###### Which Metrics Predict Year 2 Breakouts? – The Wrong Read, No. 74

Earlier this week I explored George Pickens’ chances for a Year 2 breakout. While he’s got a lot going in his favor, there are some red flags. But it does raise the question of which metrics actually matter for predicting Year 2 breakouts. Which red flags should we actually be concerned about? Which metrics are so important that they drown out any red flags?

## How to Find Which Metrics Predict Year 2 Breakouts

To answer these questions I used the RotoViz Screener to get rookie and Year 2 data for every wide receiver in the NFL since 2000. It’s possible to use the Screener directly to run a linear regression, but it’s hard to use that output to rank metrics in terms of importance. Instead, I split the dataset according to whether a player scored 200 points in Year 2. The goal is to see what differences in Year 1 metrics arise when we compare those players who broke out in Year 2 against those who did not. (We’re ignoring players who scored 200 points in Year 1 — those players count as rookie breakouts.)

### Scaling the Data

In order to avoid problems of scale, I standardized each metric using z-scores. The idea there is to transform each metric from its native unit (yards, touchdowns, percentage points, etc.) into a unit that can be compared across metrics. Z-scores do this by telling us how many standard deviations above or below a given metric’s mean each observation falls.

### How to Understand Z-Scores

For example, the average height of every player in the dataset is about 72.6 inches. Pickens’ height of 75 inches is exactly one standard deviation above the average, so his height gets a z-score of 1.0. Drake London’s height of 76 inches is 1.5 standard deviations above the average, so he gets a score of 1.5 for height. On the other hand, Wan’Dale Robinson’s height of 68 inches is two full standard deviations below the mean, so he gets a score of -2.0.

Once we have these z-scores, we can average and compare them based on whether a player broke out in Year 2 or not. The chart below shows the average z-score in each metric for breakouts and non-breakouts.

• A treasure trove of our most insightful articles that will teach you the metrics that matter, time-tested winning strategies, the approaches that will give you an edge, and teach you how to be an effective fantasy manager.
• Revolutionary Tools
• Including the NFL Stat Explorer, Weekly GLSP Projections, NCAA Prospect Box Score Scout, Combine Explorer, Range of Outcomes App, DFS Lineup Optimizer, Best Ball Suite,and many, many, more.
• Groundbreaking Articles
• RotoViz is home of the original Zero-RB article and continues to push fantasy gamers forward as the go-to destination for evidence-based analysis and strategic advantages.
• Weekly Projections
• Built using RotoViz’s unique GLSP approach.
• Expert Rankings
• And a whole lot more…

#### Blair Andrews

Managing Editor, Author of The Wrong Read, Occasional Fantasy Football League Winner. All opinions are someone else's.

### My Favorite Targets in Each Round of Early Underdog Drafts: Part 2 – The Correlation Picks

Best Ball Mania IV is in full swing, and player ADPs are becoming more rigid every day as drafters anchor to the number next to a player’s name. This situation gives savvy drafters an advantage though, as it makes it much easier to plan a draft round-by-round. Using our Underdog ADP tool — now with the ability to show an ADP Draft Grid — we…...

### My Favorite Targets in Each Round of Early Underdog Drafts: Part 1 – The Foundation Picks

Best Ball Mania IV is in full swing, and player ADPs are becoming more rigid every day as drafters anchor to the number next to a player’s name. This situation gives savvy drafters an advantage though, as it makes it much easier to plan a draft round-by-round. Using our Underdog ADP tool — now with the ability to show an ADP Draft Grid — we…...

### This Method for Crushing Underdog Tournaments With Rookie RBs Is Counterintuitive But Powerful

In Part 1, Blair Andrews argued that Jahmyr Gibbs is undervalued in best ball, even at his current valuation, right at the Round 3/4 turn. Rookie running backs drafted in the first 100 reality picks — especially those who are young — have a better chance than most other RBs to put up big scores in the fantasy playoffs. But an obvious question remains: can…...

### My Favorite Targets in Each Round of Early Underdog Drafts: Part 2 – The Correlation Picks

Best Ball Mania IV is in full swing, and player ADPs are becoming more rigid every day as drafters anchor to the number next to a player’s name. This situation gives savvy drafters an advantage though, as it makes it much easier to plan a draft round-by-round. Using our Underdog ADP tool — now with the ability to show an ADP Draft Grid — we…...

### My Favorite Targets in Each Round of Early Underdog Drafts: Part 1 – The Foundation Picks

Best Ball Mania IV is in full swing, and player ADPs are becoming more rigid every day as drafters anchor to the number next to a player’s name. This situation gives savvy drafters an advantage though, as it makes it much easier to plan a draft round-by-round. Using our Underdog ADP tool — now with the ability to show an ADP Draft Grid — we…...

### This Method for Crushing Underdog Tournaments With Rookie RBs Is Counterintuitive But Powerful

In Part 1, Blair Andrews argued that Jahmyr Gibbs is undervalued in best ball, even at his current valuation, right at the Round 3/4 turn. Rookie running backs drafted in the first 100 reality picks — especially those who are young — have a better chance than most other RBs to put up big scores in the fantasy playoffs. But an obvious question remains: can…...

# The Blitz

##### Support

rotovizmain@gmail.com

Sign-up today for our free Premium Email subscription!