Groupthink can run rampant through the fantasy football community and cause DFSers to concentrate on just one scenario in a player’s possible range of outcomes. What was once a good play in a vacuum can become sub-optimal as chalk. What may feel thin at first may be plus-EV at low ownership.
Because of the salary cap, DFS is about opportunity costs — finding a combination of players that will optimize the points in your lineup. I’m primarily a small-field tournament player and will use this space to discuss roster construction decisions I’m considering on the FanDuel main slate in Week 13.
1. Every Stack Doesn’t Need to be a Game Stack
Everyone who plays DFS by now knows that stacking increases correlation in your lineups, meaning if one player has a ceiling game, the positively correlated players are more likely to have ceiling games as well. This makes it so that rather than having to hit a 9-leg parlay, we may only need to hit essentially a 6-leg parlay in a QB-Same Team-Same Team-Opposing Team pass-catchers stack.
However, Week 13 is unique in that we only have one game where both teams are projected for more than 24 points (Browns vs Titans). While it would be great to find the outlier game that shoots out, Vegas suggests it may be difficult to spot the back-and-forth affair. It’s still reasonable to run game stacks in one-sided matchups, I would just be sure that the bring back either a) accounts for the majority of the opponent’s offensive production and/or b) is just be cheap enough where he didn’t have to do much to pay off his salary.