Every year there are college running backs whose counting stats underrate (or overrate) their true ability. This is especially true following the 2020 season, in which many teams played only a handful of games. Among the most powerful adjustments we can make in order to correct for the problem of counting stats is to use the Backfield Dominator Rating (BDR).
If you’ve forgotten or perhaps never knew what BDR is, here’s a refresher: BDR measures an RB’s share of his team’s backfield production — that is, it measures his production as a percentage of the production of every RB on his team. This enables the metric not only to account for pace and team quality, but also for schematic elements that may limit overall RB touches in a variety of ways. BDR has correctly identified under-the-radar breakout stars like Phillip Lindsay and Aaron Jones.[1] Indeed, throughout the draft, those who excel at BDR tend to outperform those who do not.
The 2021 class comes in with many question marks, due in part to the fact that many of them played less than a full season in their final collegiate year, if they played at all.[2] Nevertheless, as BDR is scaled as a percentage of team production, it’s a useful way to compare players across classes even when the number of games played differs widely. So how does the 2021 class stack up?
