Welcome to the third installment of my efficiency versus opportunity series. If you’re new to the whole thing please go check out my work on quarterbacks and running backs. Today, we focus on wide receivers. Receivers can come in different sizes and skill sets, which introduces many different ways for them to amass fantasy points. You can have the big-play, Torrey Smith-type who only needs the one catch to…...

One of the biggest storylines heading into 2015 is the New Orleans Saints backfield. After Darren Sproles left for Philadelphia last offseason, fellow mainstay Pierre Thomas is also gone (as well as the less-heralded Travaris Cadet). Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson are still around, and the key addition is C.J. Spiller. Out of that bunch, I believe it’s Spiller that will return a top 10…...

There are many exploitable patterns in the market this season that fantasy owners are not embracing. No, Julio Jones is not one of them despite being one of our favorite players this season. The following players are consistently being drafted at big discounts that could provide fantasy owners with league winning value. My 2015 All Undervalued Team QB: Alex Smith – QB25, 179.61 Quarterback has…...

Foreword: I’m nervous about this one. All Marshawn Lynch does is prove his detractors wrong. I admit that I’m scared, but the time has come for someone to stick their neck out and say it: It’s time to sell Beast Mode. The first article I ever read on RotoViz told me not to draft Marshawn Lynch. It was during the offseason following a 2012 campaign…...

If you don’t know it already, there is no website on earth more dedicated to the deep dynasty sleeper than RotoViz. And it isn’t without direction. Even if it takes some time, a few of these players have worked out in a big way for dynasty owners. One of those players worth updating you on right now is Gus Johnson. What’s New Gus? After initially being signed…...

During the most recent Numbers Game Podcast,[1]Which, if you don’t already subscribe to, you’re doing yourself a disservice Kevin Cole and Matthew Freedman had a very interesting discussion on the contingent value of players. What it boiled down to was that there are plenty of players every year who don’t appear to have great value in their current settings. However, they happen to have a…...

Niles Paul Jay Gruden says Niles Paul is a more complete tight end than Jordan Reed, and that’s why he is now the starting TE. — Mike Jones (@MikeJonesWaPo) August 10, 2015 In his limited action last season, Niles Paul was the second most efficient target for the Redskins in 2014. On the flip side of things, Jordan Reed was the least efficient target. Reed…...

Sports Injury Predictor is a fascinating site. By analyzing past injury data, they’ve developed an algorithm to predict the likelihood of future injury. Last year, 75 percent of the players they deemed at “high risk” of injury were in fact injured, while just 30 percent of players rated “low risk” were injured. Injury prediction isn’t an exact science of course, but I thought it would…...

“Father Time is undefeated” -Unknown This is not fun. There is nothing enjoyable about watching a Hall of Fame talent wind down their career and become a shell of their former self. Having to objectively, honestly analyze beloved players as they show age and usage related declination is extremely difficult to do emotionlessly. Extensive research has been done that shows curves players can be expected…...

Recently I wrote that Arian Foster is not a buy-low target in dynasty leagues. Today I’ll explain why he could is a target in redraft leagues. Sad Trombone And now, for a live look in at Foster’s ADP: That, my friends, is why Viagra happened. Oh wait, wrong article, sorry. Of course it makes sense that Foster’s ADP plummeted. Now that it appears to be leveling out, did it drop…...

Ahmad Bradshaw is 29 years old, he broke his leg last season, he’s suspended for Week 1, and he’s not currently on an NFL roster. Despite all that, if he’s on your dynasty league’s waiver wire you need to pick him up. Let me explain why he’s a must-add. First, let’s dismiss those negatives. It’s true that Bradshaw is 29, which puts him at risk of…...

Over the weekend I did some work to translate Average Draft Position into suggested auction prices. The reason to do this is simple. Auction price data is shitty. There are no legitimately good sources. Yahoo is probably the best, but I wanted something a little more custom for our site, so I decided that we should create our own pricing model. I used My Fantasy League…...

Earlier in the summer I wrote about exploiting recency bias, and how people were overpaying for Rob Gronkowski and Andrew Luck because of something called Fear of Missing Out (FOMO). There is a frequently applied false correlation in fantasy football that the immediate future will resemble the immediate past, and it causes expectations to let price inflate beyond reason. The opposite of this is also…...

If you look at the top 25 running backs[1]Excluding Adrian Peterson and the rookies by ADP according to the Best Ball ADP App in the Game Splits App, every single RB scored more fantasy points in wins than in losses in 2014. That’s how important winning is to RB success. With that in mind, I decided to combine the information from the Game Splits App and the betting lines…...

The inestimable Fantasy Douche recently noted that Brian Quick was on a 1200/12 pace to start the season and is available in the 11th round. Given that Quick is expected to both fully recover and play in pre-season games, this is likely your last chance to acquire Quick in dynasty formats with an injury discount. The pro-Quick argument argument has been laid out in detail already: Quick should have the best…...

Ronnie Hillman From 9 News Denver: “A development from the past three or four days is what’s happened at his top backup spot. Ronnie Hillman has taken some 1B reps ahead of Montee Ball. (Tailback is the one position where the backup works in with the first-team offense. Thus, the 1B distinction).” Ronnie Hillman was a third-round pick in the 2012 draft, but has never had…...

Camp news is coming fast and furious so I’ll highlight some important movements as they relate to value creation or destruction in IDP. Will Hill Matt Elam was a post-hype all-star, but unfortunately for his fantasy owners, any chance of an ROI is postponed as he undergoes surgery for a biceps tear. Elam was competing with Will Hill for the starting strong safety job, and now it…...

With the top two running backs on the shelf for the Falcons, there appears to be a competition going on between rookie Terron Ward, Antone Smith, and new addition Michael Ford. Let’s take a deeper look and see if we can get an idea of who might be worth watching as we head into the preseason.  The Hard Working Undrafted Free Agent Early reports out…...