Can Matthew Golden Earn Enough Volume to Return Value in His Rookie Season?

Kevin Szafraniec
May 13, 2025

Matthew Golden was one of 2024’s biggest risers after transferring from Houston and becoming the WR1 for a Texas Longhorns team that made it to the College Football Playoff Semifinals. He then went on to generate even more buzz by setting the track on fire at the combine with a 4.29-second forty time.

While his draft rise was impressive, there are still enough questions about his production profile and landing spot in Green Bay for fantasy managers to be apprehensive. Will Golden prove that his first-round draft capital should be enough to squash any concerns about his role in Year 1, or could we have to wait until 2026 or later before seeing the best that Golden has to offer?

Matthew Golden’s NFL Comps

Golden was able to show some promise as a freshman at Houston before trudging through an injury-riddled sophomore season that included a strained groin and a season-ending turf toe injury. Golden’s arrival in Austin was overshadowed by Alabama transfer Isaiah Bond, but it did not take long for him to blow past Bond on the Longhorns’ depth chart. While Golden’s 2024 counting stats look considerably better than his previous college seasons, we also must take into account that they came in 16 games. Despite his numbers looking strong on the surface, the fact that Golden never surpassed a 24% receiving dominator rating or 1.82 yards per team attempt does raise some red flags.

Digging a little deeper into Golden’s advanced stats shows that he grew as a receiver during his lone season at Texas. Golden’s 0.069 points earned per route (PE/R) in 2024 was the best of his career, coming in just short of Tetairoa McMillan (0.073 PE/R) and just ahead of Iowa State duo Jayden Higgins (0.067 PE/R) and Jaylin Noel (0.065 PE/R), as well as slightly edging Marvin Harrison Jr.’s (0.066 PE/R) breakout 2022 season. Golden was also able to curtail an alarming 2023 drop percentage of 11.8% down to 4.5% with the Longhorns while also putting up a reliable 93.1% on-target catch percentage.

Golden’s reliability is also mirrored in his 58.8% positive percentage, which once again aligns with standout seasons from players like Higgins, Harrison, and Malik Nabers. Not only a reliable possession receiver, Golden also added an explosive element to his profile with a 34.1% BOOM percentage and 17.0 yards per reception (Y/R) last season. Despite his high Y/R numbers, Golden doesn’t do a ton of work after the catch. His evasion numbers have been solid and consistent across his college career – ranging from 17.2% to 18.4% – while being heavily skewed towards forced missed tackles over broken tackles.

Golden was already receiving first-round buzz heading into the combine, but his 4.29 forty time cemented him as a Day 1 pick.

Even after running the fastest forty time of any WR at the combine, Golden’s athletic comps still raise plenty of questions about his NFL ceiling.

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Kevin Szafraniec

Full-time Cat Dad, Sneakerhead, Record Collector, LOTR Fanboy, and Jeopardy Enthusiast. Fantasy football writer and beatmaker in my free time. Follow me on X and Bluesky @thecatdadff

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