Shawn Siegele looks at a big game from Justin Jackson, laments the instant injury to Darrynton Evans, and mentions five deep options who could be in line for more work. Enjoy the ride as he breaks down the workload for AFC backfields ahead of Week 6.
Our goal with the Zero RB Watch List is to help you locate RB breakouts and waiver adds before they happen, but this column isn’t just for Zero RB owners. We’re just as focused on key changes to the usage profiles for high-end backs. Understanding workloads is key to making tough redraft and dynasty trades.
The RotoViz Screener and NFL Stat Explorer provide a smorgasbord of data as we dive into the advanced stats on a team-by-team basis. Much of the focus is on how RBs score their points. We use expected points (EP) and fantasy points over expectation (FPOE) along with carries, targets, snaps, and red zone touches to better understand each player’s workload.
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens backfield has been infuriating for fantasy owners who knew Mark Ingram had his work cut out to hold off J.K. Dobbins but weren’t expecting such a big push from Gus Edwards. I examine how this has affected Dobbins’ dynasty value in my Monday experiment in Redrafting the 2019 and 2020 Classes Against Each Other. Best-case scenario would be the Carlos Hyde/Nick Chubb scenario from 2018, although a Super Bowl contender may be reluctant to part with any of their RB depth.
Buffalo Bills
Devin Singletary averaged more than four targets per game over the first month, but those high-value touches dried up in this one. The Bills have struggled badly to run the ball in 2020, with their backs constantly met with multiple tacklers in the backfield. This poor stretch of offensive line play has coincided with Frank Gore-level efficiency from Singletary.
T.J. Yeldon stole some of the short-yardage and receiving work in this one, replicating the role anticipated for Zack Moss. The 22-yard receiving touchdown came on a broken play where Josh Allen extended the play and Yeldon found a nook in the back of the end zone.
Moss owners were hung out to dry Tuesday night, but the rookie’s time is coming.
