Which Metrics Predict Year 2 Breakouts for Running Backs? The Wrong Read, No. 75
Image Credit: Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Rachaad White.

In the 75th installment of The Wrong Read, Blair Andrews takes a deep dive into the metrics that best help us find Year 2 running back breakouts. Does efficiency make a difference? Can we beat draft position? Are we looking for different profiles from late picks compared to early picks?

Last week I explored which Year 1 metrics help us predict Year 2 wide receiver breakouts. I did that by converting Year 1 metrics into z-scores so that we could compare the differences between breakouts and non-breakouts. Check out that article for a complete explanation of the methodology.

Today we’re doing the same exercise for running backs. There are a few important differences to note. First, I’m still using 200 points as a breakout threshold. That sounds the same as at wide receiver, but because there are fewer running backs to hit that number each season, it turns out to be a more demanding threshold. Therefore, the number of breakouts is lower than at wide receiver, and this has some implications for which metrics show up as most meaningful.

The other main difference is that RBs tend to break out in Year 1 at a higher rate than WRs, compared to the rate of Year 2 breakouts. This again lowers the total number of Year 2 RB breakouts, which does change which metrics look important. I’ll discuss those differences and the implications more as we encounter them.

The Most Important Metrics for Finding RB Breakouts

First, let’s look at which metrics are most important for when trying to find Year 2 RB breakouts.

Please subscribe For Full Access to all RotoViz content and tools!

 

What’s included in your subscription??

  • Exclusive Access to RotoViz Study Hall
    • A treasure trove of our most insightful articles that will teach you the metrics that matter, time-tested winning strategies, the approaches that will give you an edge, and teach you how to be an effective fantasy manager.
  • Revolutionary Tools
    • Including the NFL Stat Explorer, Weekly GLSP Projections, NCAA Prospect Box Score Scout, Combine Explorer, Range of Outcomes App, DFS Lineup Optimizer, Best Ball Suite,and many, many, more.
  • Groundbreaking Articles
    • RotoViz is home of the original Zero-RB article and continues to push fantasy gamers forward as the go-to destination for evidence-based analysis and strategic advantages.
  • Weekly Projections
    • Built using RotoViz’s unique GLSP approach.
  • Expert Rankings
  • And a whole lot more…

Blair Andrews

Managing Editor, Author of The Wrong Read, Occasional Fantasy Football League Winner. All opinions are someone else's.

How to Build a Contrarian March Madness Bracket: Win Probabilities, Potential Upsets, and Advanced Strategy for the 2024 NCAA Tournament

NFL free agency may be winding down, but our favorite prospects are getting ready for pro days, and best ball drafts are heating up. Yet I have only one thing on my mind: winning my friends and family March Madness pool. The key to winning, as RotoViz readers will already know, is not simply to pick the teams most likely to advance. It’s to pick…...

Gabe Davis’ Impressive Peripherals Hide Some Concerning Advanced Metrics, But Can He Still Provide the Boost Jacksonville Is Looking For?

The Jaguars were one of the first movers in free agency, signing wide receiver Gabe Davis to a three-year deal worth a maximum of $50 million (with $24 million fully guaranteed). Davis has been one of the premier long-touchdown specialists of the last few years, even as many of his key metrics are routinely underwhelming. Yet after Calvin Ridley signed with the Tennessee Titans, Davis…...

How to Build a Contrarian March Madness Bracket: Win Probabilities, Potential Upsets, and Advanced Strategy for the 2024 NCAA Tournament

NFL free agency may be winding down, but our favorite prospects are getting ready for pro days, and best ball drafts are heating up. Yet I have only one thing on my mind: winning my friends and family March Madness pool. The key to winning, as RotoViz readers will already know, is not simply to pick the teams most likely to advance. It’s to pick…...

Gabe Davis’ Impressive Peripherals Hide Some Concerning Advanced Metrics, But Can He Still Provide the Boost Jacksonville Is Looking For?

The Jaguars were one of the first movers in free agency, signing wide receiver Gabe Davis to a three-year deal worth a maximum of $50 million (with $24 million fully guaranteed). Davis has been one of the premier long-touchdown specialists of the last few years, even as many of his key metrics are routinely underwhelming. Yet after Calvin Ridley signed with the Tennessee Titans, Davis…...

The Blitz

Connect
Support

rotovizmain@gmail.com

Sign-up today for our free Premium Email subscription!

Data provided by

© 2021 RotoViz. All rights Reserved.

Welcome Back to RotoViz...

– IF YOU HAVE ISSUES LOGGING IN PLEASE CONTACT ROTOVIZMAIN@GMAIL.COM

– PLEASE NOTE THAT ROTOVIZ USES WORDPRESS FOR ACCOUNT MANAGEMENT. IF RESETTING YOUR PASSWORD YOU MAY BE FOWARDED TO A WORDPRESS PAGE.