The Wrong Read has had many lives — first as a reflection on insights from the RotoViz podcasts; then as a freeform space for exploring a variety of metrics and strategies. It will likely continue in that latter function, but at least for now — in season — it’s an in-depth matchup lookahead article.
Each week I’ll gather advanced stats from our tools — mainly the Advanced Team Stat Explorer — to paint a picture of the upcoming week and offer some thoughts on how the games might unfold. My interest is in how the games will impact fantasy teams, and as such I’m looking mainly at the metrics that I think can help us predict how different teams and players will (or won’t) score fantasy points.
Here’s an early week preview featuring the Thursday night game. Stay tuned for the full version later in the week.
Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers
At this point in the season, we’re getting a large enough sample that each team’s numbers are fairly reliable. However, both teams in the Week 9 Thursday night matchup are starting quarterbacks who are making their second 2023 appearance. The Steelers come in with some of the worst advanced passing stats, but almost none of those numbers are a reflection of Mitch Trubisky at QB. On the other hand, is it very reasonable to expect that Trubisky could be an improvement? Neither Trubisky nor Kenny Pickett have been effective when throwing to Diontae Johnson, but Pickett has been ever-so-slightly better.
They have both been better when targeting George Pickens, but Pickett has especially benefited from Pickens’ dominance at the catch point and ability after the catch.
The point is, there’s reason to think Trubisky is a downgrade for the entire offense. And when you are already ranked 31st in passing success rate and passing boom rate, that’s saying something. The Titans’ pass defense isn’t that scary in most areas, but they do generate a high pressure rate, which could cause even more trouble for Trubisky behind Pittsburgh’s No. 22 offensive line.
Will Levis is also making his second appearance, but unlike Trubisky, he so far appears to be a major upgrade for Tennessee’s passing game. He tossed four touchdown passes on just 29 attempts. It’s only one game, but Levis’ AYA numbers so far are comical, especially in comparison to the Pittsburgh duo’s.
We can’t expect Levis’ connection with DeAndre Hopkins and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine to keep up this level of efficiency, but there’s no doubt it was a promising start to his NFL career. The Steelers’ pass defense is slightly more challenging than the Falcons’, ranking ninth in passing EPA allowed per attempt (Atlanta ranked 23rd going into last week). However, they do allow a big passing play on more than 25% of their opponents’ attempts. If Levis continues taking shots downfield and his receivers can get open like they did against Atlanta (which had a similar rank to Pittsburgh in average WR separation), then we could be in for another multi-TD day.
Despite how good Levis looked last week, Tennessee would prefer to protect him by relying on their running game. Derrick Henry and Tyjae Spears have combined for a No. 3 ranking in yards after contact per carry this season, and only one team allows more yards after contact on average than the Steelers.
Pittsburgh won’t have the same luxury, and won’t be able to protect Trubisky in quite the same way. The Steelers’ backs are No. 30 in EPA per rush attempt and No. 29 in rushing success rate. No rushing offense has a higher stuff rate or a higher hit-at-line rate. Both Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren are averaging less than 4.0 yards per carry. Harris is averaging just 0.8 yards before contact per attempt. He’s been credited with only four missed tackles on 84 carries. Meanwhile, the Titans’ rushing defense ranks inside the top 10 in most advanced rushing metrics. Only three teams are allowing a lower rushing boom rate or a lower first down rate. If Levis and the Titans can engineer some quick scores, and Tennessee can keep Pittsburgh’s backs in check, we could end up seeing a game with a lot of Trubisky pass attempts, which has to be a good thing for the Titans’ defense.
