PGA DFS: Charles Schwab Challenge Slate Breakdown
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Image Credit: Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Rory McIlroy.

It has been quite some time since we were able to talk golf, but the return is right around the corner. The tour heads out to Colonial Country Club down in Fort Worth, Texas, for the Charles Schwab Challenge. This course has been in the rotation since the 1940s. It’s a par 70 that plays just a shade over 7,200 yards. Colonial features relatively small greens (4,500 square feet) that are bentgrass. The field will have to navigate their way around 85 bunkers and four water hazards. To see an in-depth course breakdown, head over to last year’s preview article.

Checking the Chalk

As of right now, it looks like we will have five golfers soaking up most of the ownership. At the top of the salary scales, we have Rory McIlroy ($11,800) and Jon Rahm ($11,000) projected for 20% or higher ownership. Rory has the top salary and the top PRK score, so it’s not much of a shock that people will be looking to click his name. We’ve also seen him play meaningful golf more recently than most of the guys in this field. Rahm is nipping at Rory’s heels for the No. 1 spot in the OWGR.[1] Nobody will fault you for playing either of them. Over the last three years, there have been 42 golfers to hit 18% or higher ownership. Of that group, 19 (45%) have scored 80-plus DK Points. The issue, as always, with playing one of these guys is that you need to go dumpster diving to fit them in. I’ll have more on that in a bit, though.

In the $9,000 range, we have two golfers who were staples in most of these articles prior to our sudden break from sports. Webb Simpson ($9,800) and Sungjae Im ($9,300) were in plenty of my lineups in January through March. Simpson has ranked strongly in PRK since its creation last year. Im has been one of the most consistent golfers we’ve seen lately making 18-of-19 cuts and notching his first victory back at the Honda Classic. Golfers in the $9,000 price range that see 15% or higher ownership haven’t been the sure things that most people would expect them to be. Just 48 of 125 (38.4%) of golfers fitting those criteria have scored 80-plus DK Points. On the other hand, golfers in the $9,000 range that are lower-owned (under 10%) have actually had a better hit rate. Of that group, 39-of-82 (47.5%) have hit 80-plus DK Points. 

Down in the $8,000 range, we have another one of my favorite golfers who will likely be popular. Scottie Scheffler ($8,400) just seems too cheap regardless of how strong this field actually is. Unfortunately, it seems like plenty of people are noticing that. He comes in with the seventh-best PRK Score despite having just the 19th-highest salary. Unfortunately, we’re not great at picking the best golfers in this range. Only about 30% of golfers in the $8,000 range that hit 15% or higher ownership end up scoring 80-plus DK Points. 

Picking Pivots

Bryson DeChambeau ($10,100) is the most natural pivot off of the chalk at the top. He comes into the week with an 84 in the PRK which isn’t significantly worse than Webb at 87. The bonus, though, is that DeChambeau will come at almost half the ownership. If you head over to the PGA Sim Scores and Pivots app and go to DeChambeau’s recent sims, you’ll see some guy with the last name McIlroy as his closest comp. 

Scheffler is going to be one of the higher owned golfers on the slate, but there’s a golfer nearly $2,000 cheaper that’s a perfect arbitrage. Sticking with the pivots app, if we plug in Scheffler and look for golfers in this field, Jhonattan Vegas ($6,700) makes an appearance. The putting is a bit of a disaster. But … welcome to PGA DFS! We pride ourselves here on finding good ball-strikers and hoping to catch a hot putter. Vegas is a great GPP option.

Cash Locks

  • Collin Morikawa ($9,100)
  • Viktor Hovland ($7,900)

Model Results and Ownership Projections - Charles Schwab Challenge

NameDK$PRK ScoreOwnership
Rory McIlroy1180010022
Jon Rahm1100088.819
Justin Thomas1060091.2615
Bryson DeChambeau1010084.369
Webb Simpson980087.4222
Brooks Koepka970075.619
Xander Schauffele960081.614.1
Dustin Johnson950077.458.54
Rickie Fowler940080.528.1
Sungjae Im930083.1319
Patrick Reed920082.8218
Collin Morikawa910080.8316
Justin Rose900078.5313.38
Marc Leishman890079.147.38
Gary Woodland880075.9212
Tony Finau870079.7511.5
Shane Lowry860076.539.38
Matt Kuchar850079.614
Scottie Scheffler840082.9817.5
Jason Day830074.697.38
Matthew Fitzpatrick820072.557.38
Louis Oosthuizen810071.477
Jordan Spieth800068.8714.38
Sergio Garcia8000675.38
Viktor Hovland790082.8210.38
Daniel Berger770078.6810.88
Kevin Na760071.4711.5
Kevin Kisner760071.939.38
Harris English750079.1412.38
Joel Dahmen750075.619.88
Max Homa750073.935.38
Joaquin Niemann740070.415.38
Ryan Palmer740069.4812
Byeong Hun An740074.5410.38
Billy Horschel740074.395.38
Matthew Wolff740063.192.38
Adam Hadwin730074.087.38
Abraham Ancer730074.546.38
Ian Poulter730074.395.38
Maverick McNealy730072.553.38
Christiaan Bezuidenhout730047.853.38
Phil Mickelson730058.593.38
Cameron Smith730066.872.38
Ryan Moore720069.945.38
Danny Lee720065.85.38
Brian Harman720071.474.38
Russell Knox720072.393.38
Bubba Watson720069.171.38
Jason Kokrak720071.631.38
Rory Sabbatini720074.690.88
Tom Hoge720072.241.38
Corey Conners710064.727.38
Erik Van Rooyen710084.974.38
Emiliano Grillo710065.344.38
Chez Reavie710072.242.38
Keegan Bradley710063.041.88
Jim Furyk710070.711.38
Brendan Steele710065.030.75
Branden Grace710063.040.5
J.T. Poston700069.171.38
Charley Hoffman700063.81.38
Sebastian Munoz700074.231.38
Harry Higgs700073.771.38
Talor Gooch700071.931.38
Jason Dufner700061.351.38
Alex Noren700070.091.38
Graeme McDowell700065.80.5
Lanto Griffin690071.933.38
Rafa Cabrera Bello690069.332.38
Matthew NeSmith690078.532.38
Harold Varner III690068.562.38
Charles Howell III690068.41.38
Kevin Streelman690072.551.38
Victor Perez690047.851.38
Danny Willett690061.660.8
Brendon Todd680069.484.38
Scott Piercy680075.773.38
Andrew Putnam680070.092.38
Bud Cauley680076.381.38
Zach Johnson680066.11.38
Adam Long680068.711.38
C.T. Pan680061.21.38
Sung Kang680060.280.75
Jimmy Walker670060.283.38
Kevin Tway670063.652.38
Chris Kirk670061.811.38
Lucas Glover670068.11
Jhonattan Vegas670070.090.75
Wyndham Clark670070.710.75
Patrick Rodgers670070.090.5
Nick Watney670068.250.05
Vaughn Taylor660075.773.38
Matt Wallace660075.462.38
Carlos Ortiz660073.931.38
Beau Hossler660064.571.38
Mackenzie Hughes660061.21.38
Cameron Champ660061.811.24
Sam Ryder6600600.5
Keith Mitchell660063.80.5
Jazz Janewattananond650047.852.38
Cam Davis6500531.38
Nate Lashley650066.411.38
Dylan Frittelli650066.871.38
Matt Jones650073.770.75
Tom Lewis650057.980.75
Si Woo Kim650055.210.05
Pat Perez650064.110.05
J.J. Henry640048.931.88
Andrew Landry640066.560.75
Xinjun Zhang640065.180.75
Denny McCarthy6400570.75
Zac Blair640062.120.75
Robby Shelton640058.280.5
Chesson Hadley640060.740.5
Tyler Duncan640060.430.5
Brice Garnett6300551.88
Kramer Hickok630059.051.88
John Senden630042.181.88
Troy Merritt630067.941.13
Patton Kizzire630056.440.75
Peter Uihlein630060.890.5
Mark Hubbard630066.870.05
Doc Redman6300750.05
Tyler McCumber630068.710.05
Steve Stricker620070.711.38
Scott Brown620056.90.75
Kyoung-Hoon Lee620068.710.75
Brian Stuard620065.340.5
Sepp Straka6200600.5
Jim Herman620046.930.05
Andy Ogletree620000.05
Keith Clearwater620000.05
Bronson Burgoon610066.870.75
Scott Harrington610061.350.75
Bill Haas610056.90.5
Henrik Norlander6100600.5
Richy Werenski6100600.5
Brian Gay610060.430.05
David Frost610054.910.05
Olin Browne610045.40.05
Tom Lehman600065.951.88
Josh Teater6000691.38
Adam Schenk600071.010.75
Chad Campbell600055.520.75
Doug Ghim6000480.5
Bernhard Langer600067.020.5
Scott McCarron600034.20.05
Franklin Corpening600047.850.05

Footnotes

Footnotes
1 And could overtake him with a win on Sunday.

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