My previous article examined which metrics are most predictive for wide receivers. I was concerned in that piece to show which metrics were both stable (predicted themselves) and useful (predicted fantasy points.) Today I want to ask a slightly different but even more important question: which WR metrics are most valuable? That is, which metrics give us an edge in fantasy drafts?
It doesn’t help us to know which metrics predict fantasy points if those are the same metrics everyone else is chasing. We need to know not only which metrics best predict fantasy points, but also which metrics best predict future ADP. If a metric predicts ADP better than it predicts fantasy points, then we probably can’t gain much of an edge by chasing it. On the other hand, if a metric predicts fantasy points better than ADP, there’s a good chance it’s undervalued, and can help us to find undervalued receivers in our drafts.
The table below lists several popular (and not so popular) wide receiver metrics and their correlations with both future ADP and future fantasy points. Below the table I’ll offer a few observations, and also point out a few players who we should take a closer look at based on this analysis.
Note: because I’ve removed players who didn’t have an ADP in both Year N and Year N+1, the correlations for fantasy points might be slightly different than what was reported in the previous article.