Last season, Miles Sanders’ ADP fell throughout July, and he temporarily dropped behind Jordan Howard before launching again in the final run-up to the season. In 2018, Nick Chubb’s ADP fell consistently throughout draft season as it became clear that Carlos Hyde was going to begin the season as the starter. Chubb wasn’t even the second Cleveland running back selected, as drafters assumed the Browns would continue to…...

We’ve all had that experience where we’re on a guy but he falls in a range with a couple of our other targets. You’re always thinking he’ll come back around to you, but somehow he never does. Someone always grabs him just a slot or two before your pick. And then, of course, that’s the player who ends up with a win rate around 17%…....

The Clyde Edwards-Helaire rocket ship has gone screaming into the first round. He’s primed to have a league-winning impact as a rookie, even at those lofty prices, but should you also be drafting his doppelgangers at the end of your fantasy football drafts? Once Damien Williams opted out of the 2020 season, the last impediment disappeared to a monster rookie campaign from Edwards-Helaire. Drafters responded…....

Shawn Siegele explains why he departed from his patented WR-heavy tactics in a high-stakes expert draft. What did it take for him to break his cardinal rules? Running back tactics are always a flash point in fantasy football discussions. This week, Colm Kelly and I had Scott Barrett on RotoViz Overtime to explain why he’s going Bell Cow or Bust in 2020. That provides a…...

The Draft Dashboard is a powerful tool to prepare for drafts and dominate the real thing. Can we put together an entire team of players from explosive offenses without having to reach? Last year’s look at drafting a team entirely from explosive offenses was a reader favorite, so we’re bringing it back for 2020. It’s a fun thought experiment in draft strategy, and it lets…...

Friday was a sad day for Derrius Guice owners, and a sadder day for Guice, but Antonio Gibson acolytes continue to reap the benefits of being all-in on a back rocketing toward the Clyde Edwards-Helaire/Jonathan Taylor tier. Our devy guru, Travis May, was on Gibson even before the combine, ranking him as must-buy for early startups. Jack Miller recently covered Gibson as one of two…...

Marvin Jones has had an interesting career. He’s 30-years-old with only a single 1,000-yard season, and yet his WR37 ADP looks like a value. Jones is not a target volume guy. He’s never had a 110-target season, and over the last two years he hasn’t managed 100 combined receptions. And yet, he’s been a top-30 WR in PPR/G in each of the last three years,…...

After a slow stretch from 2013 to 2017 where Davante Adams was the only third-year wide receiver to crest 200 points for the first time, the last two seasons brought Tyler Boyd, Chris Godwin, and Cooper Kupp into the ranks of the elite. And Godwin and Kupp didn’t just break out. They scored 270 points a piece, capitalizing on the promise of earlier seasons and…...

Will Fuller was one of my most-started players when he scored 53 points in Week 5 last year. He was one of my most-started players when he “dropped” three TDs passes in Week 6. He was one of my most-started players when he went out with yet another soft tissue injury at the beginning of Week 7. When you own Fuller, it’s always a roller…...

Shawn Siegele looks at the scenarios necessary for elite wide receivers to finish as the overall fantasy WR1 in 2020. In working on other research, I found myself wondering how many WRs had a scenario where they could realistically finish as the WR1 . . . even if it was a pretty outside shot. For example, I agree with Neil Dutton’s take that Adam Thielen…...

Shawn Siegele deploys the RotoViz Screener to provide all the key stats on fourth-year breakouts at the wide receiver position. The 2017 WR class has given us stars like JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay, and Cooper Kupp. That’s not a bad quartet, especially when you consider that the first five receivers selected in that draft are yet to record a 200-point season. How much hope should…...

Austin Ekeler may be my favorite player in the NFL, or at least he might be my second favorite after his higher priced and higher scoring doppelganger. In 2020, Ekeler and Christian McCaffrey generated win rates of 21% and 31% respectively. They did so with the type of freakish athleticism at smaller sizes that offers make-you-miss ability with transcendent receiving skills. Given the tenuous nature…...

David Montgomery slogged to a frustrating RB24 finish on 242 carries as a rookie. He averaged only 3.7 yards per attempt and ranked No. 152 in fantasy points over expectation. Only Frank Gore and Le’Veon Bell generated more negative FPOE in the run game. Montgomery still offers intriguing potential entering his second year. He ranked No. 12 in opportunities a season ago, and his current…...

The wide receiver class of 2020 is very good and very deep. Devy owners have been looking forward to their arrival, while dynasty owners are loading up in rookie drafts. In the Black Crown startup, I prioritized rookie picks, and then I selected six WRs during the rookie draft. Still, this class has an almost impossible task if they want to match the 2014 group…....

Allen Robinson has been a personal favorite since we pushed dynasty owners to grab him during the loaded 2014 receiver draft. He broke out with a massive 304-point performance in Year 2 and looked like a permanent member of the WR firmament. Unfortunately, quarterback play and injuries derailed his career. He didn’t post another top-24 season until 2019. Robinson’s 254-point campaign returned him to WR1…...

DeVante Parker broke out with 246 points in 2019. The No. 14 overall pick from 2015 crested the 200-point threshold for the first time in his fifth season. Parker followed an unusual path. Over the last 20 years, this was the first time a former first-round pick had broken out in Year 5. It was also the first time in several years that a fifth-round…...