If You’re Going to Play Chalk, Get It at a Discount: Are We Good at Picking Golfers in the $8,400 to $7,500 Range?
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Image Credit: Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Collin Morikawa.

I’ve spent most of the past three months diving into different ways to model PGA Tour performance. As with most things, predicting golf exists on a spectrum. On the “most predictable” side of that spectrum, you have things like Driving Distance. It doesn’t really change from event to event with some, rare exceptions. On the other end, we have things like putting performance. The variance is off the charts and it’s a fool’s errand to devote much time to predicting it. 

The one piece of information that we can be reasonably sure of heading into a tournament is what a golfer’s potential ownership will be. Each week, I publish the PRK Model results alongside my ownership projections. With that in mind, I’ve decided to do a series on performance vs ownership at different salary ranges. We’ll start at the top with golfers that are between $7,500 and $8,400. 

What Does Ownership Look Like in the $7,500-$8,400 Range?

The median ownership of all of the golfers in this group is about 8.5%. I broke out the historical results of this cohort into four equal groups.

Ownership Group Ownership Range Total Golfers
Mega-Chalk 13.5% and Up 275
Chalk 8.5% – 13.49% 275
Medium-Owned 4.5% – 8.49% 275
Low-Owned 4.54% and Below 275

As we go through the rest of this piece1, we’ll use these same ownership group names but the numbers may be different across salary ranges. 

We’ve seen two golfers hit 40% or more in this range. Luke List and Emiliano Grillo are the only golfers to do so since the beginning of 2018. 

Are We Good at Picking Golfers from this Range?

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