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Last week I used the relationship between team passing-game ADPs to calculate how undervalued each team’s receivers are compared to their quarterback. Since we’re in the thick of draft season, I also realized that we could also use that calculation, which I called an “opportunity score”, to identify which teams are the most favorable destinations for rookies receivers. The logic is fairly intuitive: teams with QBs…...

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    Brandon Marshall, LB  Marshall is recovering from Lisfranc surgery. This is a big deal for IDP players. A four to six month recovery period potentially keeps him out of training camp and jeopardizes the beginning of the season. Depending on severity and responsiveness to treatment, recovery outcomes are highly variable. Some, like Santonio Holmes, took a full year to return to action. Cedric Benson never played…...

You can probably file this post in the “you’re overthinking it, dude,” category. Nonetheless, this is our thing at RotoViz, a site that’s published 300+ articles before the NFL draft. I got an idea after looking through Brian Burke’s new Bayesian draft model over at his Advanced Football Analytics site. The model gives you pick-by-pick probabilities for where each prospect will be drafted. Now, the model is new and…...

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If you’ve seen some of my recent posts or are following me on Twitter, you’ll know that I’ve become somewhat obsessed with analyzing the relationship between quarterback and receiver ADPs. You can look at the previous articles to dig into the methodology, which includes adjustments for expected QB rushing production and running back usage in the passing game…. Membership Required You must be a member to...

From 2007 to 2013, NFL wideouts posted 37 different 1,000 yard receiving seasons. Almost half, 16, came from “small” guys who weighed 200 pounds or less. Last season, five of the top 10 fantas y wide receivers weighed 200 pounds or less. Does that mean WR size doesn’t matter? Not at all. It does matter. A lot. Yesterday I read this article by Philly Mag’s Sheil Kapadia. In it,…...

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I think if I were going to attempt to boil down our outlook on QBs this year to a couple of principal components I would focus on the following: Marcus Mariota will create fantasy points with his legs Jameis Winston has some question marks as a prospect because he was mistake prone in his final season Mariota is otherwise an incredibly young and accomplished prospect…...

  We recently published our rookie tight end rankings, so I thought I’d briefly offer some thoughts about this year’s class. Last season I spent a lot of time analyzing TEs; this year, not so much. This year’s class lacks the star power of last year’s, and given the time it generally takes for TEs to master the pro game, there hasn’t been much urgency for…...

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