Searching for a Sure Thing in the $7,400 to $6,500 Range: PGA DFS Game Theory 2.0
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Image Credit: Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Harris English.

We’re closing out this iteration of the game theory series with the bargain range. Golfers that are priced from $7,400 to $6,500 rarely approach the top of the leaderboard. Only 0.2% of the golfers in this range go on to win the tournament. That’s not really what we’re searching for from this range. A top-15 finish is an incredible outcome here as only 10% of this range even hits that threshold. Nearly 50% of this range doesn’t even get to play the weekend. 

Ownership vs. Performance

We aren’t particularly good at deciding who to roster down in this range. 

Ownership Group Ceiling Rate DK Points Above Tournament Floor
Mega Chalk 17.3% 24.8
Chalk 18% 25.5
Medium Owned 16.5% 22.5
Low Owned 18.6% 19.9

A theme is developing here. From a macro perspective, we aren’t great at identifying good bargains. There is something to be said for the DK Point differences of the higher-owned golfers but, even then, it’s a pretty small edge. If we use a threshold of the actual ownership percentage, we see slightly better results.

Ownership Threshold Ceiling Rate
10% and Up 20%
9.99% and Lower 17%

There are some tournaments where multiple golfers hit this threshold and others where nobody in this range sees double-digit ownership. If you see that a golfer hits double-digit ownership, though, it’s probably a good sign. 

Can PRK Help?

This range is subject to an incredible amount of variance. Golfers in this salary range make up a bigger chunk of the field than any other range. Some golfers here are getting hot at the right time, some are cooling off. PRK skews towards long-term form so it doesn’t necessarily adjust to quick spurts of hot form.

PRK Group Ceiling Rate DK Points Above Tournament Floor
61 or Higher 18.6% 25.7
60 or Lower 17% 22.1

There’s still an edge to be found by splitting this cohort up by PRK Score but paying attention to recent form is very important in this range. Like most things in DFS, it’s important to mix the science with some art every so often.

Checking The Boxes

There’s not much signal at all from price changes in this range. That makes intuitive sense. Golfers that jump up from the sub-$6,500 range are most likely coming off of a good performance. Golfers that dip down into this range are likely more talented golfers going through a brief cold streak. 

  • Power Ranking Score above 61
  • Projected Ownership of at least 10%
Boxes Checked Ceiling Rate DK Points Above Tournament Floor
2 20% 26.1
1 17.8% 25.1
0 17.5% 22

Again, we see that checking off a few simple boxes can make a significant difference. Only about 5% of our sample is made up of golfers that check off both boxes here. When we find these golfers, they’re must-plays. 

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