Blair Andrews explores the changing backfield situations in the AFC ahead of Week 13, including the emergence of an unexpected superstar, in the Ultimate Zero RB Watch List.

You don’t have to draft a Zero RB team to win at fantasy football, but it helps. Whether you did go Zero RB or not, all teams can benefit from finding some waiver wire RB stars. This weekly column will help you unearth waiver wire gems before they start to shine. Along the way, we’ll also look at changing depth chart situations to help you find trade targets and make informed start/sit decisions.

Be sure to check out Shawn Siegele’s companion piece on the NFC.

Baltimore Ravens

With Mark Ingram and J.K. Dobbins both on the reserve/COVID-19 list, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill split work against the Steelers on Wednesday afternoon. Only Hill was targeted, but Edwards got the more valuable rushing work.

Given how poorly they both played, expect Dobbins to return to the top of the depth chart upon his return.

Denver Broncos

With all of Denver’s quarterbacks out of the game due to COVID-19, the Broncos turned to practice-squad WR Kendall Hinton. He attempted nine passes but directed none of those toward RBs. When he wasn’t under center, all three of Phillip Lindsay, Melvin Gordon, and Royce Freeman took direct snaps out of the wildcat formation. Only Freeman was even mildly effective with his carries.

If Lindsay’s knee injury keeps him out in Week 13, expect Freeman to get a little extra work.

Indianapolis Colts

Nyheim Hines operated as a near-bell-cow back with Jonathan Taylor out of the lineup, leading the backfield in carries and targets. His 10 targets in Week 12 trailed only Austin Ekeler among RBs. Jordan Wilkins added four targets of his own but was in a clear backup role, playing only 35% of the snaps.

Taylor has been activated from the reserve/COVID-19 list, so don’t expect a repeat performance from Hines. That said, if the time off affects Taylor’s ability to manage a full workload in any way, it’s worth knowing that Hines has been quite a bit better in games in which Taylor carries the ball 12 times or less.^[1]This includes Week 12 and probably is best accounted for by game script — instructive splits nonetheless.

Jacksonville Jaguars

We saw Phillip Lindsay explode onto the scene as an undrafted free agent and put up two 1,000-yard seasons in a row. The next year, his team brought in Melvin Gordon. So we should probably be looking at James Robinson’s season with a bit of skepticism. We know draft position is predictive of RB opportunity for at least two seasons. But when you see the sort of workload Robinson is getting, it’s hard to be too skeptical.

Robinson was the entirety of Jacksonville’s backfield in Week 12, accounting for nearly half of their offensive opportunities. If his team were better, and he could score more TDs, we’d probably be talking about him as a more athletic version of Arian Foster. Robinson is already the RB4 in total PPR; Foster recorded offensive stats in only four games in his rookie season but finished as the RB13 on a per-game basis. Here’s what he did in Year 2: