The Wrong Read has had many lives — first as a reflection on insights from the RotoViz podcasts; then as a freeform space for exploring a variety of metrics and strategies. It will likely continue in that latter function, but at least for now — in season — it’s an in-depth matchup lookahead article.

Each week I’ll gather advanced stats from our tools — mainly the Advanced Team Stat Explorer — to paint a picture of the upcoming week and offer some thoughts on how the games might unfold. My interest is in how the games will impact fantasy teams, and as such I’m looking mainly at the metrics that I think can help us predict how different teams and players will (or won’t) score fantasy points.

Here’s an early week preview featuring the Thursday night game. Stay tuned for the full version later in the week.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

Both the Ravens and Bengals are coming off of what should have been avoidable losses and are hoping to redeem themselves against a tough divisional opponent. The Bengals will play without Tee Higgins for at least one more game. Tyler Boyd stepped up in his absence last week, but we should expect the offense to be at least somewhat hampered without Higgins.

Playing without Higgins was not a big problem against the Houston Texans, but it could be disastrous against Baltimore’s passing defense. No team allows less average WR separation or less total passing game FPOE. Only one team allows less EPA per attempt, and only two allow a lower passing success rate. The Bengals’ offensive line is No. 4 in pressure rate allowed, but the Ravens lead the league in sacks despite a barely above-average pressure rate. The one factor which may limit Baltimore’s defense is the likely absence of Marlon Humphrey, who is listed as doubtful with a calf injury. Without him, the Ravens’ secondary is still one of the best in the league, but perhaps ever-so-slightly more vulnerable.

The Ravens are more beatable on the ground, but that’s probably not a reliable way for the Bengals to attack. Cincinnati is No. 30 in yards before contact, and a bottom-eight team in evasion rate, EPA per carry, success rate, and boom rate. Baltimore has allowed evaded tackles and yards after contact — we saw it against Cleveland last week — but the Bengals may not have the wherewithal to take advantage of Baltimore’s defensive deficiencies.

They also may not have the opportunity, as the Bengals’ defense may not be able to keep Baltimore’s offense off the scoreboard. Cincinnati is a bottom-five team in most advanced rush defense categories. The Ravens are a top-five team in nearly every advanced rushing metric. Their rushing game has only looked stronger with the emergence of Keaton Mitchell. His health entering Week 10 may have contributed to his limited touches, but he enters Week 11 with no injury designation. After gaining 66 yards on just four touches, it’s in Baltimore’s interest to get the ball in his hands more often. Only two teams allow more rushing FPOE than the Bengals, and Mitchell leads all RBs in rushing FPOE over the last two weeks.

The Ravens don’t pass often, but they are one of the most successful teams when they do. Only three teams have a higher passing success rate. Cincinnati is No. 25 in passing success rate allowed and No. 24 in passing boom rate allowed. This looks like a game in which Lamar Jackson should have a fairly easy time making plays. The main complication is that starting left tackle Ronnie Stanley has been ruled out with a knee injury. Against the Bengals’ No. 7 pass rush, this could end up having an impact.