Last summer, I looked at big gap and small gap running backs to identify undervalued backs based on their ADP. The idea comes from Jack Miller’s research on the win and hit rates for big or small gap backs, and from similar research by Charlie Kleinheksel before that. First, let’s define our terms: B1 and B2 running backs refer to a team’s RB1 and RB2 in backfields where there is an ADP gap of 98.5 or more. Those in backfields with a smaller gap between the RB1 and RB2 are referred to as S1 and S2, respectively.
Historically, B1 and S2 backs have produced the best win rates, but at very different costs. B2 backs have produced average win rates, while S1 backs have historically been the worst performers. Today we’ll focus on big gap RBs who might provide an edge in our fantasy drafts. Although it’s early, we’ll use the FFPC Redraft ADP and identify big gap running backs. We’ll look at small gap backs in a future piece.
With such a large ADP gap for B1 and B2 backs, the market seems to think the talent or opportunity gap remains wide. This is likely true. However, we might uncover some data that causes us to hesitate with some of these B1 backs. Three backfields stand out as good opportunities for further exploration.