Wide receiver prospect production has been trending downward, which could have major implications for how we evaluate incoming classes. Building on Blair’s work, Jesse Cohen tries to answer a deceptively complex question: are recent prospects actually worse, or has the curve changed?
The Worrying Trendline
In his recent piece, Blair described a worrying trend for WR prospects that seems to only be getting worse:
While several players are expected to go in the first half of the first round in the reality draft, the current class is weaker than many recent classes in terms of age-adjusted production. And it’s not only the most recent class . . . Is this a trend we should expect to continue? Structural changes in the college football landscape suggest it might be, but only time will tell.
Looking at the average Phenom Index of the top 21-ranked WR prospects across the last twenty years, the worrying trendline is clear:
It also raises the question: are the most recent wide receiver prospects actually less talented, or is there a risk of systematically undervaluing them when comparing to historicals (or both)?
