PGA DFS: Billy Horschel is the Belle of the Ball at the Honda Classic
Image Credit: George Walker/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Billy Horschel.

The Tour heads to Florida this week for The Honda Classic. It’s played at PGA National’s Champion course, which is a 7,100-yard par 70. This track is one of the more difficult tests on the entire tour. Getting golfers to make the cut is always important, but a missed cut is especially damaging here. Of the 103 courses in my database, PGA National has the 12th lowest average DK points for golfers who miss the cut of non-major venues. 

Finish Category Average DK Points
Top 25 71.3
25 – 50 56.2
51 – 75 48.7
MC 20.7

Buy or Sell

Billy Horschel ($9,200) is a name that’s flying around quite a bit this week. We’ve seen him get hot and play some of the best golf on Tour in spurts. He’s made 27 of 31 cuts dating back to the start of 2019, but more recently he’s put together a couple of top 10s, which has the Twittersphere buzzing. Horschel has the second-best adjusted score over the past eight rounds in the field. If you think he can sustain this success, it’s hard to fade him. He’s relied on his putter recently, and this is a tournament where carnage is the norm. Playing a highly owned Billy Horschel isn’t in my bag of tricks, so I’m going to sell. 

The most expensive golfer on the slate is Tommy Fleetwood ($11,600). He also has the highest PRK Score in the field among golfers with 100-plus rounds in my database. 

Fleetwood has performed well stateside on courses that are shorter than 7,200 yards. He plays smart and actually gains almost a full stroke more on shorter courses. The only decision point is ownership. If he pushes above 17% or so, I think there’s a case to be made for a fade of him, but I’m buying based on his play assuming reasonable ownership. 

Over/Under

Matthew NeSmith ($7,200) is a guy who’s played some excellent golf in 2020 but remains a bit under the radar. I set his over/under at 36.5 based on his price, but I think that’s likely his floor outcome given his current form. The simulator has him at a top 20 over 47% of the time. Historically, golfers with a 91 PRK Score have even finished in the top 10 about a third of the time. He’s made seven straight cuts and finished T11 at Pebble Beach, which was comparable in field strength. 

Tune into Bogey Free to hear our picks for Louis Oosthuizen ($9,700 – o/u 17.5) and Daniel Berger ($8,900 – o/u 21.5).

GPP Plays

Erik van Rooyen ($9,000) is an interesting decision point. He has less data stateside than most of the golfers in the field, but we saw what he’s capable of last week down in Chapultepec. Over the last 24 rounds, the raw PRK numbers say that he’s about 1.4 strokes better than the average golfer on Tour. That number is good for third in the field. 

As I pointed out in the Expected Birdies piece yesterday, Maverick McNealy ($7,500) continues to rate very highly because of his high Birdie or Better rate. McNealy also comes into the event with a PRK Score of 82. Golfers that have come into an event with that PRK Score have historically fared very well. That group has finished in the top 10 20% of the time and the top 20 over 34% of the time. 

Cash Locks

  • Matthew NeSmith ($7,200)
  • Sungjae Im ($9,300)

Here’s a quick recap of how the cash locks have performed this year. 

NameSalaryPRK ScoreOwnership
Tommy Fleetwood1160087.5519.5
Brooks Koepka1120085.1818.5
Rickie Fowler1080082.2120.5
Gary Woodland1030076.2823
Justin Rose990082.6116.5
Louis Oosthuizen970072.5313.5
Viktor Hovland950010011.5
Sungjae Im930077.0813.9
Billy Horschel920077.6724.9
Shane Lowry910075.4910.5
Erik van Rooyen900092.498
Daniel Berger890075.4918.5
Byeong Hun An880068.9715.5
Joaquin Niemann870073.1210.5
J.T. Poston860074.315.7
Ian Poulter850070.557.4
Charles Howell III840067.982.4
Ryan Palmer830064.0310
Corey Conners820067.1910.5
Charl Schwartzel810061.863.3
Luke List800062.2514.5
Emiliano Grillo800067.5910.5
Jhonattan Vegas790062.458.5
Kevin Streelman790070.556.5
Lee Westwood780067.7910.5
Harris English780071.7416.5
Matthew Wolff770056.925.5
Harold Varner III770069.768
Vaughn Taylor760077.8710.5
Russell Knox760073.9114.5
Wyndham Clark760069.9611.5
Maverick McNealy750082.027
Adam Schenk750070.953.9
Russell Henley740065.228.5
Patrick Rodgers740066.42.9
Rory Sabbatini740070.957.4
Keegan Bradley740060.084.5
Brian Harman730071.947.9
Kurt Kitayama730040.122.2
Bud Cauley730074.3111.5
Keith Mitchell730057.314.6
Harry Higgs730081.628.6
Matthew NeSmith720091.119.5
Talor Gooch720068.975.9
Tom Lewis720052.962
Kyle Stanley720061.072.4
Lucas Glover720068.588.2
Cameron Tringale710072.735.9
Matt Wallace710054.742.1
Brendan Steele710058.12.7
Denny McCarthy710074.95.2
Jim Furyk710074.95.5
Sam Burns710064.036.6
Xinjun Zhang700062.851.4
Sam Ryder700064.230.8
Doc Redman700070.756.7
Kyoung-Hoon Lee700062.855.9
Sean O'Hair700054.551.6
Cameron Davis700063.441.2
Nick Watney690065.812.2
Aaron Wise690065.421.3
Zach Johnson690068.971.3
Beau Hossler690057.910.8
Henrik Norlander690069.370.8
Tom Hoge690071.9412.5
Scott Stallings6800670.7
Matt Jones680068.181.4
Adam Long680065.220.9
Danny Lee680059.680.9
Dylan Frittelli680061.861.4
Chesson Hadley680055.931.7
Kiradech Aphibarnrat680060.471.3
Grayson Murray6700500.7
Mark Hubbard670061.071.2
Chase Seiffert670064.621.6
Joseph Bramlett670057.511.7
Bronson Burgoon670066.81.3
Stewart Cink670064.031.8
Brian Stuard670069.963.8
Peter Malnati660061.460.7
Tim Wilkinson6600672
Hudson Swafford660059.291.2
Michael Thompson660062.251.2
Bo Hoag660064.030.7
Ted Potter Jr6600590.2
Kevin Tway660067.980.9
Tyler McCumber660072.921.6
D.J. Trahan650065.810.6
Camilo Villegas650040.911.3
Cameron Percy650067.592.1
Scott Brown650058.32.7
Rob Oppenheim650062.650.6
Brandon Hagy650052.960.6
Brice Garnett650065.220.8
Zac Blair650059.290.8
Robert Streb640058.30.2
Si Woo Kim640047.042.5
Jimmy Walker640051.191.1
Cheng Tsung Pan640061.261.9
Jason Dufner640053.362.3
Brian Gay640062.451.1
Lucas Bjerregaard640043.080.3
Sebastian Cappelen640054.940.1
Sepp Straka630059.490.2
Richy Werenski630060.470.1
John Huh630060.670.6
Jamie Lovemark630060.080.7
Austin Cook630053.360.1
Robby Shelton630048.420.2
Padraig Harrington630044.270.1
Mark Anderson630057.710.6
Roger Sloan620058.30.1
Patton Kizzire620047.630.1
Chris Stroud620053.360.1
Tyler Duncan620055.340.2
Matt Every620057.910.2
Scott Harrington620055.730.2
Jim Herman620036.960.1
Luke Donald620053.950.7
Chris Baker610057.110.1
Mackenzie Hughes610049.60.1
Martin Trainer610000.1
Fabian Gomez610061.260.1
Davis Love III610046.640
Ryo Ishikawa610038.540.2
Bo van Pelt610032.020.1
David Hearn610059.680.1
Seung-Yul Noh610055.140.1
Hank Lebioda600053.560.5
Vijay Singh600044.270.9
Satoshi Kodaira600021.540.1
Chris Kirk600056.520.5
Justin Bertsch600040.120.1
Kramer Hickok600050.20.1
Michael Gligic600054.550.1
Ryan Armour600056.920.2
Greg Chalmers600038.740
Image Credit: George Walker/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Billy Horschel.
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