The 2020 Auction Draft Strategy Guide: Part 2 – ADP VS AVG Value and Auction Tiers
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Image Credit: Tom Walko/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Austin Ekeler.

Auction drafts are easy to “win” but even easier to “lose.” In this series, Dave Caban will overview the preparation, thought processes, and in-auction strategies needed to ensure that you’re ready for the intensity and challenges auctions will throw at you and are poised to leave your draft with a contender.

If you haven’t yet read The 2020 Auction Draft Strategy Guide: Part 1, be sure to check it out along with all the linked research for some background knowlege.

Now that we’ve built a knowledge base and understand the principles underlying auctions, we can turn our attention toward 2020. While extrapolating prices from other leagues to our own is a slippery slope, we can use available average values to get a sense of how players within a position are being valued relative to each other. Of course, as is always the case in fantasy football, there is a major caveat in this type of analysis — don’t forget to account for league roster settings and roster sizes. Comparing positions, relative to each other, based on average values can be dangerous. For example, if we review the prices of top-tier running backs from ESPN auctions and compare them with those of top-tier wide receivers, we need to remember that ESPN leagues allow owners to start 2RB, 2WR, and a Flex. As a result, the inherent value of the positions is similar. If your league starts 1RB and 3WR you need to keep this in mind.

I’ve often seen players do something like the following:

  • Take Austin Ekeler’s average value of $32 from ESPN. Divide it into the ESPN budget of $200 and determine that Ekeler is being valued at 16% of auction budgets.

Unfortunately, this is too basic. If ESPN leagues required that 4RBs be started his average value and thus his percentage of budget would undoubtedly be ve very different. This would also hold true if ESPN rosters necessitated an additional 10 players be rostered without increasing the $200 budget. The major takeaway here is that if your league has roster settings significantly different from those at ESPN, you should steer clear of carrying any position-to-position comparisons into your draft. You can recognize the tiers that players are being grouped into, but need to understand that their budget percentages will not hold.

The Relationship between Snake ADP and Auction Pricing

Most players have a fair amount of experience with snake drafts before delving into auctions. Naturally, this colors the way that they think about drafting. But what does the relationship between snake ADP and auction pricing look like?

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Dave Caban

Senior Fantasy Analyst, app developer, hosts the RotoViz Radio Flagship, auction draft enthusiast.

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