How Much Should We Be Discounting Emeka Egbuka Based On His Landing Spot in Tampa Bay?
Image Credit: Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Emeka Egbuka.

After arriving at Ohio State as an elite recruit, Emeka Egbuka was never able to put together a true breakout season despite staying in school for four years. However, because he played alongside multiple five-star prospects, his lack of top-end statistics could be partially explained away.

Seeing Egbuka land with an NFL team where he would have a primary role on Day 1 could have helped alleviate some of the concerns brought up by his complicated production profile. Unfortunately, he was selected by a Tampa Bay Buccaneers franchise that already has two star WRs in tow, among other ascending talents on their offense who look to be in line for larger workloads.

In a congested Tampa Bay offense, should we be willing to bet on Egbuka’s pedigree and draft capital making him a producer in Year 1? If not, how long will we have to wait before he gets his shot at becoming a primary target in the Buccaneers’ passing game?

Emeka Egbuka’s NFL Comps

Egbuka contributed to Ohio State’s tradition of attracting elite WR prospects by heading to Columbus as the top WR and ninth-ranked overall high school player in the 2021 recruiting cycle. He sat behind Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba as a true freshman but saw the field extensively alongside Marvin Harrison Jr. in 2022.

After nearly breaking out as a sophomore, Egbuka’s production dwindled in his junior season while he struggled with a high-ankle sprain. Despite being projected as a borderline first-round selection in the 2024 draft, Egbuka returned to school for his senior season, but once again came up just short of a true breakout while competing for targets with freshman superstar Jeremiah Smith and 2023 five-star recruit Carnell Tate.

Despite never reaching the breakout threshold of a 30% receiving Dominator Rating, Egbuka’s consistently strong production was still impressive considering the level of talent he was competing against for touches.

It’s clear Egbuka’s ankle injury limited his effectiveness in 2023. However, his numbers from 2022 and 2024 remain fairly consistent with one another. Egbuka’s marks of 0.076 points earned per route (PE/R) and 3.7 yards per route run (YPRR) in 2022, in addition to 0.071 PE/R and 2.7 YPRR in 2024, are all impressive considering his substantial route volume. Meanwhile, Egbuka’s 63.0% positive percentage was one of the best marks in the nation last season (alongside Ohio State teammates Tate and Smith), while also putting up a very solid 31.5% BOOM percentage. Egbuka has also been reliable across his career, posting matching 4.4% drop percentages in each of the 2022 and 2024 seasons.

If there is one area where Egbuka did not thrive, it was after the catch. While by no means terrible, his yards after the catch per reception (YAC/R) numbers declined from a promising 7.3 YAC/R as a sophomore down to less impressive numbers of 5.9 YAC/R and 6.0 YAC/R in 2023 and 2024, respectively. Similarly, Egbuka’s lackluster evasion percentages (EVAS%) of 10.8% (5.4% in both broken tackle percentage and forced missed tackle percentage) in 2022 and 12.3% (6.2% in both BT% and FMT%) in 2024 will not have anyone believing he is an after-the-catch dynamo. Oddly enough, he achieved a more respectable 22.0% EVAS% (12.2% BT%, 9.8% FMT%) during the 2023 season while playing through his high-ankle sprain.

Egbuka did not work out at the combine, so he was unable to alleviate concerns that NFL decision-makers might have had about his overall athleticism. However, it was reported that he put up forty times ranging from 4.45 seconds to 4.49 seconds at Ohio State’s pro day. If we assume the higher number, Egbuka’s freak score of 55 hits the 61st percentile among WRs and aligns with names like Reggie Wayne, Jeremy Maclin, Tyler Lockett, Tyreek Hill, Khalil Shakir, and Ricky Pearsall.[1] In addition to his forty time, Egbuka recorded a 38-inch vertical and a 4.12-second 20-yard shuttle at his pro day.

Tampa Bay was reportedly highly impressed with Egbuka’s character along with his play on the field, with both aspects contributing to the Buccaneers selecting him with the 19th pick in the first round. After factoring in draft capital, Egbuka’s score of 65 in the WR Prospect Lab came in as the ninth-best score in the 2025 class. In the Box Score Scout, Egbuka’s comps are a mixture of stars and monumental busts, with little else in between.

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Footnotes

Footnotes
1 Using a 4.45-second forty time for Egbuka results in a 71st percentile freak score of 59, with comps to players like Deebo Samuel, Marvin Jones Jr., Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks, and Tee Higgins.

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Kevin Szafraniec

Full-time Cat Dad, Sneakerhead, Record Collector, LOTR Fanboy, and Jeopardy Enthusiast. Fantasy football writer and beatmaker in my free time. Follow me on X and Bluesky @thecatdadff

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