After the Bears signed D’Andre Swift to a three-year, $24.5 million contract early in free agency, it was evident that the team planned on making him their lead back in 2024. Swift’s signing put a damper on the outlook of both Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert, but as Swift has never been a workhorse, it is still likely that a significant portion of the rushing workload will be available this season.
The Bears appeared in the NFL’s kickoff to the preseason – the Hall of Fame Game – and both backup RBs saw some run in the game. As this game represents an added preseason game to the teams competing in it, rarely do any players of significance see considerable playing time. Johnson opened with the starters and played 15 snaps. During his time on the field, Johnson was given the ball on almost half of his snaps; finishing with six carries for 24 yards, and one reception on one target for seven yards. Herbert then played 10 snaps after Johnson left; recording four carries for 35 yards.
It was good news for Johnson’s stock that he was seeing work over Herbert, but his production was nothing to write home about. Herbert definitely popped more with his opportunities, but it is better not to read too much into the NFL’s least important exhibition game of the season. If anything, it did raise some interest into how the backs would continue to be prioritized moving forward.
And then, for the rest of the preseason: crickets.
At least as far as Johnson is concerned.
What is going on with Roschon Johnson? There has been zero news.
— Best Ball Enjoyer (@BestBallEnjoyer) August 26, 2024
@CourtneyRCronin you’re the best source we have, what is up with Roschon Johnson? Haven’t seen any injury news on him or any other status which would say why he has his picture on a milk carton. Have you heard anything?
— Lenny Nowak 🟦 (@lsnowak) August 27, 2024
In the team’s second preseason game, both Swift and Herbert saw time with the first-team offense while Caleb Williams was on the field. In the third preseason game, Herbert was the only RB of the trio to see time with the starting unit.
With literally no news signaling Johnson was injured, on the roster bubble, or the clear RB2, fantasy drafters were left to speculate all preseason how to value the Bears backup RBs. Following the Hall of Fame game, Johnson held a slight edge in ADP in the FFPC’s Best Ball Tournament. After Johnson’s absence in the team’s second preseason game, the two flipped, and the gap has been widening ever since.
Earlier in the offseason, I touted both Herbert and Johnson as players that should be given another shot this season after underperforming expectations last season. When looking at the Advanced Stat Explorer, Herbert was the slightly more effective runner last season. Johnson earned more work in the passing game, but both RBs were similarly effective on a per-route basis.
Last season, Swift saw his high-water mark with 16 games played. In his previous three seasons, he missed at least three games each year with injury. Swift has also seen his efficiency fluctuate across his career, sporting two seasons as the RB17 or better in FPOE per game, and two seasons as the RB70 or worse. With a history of getting dinged up coupled with unpredictable production, it is very likely that at least one backup RB in the Chicago offense — if not both — will see significant work this season.
Coming out of Texas last year, Johnson was touted as having a three-down skill set. This overlaps significantly with Swift and may limit Johnson’s upside at the start of the season. In this regard, Herbert may make the better complement out of the gate. But Herbert himself is no stranger to injury, missing at least four games in each of the past two seasons.
In 2023, none of the Bears’ current RBs set the NFL on fire with their efficiency. With the fragility of the RB position on display in both Swift’s and Herbert’s injury histories, it would not be surprising to see either continue to miss time in 2024. With neither RB likely to take on a workhorse role, Johnson will probably get a shot to see significant action in Chicago at some point this season. While Johnson’s limited preseason usage – and lack of information explaining it — was baffling to say the least, his upside in the final rounds of best ball tournaments stood out as a clear value all offseason. Johnson is best left on waivers in managed leagues with shallow benches, but is a player to monitor early in the season. We will hopefully get some closure on the mystery of Johnson’s 2024 preseason soon, and for those of us who chose to buy into the uncertainty, let’s hope that he ends up as one of the best values in all of fantasy at the end of the season.
