Elite Onesies, Bye Weeks, and Opportunity Cost: The High-Wire Balancing Act of a Real-Life Underdog Draft
Image Credit: Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: C.J. Stroud.

As results try to stay ahead of wide receiver inflation, the 2024 landscape offers serious pressure to load up on the position early, especially as RB options in Rounds 2 through 5 are less appealing. Yet this is easier said than done in some ways. It’s also more important than ever to come away with at least one — and in some cases preferably two — of the elite tight ends. Last year it was possible to draft TEs with elite upside in the double-digit rounds. Sam LaPorta and Trey McBride were the keys to a lot of fantasy victories. This year, LaPorta is going in the third round of Underdog drafts, and McBride is going in the fourth. If you wait too long at the position, you’re left without any options who can give you the elite ceiling that can set your team apart.

While balancing the need to get early WRs and the need to get early TEs is tricky enough, you also have to be flexible enough to take advantage of good values at quarterback and running back — especially those that fit so well on your team. Yet there are significant tradeoffs and opportunity costs for grabbing these values as they fall to you. You can plan out your draft as carefully as you like, but when you’re on the clock these decision points become much more difficult. Ben Gretch and I discovered this first hand in a recent Best Ball Mania 5 draft we did on the RotoViz Best Ball Show.

The team we ended up drafting is good, not great. It’s probably not a $1.5 million team, but it has some pieces that could help with a deep playoff run, if it can survive the regular season. As Adam Savage of Mythbusters fame is fond of saying, “the only difference between screwing around and science is writing it down.” It’s in that spirit that I think it’s helpful to analyze the teams you draft, especially when they don’t go exactly as planned. It’s probably the only way to systematically correct your mistakes and improve your on-the-clock decision-making.

The Early Picks

Ben and I were drafting out of the seventh position, and we knew we wanted to take early WRs. Our first three picks were relatively straightforward.

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Blair Andrews

Managing Editor, Author of The Wrong Read, Occasional Fantasy Football League Winner. All opinions are someone else's.

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At RotoViz, we like to look at NFL prospects’ collegiate production as a foundational data point in making predictions. The best predictor of whether a player will succeed in the NFL is whether they succeeded in college. But it would be a mistake to think that size and speed don’t matter. Indeed, for a long time, we’ve relied on Freak Scores to find wide receiver…...

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The Upcoming Rookie Class Is Breaking the Models, Part 3: The 2026 Wide Receiver Freak Score Leaderboard

We’ve already explored the top running back and tight end athletes in the 2026 rookie class. In both groups we found players setting new records and forcing us to rethink both our models and our priors. But Freak Scores were designed first and foremost to find wide receiver profiles with an advantage in the red zone and around the goal line. The theory has always…...

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The Upcoming Rookie Class Is Breaking the Models, Part 2: The 2026 Tight End Freak Score Leaderboard

Last time, we looked at the freak athletes of the 2026 class at the running back position, including one prospect who literally forces us to rescale the metric (look for some updates on that front coming soon). No RB who ran at the combine has a Freak Score below 50 — no RB who participated was slower than 4.56 seconds in the 40-yard dash. And the…...

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The Upcoming Rookie Class Is Breaking the Models: The 2026 Running Back Freak Score Leaderboard

At RotoViz, we like to look at NFL prospects’ collegiate production as a foundational data point in making predictions. The best predictor of whether a player will succeed in the NFL is whether they succeeded in college. But it would be a mistake to think that size and speed don’t matter. Indeed, for a long time, we’ve relied on Freak Scores to find wide receiver…...

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