Groupthink can run rampant through the fantasy football grapevines and cause DFSers to concentrate on just one scenario in a player’s possible range of outcomes. What was once a good play in a vacuum can become sub-optimal as chalk. What may feel thin at first may be plus-EV at low ownership.
Because of the salary cap, DFS is about opportunity costs — finding a combination of players that will optimize the points in your lineup. Rostering player X has ripple effects throughout the rest of your lineup. We will run through some of these most important if/then roster construction decisions.
I’m primarily a small-field tournament player and will use this space to discuss specific players and roster constructions that I’m targeting on the FanDuel main slate in Week 9.
1A. If Julio Jones, Then Broncos Bring Back
If Calvin Ridley is inactive, Julio Jones ($8,200) is primed to erupt in Week 9, as he averages 16 targets when Ridley has been inactive.
But this isn’t breaking news. Jones will be one of the highest owned WRs on the slate, and for good reason. In tournaments, we don’t need to roster low owned players in every roster spot; it is okay to eat chalk in the right circumstances.
For Julio Jones chalk week, I will always include a Denver Bronco bring back. For Jones to be a “must own” on this slate, it likely comes in a game where Denver keeps up in pace with the Falcons. This doesn’t necessarily have to be a full blown game stack, but at the very least should be a Jones-plus-one-Bronco mini stack.
Jerry Jeudy ($5,700) provides salary relief, while adding correlation to the TE position with Noah Fant ($5,800) can increase your odds of hitting on the most difficult position in fantasy to predict. They both have plus-matchups versus the Falcons secondary.