Welcome to Going Deep! This weekly article will make use of charting data, advanced metrics, and other RotoViz tools, specifically the newly released Passing Game Matchup Rater, to help readers better understand the challenges facing wide receivers and tight ends in the coming week.

As this article will leverage a great deal of information from the Passing Game Matchup Rater, let’s take a quick walkthrough of the tool.

The Passing Game Matchup Rater

The Passing Game Matchup Rater (PGMR) consists of four tabs.

• Target Explorer
  • This tab allows users to explore every passing target thrown in 2021 and 2022.
  • For each target, the receiver and primary defender are listed.
  • Targets can be filtered by week, defender, offensive team, defensive team, position, side of field, and an abundance of other variables.
  • This allows users to identify, at the player or team level, stats such as average air yards, catchable percentage, and reception rate.
  • Users can isolate targets to review the outcomes when Player A was targeted against Defender B, for example.
• Alignment Detail
  • This tab displays, for the selected time period, the 10 offensive and defensive players that recorded the highest snap share on passing plays.
  • For each player, information relating to their pre-snap alignment is included.
  • This allows users to better understand how often players are positioned across alignments which is important in understanding the coverage that a player is likely to see.
• Matchup Ratings
  • Using the alignment information and target matchup detail, this tab rates each WRs and TEs matchup for the coming week. It considers, for example, how often a player lines up in the left slot, and how well the defense has defended fantasy-relevant players when lined up in this position. This process is performed across alignments.
  • The default ratings included when the tool is first loaded are based on the six most-recent weeks. (It is recommended that a minimum of six games are used. I’ll update if needed, but a range of six to eight games is likely the sweet spot.)
  • Ratings are scaled so that 100 represents the most favorable matchup that could be reasonably expected when using a range of six or more games. Keep in mind that the ratings are not attempting to predict how well a player will perform in a given week. They are simply rating the favorability of a player’s matchup given his alignment history and how the defense has performed against that alignment. As a result, “bad” players might be at the top of the list.
    • Of course, there is a point-per-game filter that allows users to limit the list based on points per game.
  • The major takeaway here is that this tab really does the overwhelming majority of work for us. The higher the rating, the more favorable the matchup.
• Position v Defense Thresholds
  • This tab simply counts the average number of WRs and TEs per game, for the selected week range and, that eclipsed the included thresholds.
  • Average points allowed per game to the top-48 WRs and top-24 TEs, for the selected week range, are also included.

Important Caveats

• Keep in mind that the ratings for the beginning of the season will be largely based on 2021 data. Due to players changing teams, coaching changes, and a variety of other factors, these ratings will not be as descriptive of the current week as they will be midway through the season.
• Just because a player has a good matchup in the coming week doesn’t mean he’s going to have a great game. The same is true in the reverse scenario.
  • Consider matchup ratings as an input when choosing between two or three players for start/sit decisions. Don’t sit one of your studs simply because he has an unfavorable matchup.

Week 1 WR Ratings with 6.0 Point Per Game Filter

• The Patriot’s offense didn’t look great against the Dolphins but Jakobi Meyer’s typical alignment allocation produces a strong rating for New England’s matchup with Pittsburgh. Since Week 14 of 2021, Meyers has run 77% of routes from the slot. As a result, he can expect coverage from Cameron Sutton and Levi Wallace. As a duo, the tandem is surrendering 17.0 points per game (PPG) on direct targets.
• Drake London’s career started with a solid with five receptions and 74 yards against the Saints. In this game, his alignment was spread between both sides of the field fairly evenly and his snaps were well distributed between the slot and out wide. London will look to capitalize on the eighth most-favorable rating of the week. Though Jalen Ramsey is a talented player, this doesn’t necessarily prevent opposing receivers from scoring fantasy points. London might not be on the level of some of the receivers Ramsey faced between Week 15 of 2021 through the playoffs, but it’s notable that Ramsey allowed approximately eight PPG to be scored on him via direct targets in this stretch. The takeaway here is that despite there being a bigger name on the other side of the field, that isn’t a compelling reason to shy away from deploying the rookie.
• Mike Evans heads into a matchup with the Saints with one of the lowest matchup ratings of the week. He did get the better of Marshon Lattimore last season by scoring a 41-yard touchdown on him in Week 8 of 2021. In that contest, Lattimore was in direct coverage on four targets aimed at Evans. He allowed two receptions for a total of 48 yards and the aforementioned score. In Week 15, Evans saw just one target against Lattimore; a 14-yard reception. Of course, Lattimore isn’t the only defensive back he’ll face, and as a group, New Orlean’s secondary is well-positioned to defend players that are deployed in ways similar to Evans. It’s also troubling that Evans sat out practice on Thursday and is dealing with a calf injury.
• Tyreek Hill got off to an exciting start in Miami by turning 12 targets into eight receptions and 94 yards. He opposes the Ravens in Week 2, a team that ranks toward the top of 20.0 plus games surrendered in recent weeks. Hill will see significant coverage from Marlon Humphrey when lined up in the slot. In recent games, Humphrey has allowed 12.1 points on direct targets per game. Unsurprisingly, Jaylen Waddle also draws a favorable matchup which is rated as the tenth most favorable of the week.
• Jerry Jeudy is in the slot on nearly 80% of targets. He’ll face significant coverage from Desmond King who is allowing 5.7 PPG on direct targets.^[1]An average rate for CBs that often cover the slot.   In recent games, Waddle is arguably the player most like Jeudy to oppose King. Waddle managed 8.3 points on four targets when covered by King.
• D.J. Moore will spend a lot of time covered by Adoree Jackson and Aaron Robinson. Both corners move between sides of the field and alignments. As a duo, the New York defenders are allowing just 6.2 PPG on direct targets. Unsurprisingly, their presence contributes to his poor rating. Further compounding a poor outlook for Moore is the fact that the Giants have been one of the most difficult matchups for WRs across all threshold metrics included in the Passing Game Matchup Rater.