Shawn Siegele explains why the wrong players are being targeted in the second and third rounds of 2021 rookie drafts and helps you find prospects with the characteristics that lead to exploding dynasty value.
I tend to think of the RotoViz Dynasty Workshop as an attempt to get just that little bit better at everything. Perhaps this is similar to Dave Brailsford’s Aggregation of Marginal Gains, which turned the Sky Cycling team into a superpower. Or perhaps it’s easier to think of it as a series of nesting dolls. Each layer of strategy fits inside the next and can be peeled back to reveal another layer that can help us improve the last tiny bit that could be all the difference.
Last week, we looked at the 5 Reasons You Want to Trade Down in Your Rookie Drafts. One of the reasons is to hold enough lottery tickets to eventually own Chase Claypool. But it’s not enough to spend your late-round picks randomly, so then we looked at exactly how you use our tools and metrics to find the next Claypool … or D.K. Metcalf or Darren Waller.
To add a little texture to this, I followed that up by re-drafting every rookie draft since 2014. We know how to find the players who follow the rules – and following the rules is still the best way to dominate your league – but this exercise also uncovers the tricks for finding the exceptions. It’s not just Claypool. We also gain insight into why Tyreek Hill, Terry McLaurin, and D.J. Chark were such great risk-adjusted selections. Unfortunately, 2021 rookie ADP indicates that drafters are probably focusing on the wrong players.
In this edition of the Dynasty Workshop, we’ll look at how to simultaneously avoid early-round busts and yet stop throwing away late-round picks – all while having more fun drafting in the process.
Want to dive into all of the below-the-radar prospects who are suddenly relevant rookie drafts? Check out Zachary Krueger’s Post-Draft Sleeper Cheat Sheet.
