Shawn Siegele breaks down his 12 rookie picks in a recent mock-draft extravaganza for the Dynasty Command Center Rookie Guide. He examines all of his options in Superflex, TE Premium, and Classic formats.
As we put the final touches on Volume 2 of the Dynasty Command Center Rookie Guide, I wanted to evaluate my picks in each of our mocks. The DCC Rookie Guide provides four-round mocks for three different formats, helping readers understand the landscape prior to the 2020 NFL Draft.
If you want to dive even deeper, I’ve provided links to our prospect profiles with advanced stats and in-depth research. We also deploy the Box Score Scout, NFL Combine Explorer, RB Prospect Lab, and more as we search for the best deals at each slot.
1.07 – Options: Laviska Shenault, Jalen Reagor, Tee Higgins, Justin Jefferson, Denzel Mims
In the middle of the first round, we run into the tricky question of draft position versus production, momentum versus evidence, health versus bust potential.
Jefferson checks all the boxes, but he doesn’t pop out in any particular category and likely offers less field-tilting upside. Mims is a fast-riser off of a dominant combine performance. Unfortunately, his status as a four-year player makes it impossible to close the gap. Higgins is the current darling, yet falls well below the production metrics I discuss in the Rookie Guide, Vol. 2.
In a reality draft, I’d move down for Shenault, as his core surgery pushes him into ADP free fall. But he’s the choice over Reagor here, with better market share numbers and elite peripheral production as well. Both options enjoy physical comps that suggest more upside than the trendier choices.
The Pick. Shenault
2.07 – Options: Brandon Aiyuk, K.J. Hamler, Zack Moss, Eno Benjamin, Hunter Bryant
Moss and Benjamin weren’t able to correct their biggest demerit at the combine – a concern about raw speed. Benjamin did impress in the vertical and three-cone, and comes away with a top physical comp of Aaron Jones.
Benjamin will be a priority target when he slips, but this choice still came down to a battle between intriguing WR options.
Among the group of receivers mentioned in the first and early-second rounds, only three sported final-season yardage and TD market shares above 30%: CeeDee Lamb, Brandon Aiyuk, and K.J. Hamler. Lamb is my top-ranked receiver, while Aiyuk and Hamler should be better values than some of the hyped names. They both offer those valuable peripheral touches as well.
The Pick: Aiyuk.
3.07 – Options: Justin Herbert, Chase Claypool, Gabriel Davis, Quez Watkins
Claypool matched D.K. Metcalf’s crazy Freak Score and immediately places himself in the riser category. Unfortunately, his relative lack of production still holds him back. The same can’t be said for another combine warrior.
These are the draft-agnostic comps for Watkins, a player who averaged over 100 yards a game in 2019 and offered legit speed in testing. If we enter a later-round draft pick, his comps are still solid with names like Stefon Diggs, Mike Wallace, Chris Givens, and Josh Boyce.
The Pick: Herbert. I like to stockpile reality first-round QBs in the third round of rookie drafts. Herbert also destroyed the combine, offering ridiculous athleticism at 6-feet-6 and 236 pounds. Questions about accuracy give him outcomes that range from All-Pro to bust.
4.07 – Options: Quez Watkins
The Pick: Watkins. I took a chance on Watkins coming back around, and he fell to the 4.07 here. Draft weekend will determine his rookie ADP. Any pick on Day 2 would place his value squarely in the top-24 picks.
1.10 – Options: Justin Herbert, Justin Jefferson, Tee Higgins, Henry Ruggs, Laviska Shenault
It’s hard to go wrong stockpiling QBs in these formats.
The Pick: Herbert.
2.10 – Options: Brandon Aiyuk, Zack Moss, Eno Benjamin, K.J. Hamler
With QBs moved up the board, I had the same second-round options in Superflex despite the later slot. It’s tempting to diversify my portfolio here, but Aiyuk is a rising player with elite yards per reception and yards after the catch numbers. His top comp is 2019 breakout Michael Gallup, and his underappreciated combine gave him a 40-inch vertical to go with an 80-inch wingspan.
Aiyuk is the perfect combination of production and athleticism, a crazy hybrid of always-open and lethal-with-the-ball-in-his-hands. (He added over 650 kick return yards last year, a stealth indicator of WR success.)
The Pick: Aiyuk. It was tempting to go Hamler here, but Aiyuk is a small step ahead . . . at least until the Penn State star destroys his pro day.
3.10 – Options: Hunter Bryant, Chase Claypool, Gabriel Davis
This class lacks a star at TE but is deep enough that combine megastar Albert Okwuegbunam and projected first-TE-off-the-board Cole Kmet often last toward the later stages. Meanwhile, Bryant is usually the choice among fantasy owners looking for the best pass-catcher at the position.
The Pick: Bryant.
4.10 – Options: Quez Watkins, Brycen Hopkins, Cole Kmet
Hopkins offers more pluses and negatives than any other TE in the draft. His 2019 campaign was special, but it didn’t occur until his redshirt senior season. His athletic numbers were impressive, yet not quite what enthusiasts had projected. Unfortunately, Hopkins’ mismatch ability as a move TE is also offset by concerns about his hands and blocking ability.
The Pick: Watkins. With a TE already added, I’ll pivot back to my favorite sleeper.
1.02 The Options – Jonathan Taylor, D’Andre Swift, CeeDee Lamb
J.K. Dobbins went off the board ahead of Taylor. Although I’ve raved about the Wisconsin star as a generational prospect, any player with 2,250 yards from scrimmage and a freakish athletic profile is in the mix as well. Taylor isn’t locked into the 1.01 until we discover where these top-three RBs land.
The Pick: Taylor. If you’re tired of reading my Taylor praise, jump over and read T.J. Calkins on the subject of Taylor as virtually superhuman.
2.02 The Options – Denzel Mims, Zack Moss, Brandon Aiyuk, Hunter Bryant
Bryant is an intriguing option anywhere in Round 2 of a TE Premium format, but this is the perfect slot to create some exposure to Mims.
The Baylor prospect dominated the combine, and if you’ve read my 200 Comps – Top Athletic Matches for Every Elite WR, you know these results at 6-feet-3 and 207 pounds gave him top comps of Javon Walker and Julio Jones.
Dave Caban dives into a circuitous college career that included a sophomore breakout and examines his inconsistent but occasionally spectacular performances. Recently on Overtime, Colm Kelly and I debated whether Mims might be worthy of jumping four or five receivers in this draft.
The Pick: Mims. He didn’t make it beyond 2.01 in the other two formats.
3.02 – The Options: Cole Kmet, Adam Trautman, Chase Claypool, Isaiah Hodgins
Kmet gained fewer than 700 total yards for Notre Dame, but almost all of that came in a junior season where he accounted for 24% of their receiving yardage. Tight end is another position where young prospects dominate, and his early declare and rumored high draft position would provide elite comps.
The Pick: Kmet. I like Hodgins as the perfect sleeper, and have already landed him in real events, but I’ll prioritize the TE in this format.
4.02 – The Options: Gabriel Davis, Harrison Bryant
Considered a borderline second-round reality pick a month ago, Davis isn’t generating as much buzz after a mediocre combine. In a deep draft, he’s now fairly likely to slide into Day 3, but his numbers suggest he could still be a value.
The UCF prospect emerged with a big junior season, averaging over 100 yards a game and scoring 12 TDs with a gaudy 17.2 yards per reception.
The Pick: Davis. I like to stockpile young, productive prospects late.
My personal multi-round mocks will be coming later this spring. To dive into more prospect research, make sure you check out our post-combine research from RotoViz tools.
2020 Freak Scores: Henry Ruggs Blazes and a Sleeper Posts an Epic Score
2020 RB Prospect Lab Rankings: The Best Prospect Since Barry Sanders and a Rich Man’s Derrick Henry Lead the Way
200 Comps – The Combine Explorer Finds the Top Athletic Matches for the Top 10 WR Prospects