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In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

Are High Stakes Best Ball Leagues Exploitable?

The FFPC was nice enough to provide us access to the FFPC API which allows you to do things like get draft results and see what free agents are available in specific leagues. I want to do some digging on the data because I think it can answer some interesting questions. The first question that occurred to me to ask is: Do drafters in best ball…...

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Meet Dynasty Dynamo Josh Robinson, Bowling Ball Overlord of the Planet “Opportunity”

We’ve been doing this for years. You know the drill by now: Frank Gore is old. He’s equally amazing and ancient. He’s a pleaser, but he’s also a geezer.[1]Oops. Made myself laugh. The age cliff is fast-approaching, and Gore’s fall will be sudden and steep. Imagine Gore as Wile E. Coyote, running off the cliff, ball tucked under one arm, legs still churning. He pauses briefly…...

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The Lowdown: Second Chance for Sammy Watkins and Lamar Miller to get More Carries?

Lamar Miller From ESPN.com: “I would tell you I’ve never been in a meeting where I’ve said to [offensive coordinator] Bill [Lazor] or [running backs coach] Jeff Nixon or the offensive line coaches have said ‘Lamar can’t carry the ball 20 times a game. He can’t do it,’” Philbin said. “I’ve never heard that. That’s never come out of my mouth.” “I would tell you,…...

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Percy Harvin vs Robert Woods

From Buffalo News: There’s a reason Harvin has already been with three teams… and has yet to establish himself as a strong receiving presence. Despite his veteran status, Harvin needed plenty of detailed instruction on how to run routes during the offseason. He made progress, but needs to make more. Huh. So Percy Harvin doesn’t know how to run routes. He’s also apparently the league’s most…...

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Curious Clues From the TE Sim Scores App

This article is part of a series comparing positional ADP to positional projections from the Similarity Scores Apps. I covered the QBs here. If you’ve already read that one, feel free to skip down to the player-specific takeaways. I think the Similarity Scores Apps are pretty amazing, and they tend to get overlooked around here, among all the other great tools and content.((Not completely overlooked,…...

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The Lowdown: Seattle’s Tight End Depth and the Lions Need More From Their TEs

Detroit Tight Ends From MichiganLive.com: “There wasn’t a more disappointing position group last season than the tight ends. Despite having two first-round picks and a proven red-zone threat, the trio of Eric Ebron, Brandon Pettigrew and Joseph Fauria combined for just 41 catches, 389 yards and two touchdowns. Injuries are partially to blame. The trio missed a combined 14 games, with a non-football ankle injury…...

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Getting Your Money’s Worth: The Best Quarterback Auction Values

Fantasy football drafts are all about value, and that’s especially true of auction drafts. By combining our composite projections, which you can find in the Cheat Sheet Calculator and Best Ball ADP apps, and My Fantasy League’s average auction values I was able to boil value down into a single number. Without further ado, here are the best auction values at quarterback: The table is pretty straightforward…....

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RotoViz Roundtable: 100 Percent Exposure! Our Favorite Fantasy Football Targets

We sent out the bat signal to the RotoViz writing crew to make a case for the players they want 100% exposure to in 2015. This is what they sent in. Bishop Sankey I took Sankey in the ninth round of a mid-stakes league the other night and as I was making the pick it occurred to me that you basically can’t screw up that…...

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Quarterbacks Who Consistently Outperform Their ADP

In 2014, ten of the top-12 quarterbacks outperformed their ADPs. As was the case with my previous articles, which covered wide receivers and running backs who consistently outperformed their ADPs, the purpose of this article is not to project where any of these players finish in 2015. We’re looking at opportunities to draft players that are consistently undervalued and, using the QB Similarity Score App, assess…...

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Counterpoint: Jimmy Graham Isn’t Dead Yet

After Jimmy Graham was traded to the Seahawks back in March, most people are expecting some kind of decline from the perennial stud tight end this season. He comes in as the TE3 in our collaborative projections, and Mike Braude thinks he’s a player to avoid if you want to win your PPR leagues this year. However, I think there is ample reason to believe that Graham…...

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Zero RB

RotoViz Radio: Patrick Daugherty and Rich Hribar – Episode 72

Episode 72 (July 28, 2015): The seventy-second show of RotoViz Radio: A Fantasy Football Podcast (@RotoVizRadio), hosted by Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle), with Patrick Daugherty (@RotoPat) filling in for Jon Moore (@TheCFX). If you’re a listener of the show who isn’t subscribing yet to RotoViz you can get a special 20% subscription discount through the podcast. Cohost: Patrick Daugherty (@RotoPat) Pat is an NFL Writer for RotoWorld & NBC Sports. In his return to the…...

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IDP Fantasy Football: Tackle Friendly Schedules

While it’s not new to IDP circles that certain stadium crews are more likely to award tackles than assists and some award assists at an even higher rate, I thought it would be helpful to visualize these stadium differences. By averaging the number of solo tackles per play at the stadiums these are the best and worst stadiums in terms of awarding solo tackles. Solo Tackles Per Play –…...

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The Rundown: Harry Douglas, Sam Bradford, and Le’Veon Bell

Harry Douglas ESPN projects the Titans’ starting wide receivers to be Kendall Wright and…Harry Douglas. That’s an interesting, but not unreasonable, projection. First, Justin Hunter has been a disappointment when he’s played, and his recent off field problems might see him suspended or even released, depending on the outcome. There’s no guarantee he even sticks with the team, let alone starts. And Dorial Green-Beckham offers scintillating potential, but is…...

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Name Brand v. Store Brand: Similar stats but different ADPs

You’re familiar with the “Name Brand” but did you know the “Store Brand” can often be just as effective? No need to always overpay for the Name Brand when the less expensive store brand will get the job done just the same. The following is a list of players with very similar 2014 stats but different ADPs. All ADPs taken from Rotoviz Best Ball ADP…....

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Using Monte Carlo Simulation for the FFPC Pros vs. Joes Drafts

I love the analytic mindset and all the great writers at RotoViz, so when Mr. @FantasyDouche asked me to represent the site in the Pros v Joes (henceforth, PvJ) challenge I was both excited to take him up on the offer and do RotoViz proud! Some of you may know me from an article I did last year on the optimal lineup construction for MFL10…...

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TE Projections

Tight End Rankings: Overvalued / Undervalued

Using the Cheat Sheet Calculator and MFL10 ADP, I generated a set of players to target – and avoid. My criteria were simple. I searched for quarterbacks and tight ends drafted in the top 12 at their position, and running backs and wide receivers in the top 24. From there, I identified the three players at each position with the biggest discrepancy – either good or…...

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Running Backs Who Consistently Outperform Their ADPs

In 2014, nine of the top-12 running backs outperformed their ADPs. Seventeen of the top-24 (representing all RB1 and RB2’s) outperformed their ADPs. As was the case with my previous article, which covered wide receivers who consistently outperformed their ADPs, the purpose of this article is not to project where any of these players finish in 2015. We’re looking at opportunities to draft players that…...

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3 Players to Avoid… if You Want to Win Your PPR League

Let me preface my thoughts by saying I believe all fantasy players have value. It’s just a question of the cost that you pay to draft that value. To illustrate this with a far-fetched example, David Johnson is my top pick as a Zero RB league winner . . . but he would not be a value pick in the 6th round. A 6th round pick factors in…...

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The RotoViz Report: 27 July 2015 – Pat Kerrane

July 27, 2015: The RotoViz Report: A RotoViz Radio News Show, hosted by Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) with guest Patrick Kerrane (@PatKerrane)…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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The Lowdown: Sam Bradford’s Injury and Questioning Carson Palmer

Sam Bradford From NJ.com: “If I’m not ready for 11 on 11 by training camp, then something has gone horribly wrong,” Bradford said. “That’s the plan right now. We’re going to keep plugging away and be ready when camp starts.” In his five year career, Sam Bradford has managed to play all 16 games just twice. I don’t think Bradford would even be on most…...

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Are High Stakes Best Ball Leagues Exploitable?

The FFPC was nice enough to provide us access to the FFPC API which allows you to do things like get draft results and see what free agents are available in specific leagues. I want to do some digging on the data because I think it can answer some interesting questions. The first question that occurred to me to ask is: Do drafters in best ball…...

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Meet Dynasty Dynamo Josh Robinson, Bowling Ball Overlord of the Planet “Opportunity”

We’ve been doing this for years. You know the drill by now: Frank Gore is old. He’s equally amazing and ancient. He’s a pleaser, but he’s also a geezer.[1]Oops. Made myself laugh. The age cliff is fast-approaching, and Gore’s fall will be sudden and steep. Imagine Gore as Wile E. Coyote, running off the cliff, ball tucked under one arm, legs still churning. He pauses briefly…...

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The Lowdown: Second Chance for Sammy Watkins and Lamar Miller to get More Carries?

Lamar Miller From ESPN.com: “I would tell you I’ve never been in a meeting where I’ve said to [offensive coordinator] Bill [Lazor] or [running backs coach] Jeff Nixon or the offensive line coaches have said ‘Lamar can’t carry the ball 20 times a game. He can’t do it,’” Philbin said. “I’ve never heard that. That’s never come out of my mouth.” “I would tell you,…...

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Percy Harvin vs Robert Woods

From Buffalo News: There’s a reason Harvin has already been with three teams… and has yet to establish himself as a strong receiving presence. Despite his veteran status, Harvin needed plenty of detailed instruction on how to run routes during the offseason. He made progress, but needs to make more. Huh. So Percy Harvin doesn’t know how to run routes. He’s also apparently the league’s most…...

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Curious Clues From the TE Sim Scores App

This article is part of a series comparing positional ADP to positional projections from the Similarity Scores Apps. I covered the QBs here. If you’ve already read that one, feel free to skip down to the player-specific takeaways. I think the Similarity Scores Apps are pretty amazing, and they tend to get overlooked around here, among all the other great tools and content.((Not completely overlooked,…...

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The Lowdown: Seattle’s Tight End Depth and the Lions Need More From Their TEs

Detroit Tight Ends From MichiganLive.com: “There wasn’t a more disappointing position group last season than the tight ends. Despite having two first-round picks and a proven red-zone threat, the trio of Eric Ebron, Brandon Pettigrew and Joseph Fauria combined for just 41 catches, 389 yards and two touchdowns. Injuries are partially to blame. The trio missed a combined 14 games, with a non-football ankle injury…...

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Getting Your Money’s Worth: The Best Quarterback Auction Values

Fantasy football drafts are all about value, and that’s especially true of auction drafts. By combining our composite projections, which you can find in the Cheat Sheet Calculator and Best Ball ADP apps, and My Fantasy League’s average auction values I was able to boil value down into a single number. Without further ado, here are the best auction values at quarterback: The table is pretty straightforward…....

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RotoViz Roundtable: 100 Percent Exposure! Our Favorite Fantasy Football Targets

We sent out the bat signal to the RotoViz writing crew to make a case for the players they want 100% exposure to in 2015. This is what they sent in. Bishop Sankey I took Sankey in the ninth round of a mid-stakes league the other night and as I was making the pick it occurred to me that you basically can’t screw up that…...

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Quarterbacks Who Consistently Outperform Their ADP

In 2014, ten of the top-12 quarterbacks outperformed their ADPs. As was the case with my previous articles, which covered wide receivers and running backs who consistently outperformed their ADPs, the purpose of this article is not to project where any of these players finish in 2015. We’re looking at opportunities to draft players that are consistently undervalued and, using the QB Similarity Score App, assess…...

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Counterpoint: Jimmy Graham Isn’t Dead Yet

After Jimmy Graham was traded to the Seahawks back in March, most people are expecting some kind of decline from the perennial stud tight end this season. He comes in as the TE3 in our collaborative projections, and Mike Braude thinks he’s a player to avoid if you want to win your PPR leagues this year. However, I think there is ample reason to believe that Graham…...

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Zero RB

RotoViz Radio: Patrick Daugherty and Rich Hribar – Episode 72

Episode 72 (July 28, 2015): The seventy-second show of RotoViz Radio: A Fantasy Football Podcast (@RotoVizRadio), hosted by Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle), with Patrick Daugherty (@RotoPat) filling in for Jon Moore (@TheCFX). If you’re a listener of the show who isn’t subscribing yet to RotoViz you can get a special 20% subscription discount through the podcast. Cohost: Patrick Daugherty (@RotoPat) Pat is an NFL Writer for RotoWorld & NBC Sports. In his return to the…...

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IDP Fantasy Football: Tackle Friendly Schedules

While it’s not new to IDP circles that certain stadium crews are more likely to award tackles than assists and some award assists at an even higher rate, I thought it would be helpful to visualize these stadium differences. By averaging the number of solo tackles per play at the stadiums these are the best and worst stadiums in terms of awarding solo tackles. Solo Tackles Per Play –…...

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The Rundown: Harry Douglas, Sam Bradford, and Le’Veon Bell

Harry Douglas ESPN projects the Titans’ starting wide receivers to be Kendall Wright and…Harry Douglas. That’s an interesting, but not unreasonable, projection. First, Justin Hunter has been a disappointment when he’s played, and his recent off field problems might see him suspended or even released, depending on the outcome. There’s no guarantee he even sticks with the team, let alone starts. And Dorial Green-Beckham offers scintillating potential, but is…...

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Name Brand v. Store Brand: Similar stats but different ADPs

You’re familiar with the “Name Brand” but did you know the “Store Brand” can often be just as effective? No need to always overpay for the Name Brand when the less expensive store brand will get the job done just the same. The following is a list of players with very similar 2014 stats but different ADPs. All ADPs taken from Rotoviz Best Ball ADP…....

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Using Monte Carlo Simulation for the FFPC Pros vs. Joes Drafts

I love the analytic mindset and all the great writers at RotoViz, so when Mr. @FantasyDouche asked me to represent the site in the Pros v Joes (henceforth, PvJ) challenge I was both excited to take him up on the offer and do RotoViz proud! Some of you may know me from an article I did last year on the optimal lineup construction for MFL10…...

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TE Projections

Tight End Rankings: Overvalued / Undervalued

Using the Cheat Sheet Calculator and MFL10 ADP, I generated a set of players to target – and avoid. My criteria were simple. I searched for quarterbacks and tight ends drafted in the top 12 at their position, and running backs and wide receivers in the top 24. From there, I identified the three players at each position with the biggest discrepancy – either good or…...

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Running Backs Who Consistently Outperform Their ADPs

In 2014, nine of the top-12 running backs outperformed their ADPs. Seventeen of the top-24 (representing all RB1 and RB2’s) outperformed their ADPs. As was the case with my previous article, which covered wide receivers who consistently outperformed their ADPs, the purpose of this article is not to project where any of these players finish in 2015. We’re looking at opportunities to draft players that…...

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3 Players to Avoid… if You Want to Win Your PPR League

Let me preface my thoughts by saying I believe all fantasy players have value. It’s just a question of the cost that you pay to draft that value. To illustrate this with a far-fetched example, David Johnson is my top pick as a Zero RB league winner . . . but he would not be a value pick in the 6th round. A 6th round pick factors in…...

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The RotoViz Report: 27 July 2015 – Pat Kerrane

July 27, 2015: The RotoViz Report: A RotoViz Radio News Show, hosted by Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) with guest Patrick Kerrane (@PatKerrane)…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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The Lowdown: Sam Bradford’s Injury and Questioning Carson Palmer

Sam Bradford From NJ.com: “If I’m not ready for 11 on 11 by training camp, then something has gone horribly wrong,” Bradford said. “That’s the plan right now. We’re going to keep plugging away and be ready when camp starts.” In his five year career, Sam Bradford has managed to play all 16 games just twice. I don’t think Bradford would even be on most…...

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Are High Stakes Best Ball Leagues Exploitable?

The FFPC was nice enough to provide us access to the FFPC API which allows you to do things like get draft results and see what free agents are available in specific leagues. I want to do some digging on the data because I think it can answer some interesting questions. The first question that occurred to me to ask is: Do drafters in best ball…...

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Meet Dynasty Dynamo Josh Robinson, Bowling Ball Overlord of the Planet “Opportunity”

We’ve been doing this for years. You know the drill by now: Frank Gore is old. He’s equally amazing and ancient. He’s a pleaser, but he’s also a geezer.[1]Oops. Made myself laugh. The age cliff is fast-approaching, and Gore’s fall will be sudden and steep. Imagine Gore as Wile E. Coyote, running off the cliff, ball tucked under one arm, legs still churning. He pauses briefly…...

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The Lowdown: Second Chance for Sammy Watkins and Lamar Miller to get More Carries?

Lamar Miller From ESPN.com: “I would tell you I’ve never been in a meeting where I’ve said to [offensive coordinator] Bill [Lazor] or [running backs coach] Jeff Nixon or the offensive line coaches have said ‘Lamar can’t carry the ball 20 times a game. He can’t do it,’” Philbin said. “I’ve never heard that. That’s never come out of my mouth.” “I would tell you,…...

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Percy Harvin vs Robert Woods

From Buffalo News: There’s a reason Harvin has already been with three teams… and has yet to establish himself as a strong receiving presence. Despite his veteran status, Harvin needed plenty of detailed instruction on how to run routes during the offseason. He made progress, but needs to make more. Huh. So Percy Harvin doesn’t know how to run routes. He’s also apparently the league’s most…...

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Curious Clues From the TE Sim Scores App

This article is part of a series comparing positional ADP to positional projections from the Similarity Scores Apps. I covered the QBs here. If you’ve already read that one, feel free to skip down to the player-specific takeaways. I think the Similarity Scores Apps are pretty amazing, and they tend to get overlooked around here, among all the other great tools and content.((Not completely overlooked,…...

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The Lowdown: Seattle’s Tight End Depth and the Lions Need More From Their TEs

Detroit Tight Ends From MichiganLive.com: “There wasn’t a more disappointing position group last season than the tight ends. Despite having two first-round picks and a proven red-zone threat, the trio of Eric Ebron, Brandon Pettigrew and Joseph Fauria combined for just 41 catches, 389 yards and two touchdowns. Injuries are partially to blame. The trio missed a combined 14 games, with a non-football ankle injury…...

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Getting Your Money’s Worth: The Best Quarterback Auction Values

Fantasy football drafts are all about value, and that’s especially true of auction drafts. By combining our composite projections, which you can find in the Cheat Sheet Calculator and Best Ball ADP apps, and My Fantasy League’s average auction values I was able to boil value down into a single number. Without further ado, here are the best auction values at quarterback: The table is pretty straightforward…....

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RotoViz Roundtable: 100 Percent Exposure! Our Favorite Fantasy Football Targets

We sent out the bat signal to the RotoViz writing crew to make a case for the players they want 100% exposure to in 2015. This is what they sent in. Bishop Sankey I took Sankey in the ninth round of a mid-stakes league the other night and as I was making the pick it occurred to me that you basically can’t screw up that…...

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Quarterbacks Who Consistently Outperform Their ADP

In 2014, ten of the top-12 quarterbacks outperformed their ADPs. As was the case with my previous articles, which covered wide receivers and running backs who consistently outperformed their ADPs, the purpose of this article is not to project where any of these players finish in 2015. We’re looking at opportunities to draft players that are consistently undervalued and, using the QB Similarity Score App, assess…...

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Counterpoint: Jimmy Graham Isn’t Dead Yet

After Jimmy Graham was traded to the Seahawks back in March, most people are expecting some kind of decline from the perennial stud tight end this season. He comes in as the TE3 in our collaborative projections, and Mike Braude thinks he’s a player to avoid if you want to win your PPR leagues this year. However, I think there is ample reason to believe that Graham…...

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Zero RB

RotoViz Radio: Patrick Daugherty and Rich Hribar – Episode 72

Episode 72 (July 28, 2015): The seventy-second show of RotoViz Radio: A Fantasy Football Podcast (@RotoVizRadio), hosted by Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle), with Patrick Daugherty (@RotoPat) filling in for Jon Moore (@TheCFX). If you’re a listener of the show who isn’t subscribing yet to RotoViz you can get a special 20% subscription discount through the podcast. Cohost: Patrick Daugherty (@RotoPat) Pat is an NFL Writer for RotoWorld & NBC Sports. In his return to the…...

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IDP Fantasy Football: Tackle Friendly Schedules

While it’s not new to IDP circles that certain stadium crews are more likely to award tackles than assists and some award assists at an even higher rate, I thought it would be helpful to visualize these stadium differences. By averaging the number of solo tackles per play at the stadiums these are the best and worst stadiums in terms of awarding solo tackles. Solo Tackles Per Play –…...

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The Rundown: Harry Douglas, Sam Bradford, and Le’Veon Bell

Harry Douglas ESPN projects the Titans’ starting wide receivers to be Kendall Wright and…Harry Douglas. That’s an interesting, but not unreasonable, projection. First, Justin Hunter has been a disappointment when he’s played, and his recent off field problems might see him suspended or even released, depending on the outcome. There’s no guarantee he even sticks with the team, let alone starts. And Dorial Green-Beckham offers scintillating potential, but is…...

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Name Brand v. Store Brand: Similar stats but different ADPs

You’re familiar with the “Name Brand” but did you know the “Store Brand” can often be just as effective? No need to always overpay for the Name Brand when the less expensive store brand will get the job done just the same. The following is a list of players with very similar 2014 stats but different ADPs. All ADPs taken from Rotoviz Best Ball ADP…....

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Using Monte Carlo Simulation for the FFPC Pros vs. Joes Drafts

I love the analytic mindset and all the great writers at RotoViz, so when Mr. @FantasyDouche asked me to represent the site in the Pros v Joes (henceforth, PvJ) challenge I was both excited to take him up on the offer and do RotoViz proud! Some of you may know me from an article I did last year on the optimal lineup construction for MFL10…...

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TE Projections

Tight End Rankings: Overvalued / Undervalued

Using the Cheat Sheet Calculator and MFL10 ADP, I generated a set of players to target – and avoid. My criteria were simple. I searched for quarterbacks and tight ends drafted in the top 12 at their position, and running backs and wide receivers in the top 24. From there, I identified the three players at each position with the biggest discrepancy – either good or…...

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Running Backs Who Consistently Outperform Their ADPs

In 2014, nine of the top-12 running backs outperformed their ADPs. Seventeen of the top-24 (representing all RB1 and RB2’s) outperformed their ADPs. As was the case with my previous article, which covered wide receivers who consistently outperformed their ADPs, the purpose of this article is not to project where any of these players finish in 2015. We’re looking at opportunities to draft players that…...

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3 Players to Avoid… if You Want to Win Your PPR League

Let me preface my thoughts by saying I believe all fantasy players have value. It’s just a question of the cost that you pay to draft that value. To illustrate this with a far-fetched example, David Johnson is my top pick as a Zero RB league winner . . . but he would not be a value pick in the 6th round. A 6th round pick factors in…...

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The RotoViz Report: 27 July 2015 – Pat Kerrane

July 27, 2015: The RotoViz Report: A RotoViz Radio News Show, hosted by Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) with guest Patrick Kerrane (@PatKerrane)…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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The Lowdown: Sam Bradford’s Injury and Questioning Carson Palmer

Sam Bradford From NJ.com: “If I’m not ready for 11 on 11 by training camp, then something has gone horribly wrong,” Bradford said. “That’s the plan right now. We’re going to keep plugging away and be ready when camp starts.” In his five year career, Sam Bradford has managed to play all 16 games just twice. I don’t think Bradford would even be on most…...

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