In the wake of the first round of the NFL Draft, I updated my wide receiver projection models and was surprised to see Nelson Agholor in a dead heat with Jaelen Strong and Kevin White to be the second-highest projected receiver from the 2015 class. For the record, Amari Cooper is number one and has been for a while. But after Cooper, I think Agholor’s landing…...

The first round of the NFL Draft is officially in the books and fantasy football degenerates worldwide now have some fresh meat to chew on for the next four months. Over the course of the last few weeks, I explored the relationship between passing-game ADPs in the search for potential arbitrage opportunities. I eventually quantified the opportunity for rookie wide receivers in different landing spots…...

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Tre Mason His value will rightfully plummet with the Rams’ selection of Todd Gurley, but I think there’s a case for trying to acquire him cheaply. Still recovering from an ACL injury, Gurley is unlikely to play in the first month of the season. Once he’s cleared to play, he’ll still have to demonstrate his ability to execute the playbook and handle pass protection (remember, pass…...

When Breshad Perriman was drafted by the Baltimore Ravens, I was filled with excitement. After all, this seemed like the fit I had been waiting for after months hours of waiting for an NFL team to select him. Then I saw this tweet from our fearless leader: GFL figuring Perriman out. pic.twitter.com/cjeuI6MQac — Fantasy Douche (@FantasyDouche) May 1, 2015 Suddenly, I wasn’t sure what to…...

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This post is really more about the implications of Fantasy Douche’s YOLO quarterback strategy than specifically Marcus Mariota and Johnny Manziel. But I think the choice between acquiring Mariota or Manziel is a good illustration of taking the traditional franchise QB path or going YOLO. For those who haven’t read any previous YOLO QB articles, here’s an explainer from PapaViz:… Membership Required You must be a member to access this...

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[Update: The Cowboys signed Gus Johnson on July 28th.]… Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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Last week I used the relationship between team passing-game ADPs to calculate how undervalued each team’s receivers are compared to their quarterback. Since we’re in the thick of draft season, I also realized that we could also use that calculation, which I called an “opportunity score”, to identify which teams are the most favorable destinations for rookies receivers. The logic is fairly intuitive: teams with QBs…...

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    Brandon Marshall, LB  Marshall is recovering from Lisfranc surgery. This is a big deal for IDP players. A four to six month recovery period potentially keeps him out of training camp and jeopardizes the beginning of the season. Depending on severity and responsiveness to treatment, recovery outcomes are highly variable. Some, like Santonio Holmes, took a full year to return to action. Cedric Benson never played…...

You can probably file this post in the “you’re overthinking it, dude,” category. Nonetheless, this is our thing at RotoViz, a site that’s published 300+ articles before the NFL draft. I got an idea after looking through Brian Burke’s new Bayesian draft model over at his Advanced Football Analytics site. The model gives you pick-by-pick probabilities for where each prospect will be drafted. Now, the model is new and…...