To Catch a Falling Knife: Should We Be Taking Shots on 2025’s 13 Biggest Preseason Fallers?
Image Credit: Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Brian Robinson.

Kevin Szafraniec breaks down the circumstances that have led to the preseason’s biggest drops in ADP and explains whether fantasy managers should still be looking to add each player to redraft rosters at their current price.

Earlier in the week, we looked at the preseason’s biggest ADP risers and broke down the cases for buying and selling each. Now it is time to head to the other end of the spectrum and do the same for the players who have seen the biggest decreases in price since the beginning of August.

Whether it be due to injury, added competition, or the possibility of moving on to a new team, a falling ADP can present fantasy managers a buying window when uncertainty or misfortune leads to an overcorrection in price. However, there is almost always valid reasoning behind ADP shifts, opening up the potential to take a big loss if we decide to bet on the wrong situations.

For this exercise, I’ll be pulling ADP information from the FFPC’s Main Event and Big Gorilla going back to the beginning of August.

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Kevin Szafraniec

Lead Writer and Full-time Cat Dad. Sneakerhead, Record Collector, Beatmaker, Lord of the Rings Superfan, and Jeopardy Enthusiast in my free time. Follow me on X and Bluesky @thecatdadff

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Kevin Szafraniec analyzes the past six years of best ball ADP data in the Win Rate Explorer and compares it against running back PPR scoring to find out how accurately drafters are predicting team depth charts prior to the season. While I was researching best ball stacks recently, a few interesting trends emerged that caused me to question how accurately preseason positional ADPs align with…...

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Rookie Wide Receivers Are a True Wild Card for NFL Depth Charts: Challenging the Wisdom of the Crowds, Part 4

Kevin Szafraniec applies the historical team trends he discovered by comparing wide receiver ADP and their PPR finishes to the 2026 best ball environment. In Part 1 of this series, I asked the question: How effective is the fantasy community at predicting wide receiver depth charts? To answer this question, we compared ADP data from the past six years against how WRs ranked among their…...

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These 9 WR2s Are in Danger of Tumbling Down Their Depth Charts: Challenging the Wisdom of the Crowds, Part 3

Kevin Szafraniec applies historical ADP trends to the 2026 best ball landscape in an effort to predict which team WR2s could end up tumbling down depth charts this season. In Part 1 of this series, I asked the question: How effective is the fantasy community at predicting wide receiver depth charts? To answer this question, we compared ADP data from the past six years against how WRs ranked…...

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How Good Are We at Drafting Running Backs? Challenging the Wisdom of the Crowds, Part 5

Kevin Szafraniec analyzes the past six years of best ball ADP data in the Win Rate Explorer and compares it against running back PPR scoring to find out how accurately drafters are predicting team depth charts prior to the season. While I was researching best ball stacks recently, a few interesting trends emerged that caused me to question how accurately preseason positional ADPs align with…...

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Rookie Wide Receivers Are a True Wild Card for NFL Depth Charts: Challenging the Wisdom of the Crowds, Part 4

Kevin Szafraniec applies the historical team trends he discovered by comparing wide receiver ADP and their PPR finishes to the 2026 best ball environment. In Part 1 of this series, I asked the question: How effective is the fantasy community at predicting wide receiver depth charts? To answer this question, we compared ADP data from the past six years against how WRs ranked among their…...

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These 9 WR2s Are in Danger of Tumbling Down Their Depth Charts: Challenging the Wisdom of the Crowds, Part 3

Kevin Szafraniec applies historical ADP trends to the 2026 best ball landscape in an effort to predict which team WR2s could end up tumbling down depth charts this season. In Part 1 of this series, I asked the question: How effective is the fantasy community at predicting wide receiver depth charts? To answer this question, we compared ADP data from the past six years against how WRs ranked…...

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