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In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

The Eagles Should Trade for Johnny Manziel, Not Marcus Mariota

This post is really more about the implications of Fantasy Douche’s YOLO quarterback strategy than specifically Marcus Mariota and Johnny Manziel. But I think the choice between acquiring Mariota or Manziel is a good illustration of taking the traditional franchise QB path or going YOLO. For those who haven’t read any previous YOLO QB articles, here’s an explainer from PapaViz:… Membership Required You must be a member to access this...

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Demarco Murray and the Hidden Value of Special Teams Stats

Earlier this month I detailed the hidden value of college special teams stats for wide receiver prospects and how they might help us identify undervalued commodities. Perhaps unsurprisingly, special teams stats matter for running backs too. In a recent round of testing I solved for 24 different variables, including a mix of rush yards, rushing touchdowns, receptions and receiving touchdowns and their per-game siblings over the…...

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Opportunity Scores Part 2: The Top Destinations for Rookie Running Backs

Last week I used the relationship between team passing-game ADPs to calculate how undervalued each team’s receivers are compared to their quarterback. Since we’re in the thick of draft season, I also realized that we could also use that calculation, which I called an “opportunity score”, to identify which teams are the most favorable destinations for rookies receivers. The logic is fairly intuitive: teams with QBs…...

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The Rundown: Brandon Marshall, Greg Jennings, ADP Arbitrage, and More

    Brandon Marshall, LB  Marshall is recovering from Lisfranc surgery. This is a big deal for IDP players. A four to six month recovery period potentially keeps him out of training camp and jeopardizes the beginning of the season. Depending on severity and responsiveness to treatment, recovery outcomes are highly variable. Some, like Santonio Holmes, took a full year to return to action. Cedric Benson never played…...

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Playing the Odds: Opportunity Knocks for DeVante Parker

You can probably file this post in the “you’re overthinking it, dude,” category. Nonetheless, this is our thing at RotoViz, a site that’s published 300+ articles before the NFL draft. I got an idea after looking through Brian Burke’s new Bayesian draft model over at his Advanced Football Analytics site. The model gives you pick-by-pick probabilities for where each prospect will be drafted. Now, the model is new and…...

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Opportunity Scores: Identifying the Top Destinations for Rookie Receivers

If you’ve seen some of my recent posts or are following me on Twitter, you’ll know that I’ve become somewhat obsessed with analyzing the relationship between quarterback and receiver ADPs. You can look at the previous articles to dig into the methodology, which includes adjustments for expected QB rushing production and running back usage in the passing game…. Membership Required You must be a member to...

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Wide Receiver Size and Survivorship Bias

From 2007 to 2013, NFL wideouts posted 37 different 1,000 yard receiving seasons. Almost half, 16, came from “small” guys who weighed 200 pounds or less. Last season, five of the top 10 fantas y wide receivers weighed 200 pounds or less. Does that mean WR size doesn’t matter? Not at all. It does matter. A lot. Yesterday I read this article by Philly Mag’s Sheil Kapadia. In it,…...

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The Eagles Should Trade for Johnny Manziel, Not Marcus Mariota

This post is really more about the implications of Fantasy Douche’s YOLO quarterback strategy than specifically Marcus Mariota and Johnny Manziel. But I think the choice between acquiring Mariota or Manziel is a good illustration of taking the traditional franchise QB path or going YOLO. For those who haven’t read any previous YOLO QB articles, here’s an explainer from PapaViz:… Membership Required You must be a member to access this...

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Demarco Murray and the Hidden Value of Special Teams Stats

Earlier this month I detailed the hidden value of college special teams stats for wide receiver prospects and how they might help us identify undervalued commodities. Perhaps unsurprisingly, special teams stats matter for running backs too. In a recent round of testing I solved for 24 different variables, including a mix of rush yards, rushing touchdowns, receptions and receiving touchdowns and their per-game siblings over the…...

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Opportunity Scores Part 2: The Top Destinations for Rookie Running Backs

Last week I used the relationship between team passing-game ADPs to calculate how undervalued each team’s receivers are compared to their quarterback. Since we’re in the thick of draft season, I also realized that we could also use that calculation, which I called an “opportunity score”, to identify which teams are the most favorable destinations for rookies receivers. The logic is fairly intuitive: teams with QBs…...

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The Rundown: Brandon Marshall, Greg Jennings, ADP Arbitrage, and More

    Brandon Marshall, LB  Marshall is recovering from Lisfranc surgery. This is a big deal for IDP players. A four to six month recovery period potentially keeps him out of training camp and jeopardizes the beginning of the season. Depending on severity and responsiveness to treatment, recovery outcomes are highly variable. Some, like Santonio Holmes, took a full year to return to action. Cedric Benson never played…...

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Playing the Odds: Opportunity Knocks for DeVante Parker

You can probably file this post in the “you’re overthinking it, dude,” category. Nonetheless, this is our thing at RotoViz, a site that’s published 300+ articles before the NFL draft. I got an idea after looking through Brian Burke’s new Bayesian draft model over at his Advanced Football Analytics site. The model gives you pick-by-pick probabilities for where each prospect will be drafted. Now, the model is new and…...

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Opportunity Scores: Identifying the Top Destinations for Rookie Receivers

If you’ve seen some of my recent posts or are following me on Twitter, you’ll know that I’ve become somewhat obsessed with analyzing the relationship between quarterback and receiver ADPs. You can look at the previous articles to dig into the methodology, which includes adjustments for expected QB rushing production and running back usage in the passing game…. Membership Required You must be a member to...

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Wide Receiver Size and Survivorship Bias

From 2007 to 2013, NFL wideouts posted 37 different 1,000 yard receiving seasons. Almost half, 16, came from “small” guys who weighed 200 pounds or less. Last season, five of the top 10 fantas y wide receivers weighed 200 pounds or less. Does that mean WR size doesn’t matter? Not at all. It does matter. A lot. Yesterday I read this article by Philly Mag’s Sheil Kapadia. In it,…...

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The Eagles Should Trade for Johnny Manziel, Not Marcus Mariota

This post is really more about the implications of Fantasy Douche’s YOLO quarterback strategy than specifically Marcus Mariota and Johnny Manziel. But I think the choice between acquiring Mariota or Manziel is a good illustration of taking the traditional franchise QB path or going YOLO. For those who haven’t read any previous YOLO QB articles, here’s an explainer from PapaViz:… Membership Required You must be a member to access this...

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Demarco Murray and the Hidden Value of Special Teams Stats

Earlier this month I detailed the hidden value of college special teams stats for wide receiver prospects and how they might help us identify undervalued commodities. Perhaps unsurprisingly, special teams stats matter for running backs too. In a recent round of testing I solved for 24 different variables, including a mix of rush yards, rushing touchdowns, receptions and receiving touchdowns and their per-game siblings over the…...

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Opportunity Scores Part 2: The Top Destinations for Rookie Running Backs

Last week I used the relationship between team passing-game ADPs to calculate how undervalued each team’s receivers are compared to their quarterback. Since we’re in the thick of draft season, I also realized that we could also use that calculation, which I called an “opportunity score”, to identify which teams are the most favorable destinations for rookies receivers. The logic is fairly intuitive: teams with QBs…...

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The Rundown: Brandon Marshall, Greg Jennings, ADP Arbitrage, and More

    Brandon Marshall, LB  Marshall is recovering from Lisfranc surgery. This is a big deal for IDP players. A four to six month recovery period potentially keeps him out of training camp and jeopardizes the beginning of the season. Depending on severity and responsiveness to treatment, recovery outcomes are highly variable. Some, like Santonio Holmes, took a full year to return to action. Cedric Benson never played…...

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Playing the Odds: Opportunity Knocks for DeVante Parker

You can probably file this post in the “you’re overthinking it, dude,” category. Nonetheless, this is our thing at RotoViz, a site that’s published 300+ articles before the NFL draft. I got an idea after looking through Brian Burke’s new Bayesian draft model over at his Advanced Football Analytics site. The model gives you pick-by-pick probabilities for where each prospect will be drafted. Now, the model is new and…...

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Opportunity Scores: Identifying the Top Destinations for Rookie Receivers

If you’ve seen some of my recent posts or are following me on Twitter, you’ll know that I’ve become somewhat obsessed with analyzing the relationship between quarterback and receiver ADPs. You can look at the previous articles to dig into the methodology, which includes adjustments for expected QB rushing production and running back usage in the passing game…. Membership Required You must be a member to...

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Wide Receiver Size and Survivorship Bias

From 2007 to 2013, NFL wideouts posted 37 different 1,000 yard receiving seasons. Almost half, 16, came from “small” guys who weighed 200 pounds or less. Last season, five of the top 10 fantas y wide receivers weighed 200 pounds or less. Does that mean WR size doesn’t matter? Not at all. It does matter. A lot. Yesterday I read this article by Philly Mag’s Sheil Kapadia. In it,…...

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