PGA DFS: Justin Thomas is Locked and Loaded at the RBC Heritage
Share on twitter
Share on facebook
Image Credit: David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Justin Thomas.

After a solid week down in Texas, the Tour turns its attention to Harbour Town Golf Links for the RBC Heritage. If you want an in-depth look at this week’s track, head over to last year’s preview article.

Buy or Sell

Webb Simpson ($9,000) is coming back off of a disappointing performance down in Texas, missing the cut as one of the most heavily owned golfers in the field. Despite that disappointment, people will likely be going right back to the well with him. I’d be shocked if he wasn’t one of the top three owned golfers on the slate this week. How do $9,000 golfers that are highly owned perform, you ask? Historically, you don’t gain much by eating chalk in the $8,500-$9,400 range. Golfers that are at least 18% owned have hit 89 or more DK Points 22% of the time. That’s only one percentage point higher than golfers in that same price range that are 8-14% owned. 

Ian Poulter ($7,600) is one of the most talked about golfers in the value tier this week. Golfers in this tier have, historically, performed well when they reach “chalk” status (8-13% owned). That cohort has hit 82-plus DK Points about 19% of the time. I have him right on the cusp of that at the time of this writing. If he falls in that range, Poulter is an easy fade for me. There are natural pivots off of him that will make for lineups with much more leverage. 

Pivots

Justin Thomas ($10,900) and Xander Schauffele ($10,200) seem like they may go slightly under-owned this week. Thomas has finished in the top 12 in 18 of his last 29 starts dating back to the beginning of last year. That’s an absurd rate, and if he ever goes under-owned you need to take advantage. Schauffele has made 51 of 58 cuts since the start of 2018. He has a ton of cut equity and brings a safe floor to your lineups. Schauffele has exceeded his expected salary-based floor in nearly 83% of starts over that span. 

Viktor Hovland ($7,600) deserves some attention as a natural pivot off of Poulter. The course history slappies are pining for Poulter, but we know better. Just last week, Hovland (T23) outperformed Poulter (T29). One of Hovland’s closest sims is Gary Woodland ($8,400). Hovland is hitting more greens than Woodland and has been unlucky with the putter. If the ball-striking stays and the putter heats up, we could be in for an excellent week. 

Deep Dive

Harry Higgs ($6,900) had an up and down week (70-65-71-69) en route to a T38 at Colonial CC. He comes in with a streak of six straight made cuts and has exceeded salary-based DK scoring expectations in six of seven starts. Higgs is a bit volatile and isn’t necessarily at the point that we can trust him in a cash lineup. He’s shown his upside this year already, though, and I’m willing to go a bit overweight on him this week. Per the Sim Scores and Pivots App, he’s basically arbitrage Sungjae Im ($9,700) so far for his career. 

What is the Optimizer Telling Us?

If we set the optimizer to make us 50 lineups with no single golfer above 80% exposure, here are the golfers that make the player pool. 

Unsurprisingly, Hovland and Higgs pop as big-time values. At the top of the price range, the optimizer wants to fit in Rory McIlroy ($11,300), Thomas, and Simpson. If I were using these exact exposures from the optimizer, I’d likely dial down the Vaughn Taylor ($6,700) exposure a bit. 

Cash Locks

  • Viktor Hovland ($7,600)
  • Tony Finau ($8,200)

Model Results and Ownership Projections - RBC Heritage

NameSalaryPRK_ScoreOwnership Projection
Rory McIlroy1130010015.10
Justin Thomas1090084.814.60
Bryson DeChambeau107008819.58
Jon Rahm1050092.915.60
Xander Schauffele1020083.912.00
Collin Morikawa1000082.216.41
Sungjae Im970080.920.67
Hideki Matsuyama950081.414.00
Justin Rose92008017.46
Webb Simpson900087.324.31
Daniel Berger890080.27.50
Patrick Reed880084.114.76
Jordan Spieth870064.17.59
Brooks Koepka860063.611.49
Dustin Johnson850081.715.70
Gary Woodland840076.819.38
Matt Kuchar83008019.04
Tony Finau820082.210.34
Rickie Fowler810078.512.43
Abraham Ancer800071.68.05
Tyrrell Hatton800075.614.78
Matthew Fitzpatrick790069.98.63
Jason Kokrak790073.810.44
Scottie Scheffler780066.30.05
Shane Lowry780065.36.12
Branden Grace78005513.88
Louis Oosthuizen770067.73.37
Billy Horschel770074.89.74
Kevin Kisner770065.814.94
Jason Day760071.95.95
Viktor Hovland760079.510.02
Ian Poulter760068.516.96
Brandt Snedeker750071.93.00
Byeong Hun An750065.34.94
J.T. Poston750066.310.83
Joel Dahmen750076.510.92
Rafa Cabrera Bello740062.62.50
Joaquin Niemann740065.82.71
Corey Conners740056.74.86
Harold Varner740060.15.06
Bubba Watson740066.36.80
Kevin Na730057.50.05
Ryan Palmer730056.71.85
Sergio Garcia730063.34.20
Adam Hadwin730061.65.62
Harris English730070.95.98
Graeme McDowell720057.91.71
Christiaan Bezuidenhout720027.42.16
Luke List7200555.42
Rory Sabbatini7200685.84
Brian Harman720073.36.31
Bud Cauley720072.16.83
Cameron Smith710059.21.39
Scott Piercy7100661.49
Patrick Rodgers710065.31.81
Lucas Glover710062.81.91
Maverick McNealy710059.22.69
Russell Henley710057.93.61
Jim Furyk710064.35.44
Danny Lee700045.20.43
Alex Noren700063.30.54
Zach Johnson700063.81.04
Max Homa700063.31.42
Talor Gooch700066.31.65
Luke Donald700047.43.28
Kevin Streelman700068.53.74
Charles Howell690060.61.04
Chesson Hadley6900561.19
Brendon Todd690057.21.26
Matthew Wolff690059.71.64
Harry Higgs690073.82.09
Ryan Moore690065.52.80
Russell Knox690059.94.29
Matt Wallace680066.70.28
Andrew Putnam680058.40.47
Charley Hoffman6800560.86
Andrew Landry680056.20.97
Danny Willett680049.61.12
Chez Reavie680065.31.86
Emiliano Grillo680055.52.72
Dylan Frittelli670062.10.29
Matt Jones670064.10.32
Jhonattan Vegas670062.60.79
Vaughn Taylor670071.60.81
Sebastian Munoz670067.21.15
Cheng Tsung Pan670041.31.59
Si Woo Kim670038.63.19
Jazz Janewattananond660027.40.10
Tom Hoge660059.90.69
Charl Schwartzel660053.10.77
Erik Van Rooyen6600681.32
Sam Burns660058.21.58
Brian Stuard660064.12.85
Matthew NeSmith660070.74.67
Victor Perez650027.40.12
Pat Perez650057.90.18
Jimmy Walker650040.30.20
Sung Kang650051.60.27
Lanto Griffin650060.40.36
Adam Schenk650063.80.41
Keith Mitchell650050.10.46
Jason Dufner650048.90.62
Nick Watney640042.50.01
Cameron Tringale640068.20.05
Aaron Baddeley640063.80.17
Tyler Duncan640047.90.56
Troy Merritt640049.90.58
Mark Hubbard640054.50.82
Bronson Burgoon640057.51.00
Aaron Wise640060.11.03
Doc Redman640057.52.47
Adam Long630059.20.01
Peter Malnati630052.60.05
Brian Gay630051.80.19
Mackenzie Hughes630046.70.23
Wesley Bryan630018.80.25
Carlos Ortiz630059.40.31
Nate Lashley630055.70.35
Wyndham Clark630059.70.37
Kevin Chappell6300560.62
Scott Stallings620057.20.01
J.J. Spaun620038.60.01
Michael Thompson620050.40.01
Kevin Tway620049.60.01
Brice Garnett620059.90.14
Scott Brown620042.10.17
Sepp Straka620054.50.55
Kyle Stanley620046.90.81
Denny McCarthy620060.61.11
Kyoung-Hoon Lee610049.90.01
Roger Sloan610046.50.01
Bernhard Langer610062.60.01
Vijay Singh6100200.01
Austin Cook610049.90.01
Chris Stroud610044.70.01
Matt Every610037.70.07
K.J. Choi610040.30.13
Glen Day610035.50.13
Sam Ryder610049.10.17
Stewart Cink610061.60.61
Andy Ogletree600027.40.01
Jim Herman600029.10.01
Bo Van Pelt600013.20.01
Davis Love600030.80.01
Martin Trainer600000.01
Michael Gligic6000320.01
Ernie Els600046.20.01
David Hearn600054.30.08
Michael Kim600010.50.09
Patton Kizzire600039.60.10
Spencer Ralston6000NA0.27
Ted Potter6000NA0.60
Ryan Armour600060.40.76
Bill Haas600036.41.81

Please subscribe For Full Access to all RotoViz content and tools!

 

What’s included in your subscription??

  • Exclusive Access to RotoViz Study Hall
    • A treasure trove of our most insightful articles that will teach you the metrics that matter, time-tested winning strategies, the approaches that will give you an edge, and teach you how to be an effective fantasy manager.
  • Revolutionary Tools
    • Including the NFL Stat Explorer, Weekly GLSP Projections, NCAA Prospect Box Score Scout, Combine Explorer, Range of Outcomes App, DFS Lineup Optimizer, Best Ball Suite,and many, many, more.
  • Groundbreaking Articles
    • RotoViz is home of the original Zero-RB article and continues to push fantasy gamers forward as the go-to destination for evidence-based analysis and strategic advantages.
  • Weekly Projections
    • Built using RotoViz’s unique GLSP approach.
  • Expert Rankings
  • NFL, CFB, and PGA coverage included in all subscription levels.
  • And a whole lot more…

The Blitz

What we do
Connect
Support

rotovizmain@gmail.com

Sign-up today for our free Premium Email subscription!

© 2020 RotoViz. All rights Reserved.

Welcome Back to RotoViz...

– IF YOU HAVE ISSUES LOGGING IN PLEASE CONTACT ROTOVIZMAIN@GMAIL.COM

– PLEASE NOTE THAT ROTOVIZ USES WORDPRESS FOR ACCOUNT MANAGEMENT. IF RESETTING YOUR PASSWORD YOU MAY BE FOWARDED TO A WORDPRESS PAGE.