Quartney Davis||6-1 2/8"||201||4.54||49|
|Austin Mack||6-1 4/8"||208||4.59||48|
|Kalija Lipscomb||5-11 7/8"||207||4.57||46|
|Omar Bayless||6-0 6/8"||212||4.62||46|
|Ben Victor||6-3 6/8"||198||4.6||46|
|Darnell Mooney||5-10 1/8"||176||4.38||43|
|Jauan Jennings||6-3 1/8"||215||4.72||43|
|K.J. Hill||5-11 7/8"||196||4.6||36|
|Tony Brown||6-0 6/8"||198||4.65||34|
|Aaron Fuller||5-10 6/8"||188||4.59||30|
|Jeff Thomas||5-8 7/8"||170||4.45||29|
|Quintez Cephus||6-0 7/8"||202||4.73||29|
|Chris Finke||5-9 4/8"||186||4.57||28|
|Malcolm Perry||5-9 4/8"||186||4.63||22|
Chase Claypool – 91
Running a 4.43 at a ridiculous 6 feet 4 inches and 238 pounds, Claypool joined D.K. Metcalf with the second-best Freak Score for any receiver in our time frame. He backed that up with a 40.5-inch vertical. It’s safe to say that Claypool is open any time he steps onto an NFL field.
How will that translate into fantasy production? Well, we know teams covet this type of freakish athleticism, and we might wonder about his comps if we move him into the second round of the reality event. Pulling up Claypool’s statistical profile in the Box Score Scout, we find largely disappointing names.
Claypool’s 22% career yardage share is well under the level of an elite prospect, and it took a strong final season to get him there. Staying four years puts him in a group of receivers that has historically underperformed draft position by a full round, but there is hope.
You can see the unusual nature of Claypool’s profile when perusing the weights of his comps. They’re all much lighter, illustrating how difficult it is to find players with this size/speed/production profile. Chris Conley is a good example of an athletic star who couldn’t break out to stardom with the Chiefs but has carved a solid career in the league.
Antonio Gibson – 79
Many draft experts consider Gibson a better fit at RB, and that includes our own Travis May who ranked him No. 28 in his Top 100 Rookie Countdown. His 4.39 forty at 228 pounds makes him a mouthwatering option as a committee back who could eventually morph into a front line starter.
Denzel Mims – 72
Running a sub-4.4 forty at 6 feet 3 inches helps explain why Mims is a TD-scoring machine. He’s accounted for 35% or more of Baylor’s receiving TDs in each of the last three seasons, including an impressive 12-TD finale.
Add a 38.5-inch vertical and ridiculous 6.66 three-cone, and Mims has effectively rehabbed the disappointing 2018 season. Had Mims been able to turn pro after a 2017 campaign where he broke out with a 33% Dominator on 17.8 yards per reception, he would have been a compelling first-round pick.
Henry Ruggs III – 63
When you turn in a 4.27 and people are disappointed, you have otherworldly speed. For the good, or possibly the bad, his top comps are exactly who you’d expect them to be.
Fellow sub-4.3 runners Marquise Goodwin and Jacoby Ford might be much more exciting names if they’d had better health during their NFL careers.
Justin Jefferson – 61
Jefferson didn’t need to run a 4.43 to be a borderline first-round pick, but his strong numbers just confirm that he’s the Only Receiver In This Class Who Checks All the Boxes. That’s even more true now, although comps like Justin Hunter and Nelson Agholor might give drafters pause.
Jauan Jennings (43), K.J. Hill (36), and Quintez Cephus (29) all hear their names called in deep dynasty startups, but poor forty times present another stumbling block as they try to overcome checkered production profiles. Cephus at least had a couple of solid years from a market share perspective and offered a glimpse of athleticism with a 38-inch vertical. Jennings (29) and Hill (32.5) disappointed in the leaping drills as well.
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