Can We Find The Next David Montgomery Among The 2022 Rookie Class?
Image Credit: Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: David Montgomery.

We know that opportunity is crucial for running backs, especially those entering Year 2. In David Montgomery’s rookie season, he totaled the 12th-most opportunities at 277. Montgomery posted two RB1 performances (12%), with three RB2 games (19%). However, he had a low floor of 7.2 PPR/G or an RB3 or worst in 69% of those contests. He averaged -1.5 FPOE/G (No. 128), partly due to the team context and inefficiency. Yet, Montgomery’s 12.4 EP/G (No. 23) provided optimism in the high-value touch department and projected usage. Can we find another rookie who follows a Montgomery-type path?

It turns out that a 2022 rookie running back followed a similar path with volume and inefficiency on one of the worst offenses.

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Corbin Young

A Dominant Veteran and Some Breakout Backs: 2 Big Gap Backfields and Offenses To Target

Corbin Young July 18, 2024

Last time we looked at small gap running backs and identified some undervalued veterans and young backs based on their ADP. Today we’ll cover two big gap backfields, including a veteran joining a new high-powered offense and a breakout running back valued similarly to last season. The idea of small gap and big gap RBs comes from Jack Miller’s research on the win and hit rates…...

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Veterans and Young Running Backs: 2 Small Gap Backfields Offer Opportunities for a Variety of Strategic Approaches

Corbin Young July 8, 2024

Last time, we looked at small gap running backs on two teams with new offensive coordinators to identify undervalued players based on their ADP. Today we’ll cover two more small gap running backs, including a veteran and a younger option. The idea of small gap and big gap RBs comes from Jack Miller’s research on the win and hit rates for big or small gap backs,…...

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Is Najee Harris Finally a Bargain? 2 Small Gap Backfields With New Offensive Coordinators

Corbin Young June 26, 2024

In the past, we’ve looked at big gap and small gap running backs to identify undervalued players based on their ADP. The idea comes from Jack Miller’s research on the win and hit rates for big or small gap backs, and from similar research by Charlie Kleinheksel before that. First, let’s define our terms: B1 and B2 running backs refer to a team’s RB1 and…...

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A Dominant Veteran and Some Breakout Backs: 2 Big Gap Backfields and Offenses To Target

Corbin Young July 18, 2024

Last time we looked at small gap running backs and identified some undervalued veterans and young backs based on their ADP. Today we’ll cover two big gap backfields, including a veteran joining a new high-powered offense and a breakout running back valued similarly to last season. The idea of small gap and big gap RBs comes from Jack Miller’s research on the win and hit rates…...

Already a member? Log in here

Veterans and Young Running Backs: 2 Small Gap Backfields Offer Opportunities for a Variety of Strategic Approaches

Corbin Young July 8, 2024

Last time, we looked at small gap running backs on two teams with new offensive coordinators to identify undervalued players based on their ADP. Today we’ll cover two more small gap running backs, including a veteran and a younger option. The idea of small gap and big gap RBs comes from Jack Miller’s research on the win and hit rates for big or small gap backs,…...

Already a member? Log in here

Is Najee Harris Finally a Bargain? 2 Small Gap Backfields With New Offensive Coordinators

Corbin Young June 26, 2024

In the past, we’ve looked at big gap and small gap running backs to identify undervalued players based on their ADP. The idea comes from Jack Miller’s research on the win and hit rates for big or small gap backs, and from similar research by Charlie Kleinheksel before that. First, let’s define our terms: B1 and B2 running backs refer to a team’s RB1 and…...

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