The Jaguars were one of the first movers in free agency, signing wide receiver Gabe Davis to a three-year deal worth a maximum of $50 million (with $24 million fully guaranteed). Davis has been one of the premier long-touchdown specialists of the last few years, even as many of his key metrics are routinely underwhelming. Yet after Calvin Ridley signed with the Tennessee Titans, Davis has an opportunity to step into a bigger role. Can he provide Jacksonville the spark they need to make a deep playoff run?
Davis’ 2023 Season
Davis is the epitome of a boom-bust player. He finished 2023 with four WR1 performances, interspersed with numerous WR3-or-worse performances.
He’s finished with positive efficiency in each of his first three seasons, largely on the back of his touchdown scoring ability. Davis has never had more than 48 catches in a season. Yet he’s scored at least six receiving TDs every year. Only four players with at least 40 targets in 2023 averaged fewer targets per touchdown. That said, among players who scored at least one touchdown for every 12 targets, only Nelson Agholor ran more routes per touchdown than Davis.
Davis was No. 6 in evasion rate and No. 2 in forced missed tackle rate. But because he only drew a target for every 6.4 routes he ran, his yards per route run mark was the lowest among the Bills’ top receivers. Of the 27 players to run at least 500 routes, Davis ranked 21st in YPRR, and 24th in TPRR. Despite having the fifth-highest aDOT of that group, Davis ranked 19th in intended air yards per route run. In other words, Davis was great with the ball in his hands, but he was not that great at getting open.
This is reflected in ESPN’s receiver tracking metrics, where Davis recorded an Open Score of just 39. (Scores are scaled 0-100.) And despite his ability to make tacklers miss, he scored only a 48 in ESPN’s YAC Score. What this indicates in concert with his evasion rate and forced missed tackle rate, is that he evaded many tackles that other receivers would also be expected to evade. That’s not to say his after-catch heroics aren’t impressive — only that they don’t distinguish Davis as much as it might first appear.
