Shawn Siegele

Author of the original Zero RB article and 2013 NFFC Primetime Grand Champion. 11-time main event league winner. 2015, 2017, 2018 titles in MFL10 of Death.

Author Archive

In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

Wide Receiver Race for No. 1 – Top Candidates and the Key Dark Horses to Target in 2020

Shawn Siegele looks at the scenarios necessary for elite wide receivers to finish as the overall fantasy WR1 in 2020. In working on other research, I found myself wondering how many WRs had a scenario where they could realistically finish as the WR1 . . . even if it was a pretty outside shot. For example, I agree with Neil Dutton’s take that Adam Thielen is a risky selection. Our bounceback criteria reveal some concerns, and the Range of Outcomes tool is skeptical. But could Thielen be a value, or even finish as the overall WR1? I think he could…....

The Guy Behind The Guy: RotoViz’s Favorite Backup Pass Catchers in 2020

Welcome to the second part in our series looking at players who could be absolute superstars in 2020 … if only the player(s) ahead of them on the depth chart would just get out of the way. In the previous edition of The Guy Behind the Guy, we looked at backup running backs that our writers are particularly high on, and would rally behind if they could only secure a larger workload. You can find that piece here, and I heartily recommend that you read it. Here, we look further down the field at pass catchers who, while not as…...

The 2020 Auction Draft Strategy Guide: Part 1

Auction drafts are easy to “win” but even easier to “lose.” In this series, Dave Caban will overview the preparation, thought processes, and in-auction strategies needed to ensure that you’re ready for the intensity and challenges auctions will throw at you and are poised to leave your draft with a contender. If you’ve never participated in an auction draft, or have spent little time considering auction strategy or optimal approaches, it’s easy to feel overwhelmed. You might be wondering, how much is too much for Christian McCaffrey? Who should I nominate and when? How do I build a value worksheet…...

The Guy Behind The Guy: RotoViz’s Favorite Backup RBs In 2020

Don’t call it a comeback! Well actually, as this is a sequel to a series that ran prior to the 2019 NFL season, I suppose you should call it a comeback. Anyway, call it what you want but this piece will focus not on the superstars of the NFL, but rather their understudies. Players that our writers believe could be fantasy relevant producers in the coming season if only something were to happen to the man in their way. Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you the 2020 Guys Behind the Guy. I asked our crew at RotoViz to nominate their favorite…...

4th Year Wide Receiver Breakouts Over the Years: The 5 Trends You Need to Know

Shawn Siegele deploys the RotoViz Screener to provide all the key stats on fourth-year breakouts at the wide receiver position. The 2017 WR class has given us stars like JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay, and Cooper Kupp. That’s not a bad quartet, especially when you consider that the first five receivers selected in that draft are yet to record a 200-point season. How much hope should we retain for these players, and does it make sense to target fourth-year breakouts? Those are the questions we’ll answer today in Part 2 of the annual breakout series: Fantasy leagues are won by rostering…...

High-Stakes Drafters are Bullish on Top Rookie RBs — Should You Be?

Under normal circumstances, drafting rookie running backs in the FFPC Main Event is a complete minefield. The 2017 class likely ruined expectations for years after, as the likes of Kareem Hunt, Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette finished in the top nine, a tidy profit on their third-round ADPs – and that’s not counting Alvin Kamara, who was drafted much later and finished as the overall RB3. The appeal is obvious: A rookie starter (or possible co-starter) typically comes much more cheaply than an entrenched veteran, so the payoff is larger if he hits. But the downside is huge, too: There’s…...

How to Split Half a Million Dollars 4 Ways: Drafting a Championship-Winning Quad Squad in the FFPC

A few days ago, my Fantasy Football Report cohost Hasan Rahim and I joined Pat Kerrane and Peter Overzet on Ship Chasing to run back our quad-managed FFPC draft. Last year, we went through most of the season taking near zeroes at our second running back slot, and we scrambled to fill our tight end slot from the waiver wire almost every week (in a TE-premium format). Our first-round pick, JuJu Smith-Schuster, missed four games, and finished the week outside of the top-24 wide receivers in nine of the 12 games he did appear in. Our fourth-round pick, Brandin Cooks,…...

Ekeler is the Discount McCaffrey, But Who Is the Discount Ekeler? Try These 3 Exciting Options

Austin Ekeler may be my favorite player in the NFL, or at least he might be my second favorite after his higher priced and higher scoring doppelganger. In 2020, Ekeler and Christian McCaffrey generated win rates of 21% and 31% respectively. They did so with the type of freakish athleticism at smaller sizes that offers make-you-miss ability with transcendent receiving skills. Given the tenuous nature of elite running back value, it’s disconcerting that both backs face serious threats to their continued dominance. McCaffrey gets a new quarterback and a new coaching staff. Lack of continuity is exactly what we don’t…...

Want David Montgomery’s Volume But Worried About His Talent? 3 RBs With Opportunity and Upside at a Fraction of the Price

David Montgomery slogged to a frustrating RB24 finish on 242 carries as a rookie. He averaged only 3.7 yards per attempt and ranked No. 152 in fantasy points over expectation. Only Frank Gore and Le’Veon Bell generated more negative FPOE in the run game. Montgomery still offers intriguing potential entering his second year. He ranked No. 12 in opportunities a season ago, and his current ADP of RB23 offers a discount on that workload. Unlike the players drafted immediately after him, Montgomery’s touches also appear safe. The Bears have little beyond Tarik Cohen. While a revitalized Cohen could operate in…...

The 2020 WR Class Doesn’t Quite Match the Epic Group from 2014, But There Are Still 5 Rookies You Should Be Stockpiling in Redraft

The wide receiver class of 2020 is very good and very deep. Devy owners have been looking forward to their arrival, while dynasty owners are loading up in rookie drafts. In the Black Crown startup, I prioritized rookie picks, and then I selected six WRs during the rookie draft. Still, this class has an almost impossible task if they want to match the 2014 group. In today’s exercise, we’ll compare the two classes to find out just how close they were before entering the NFL, we’ll look at the epic rookie seasons from the 2014 class to help us determine…...

Wide Receiver Race for No. 1 – Top Candidates and the Key Dark Horses to Target in 2020

Shawn Siegele looks at the scenarios necessary for elite wide receivers to finish as the overall fantasy WR1 in 2020. In working on other research, I found myself wondering how many WRs had a scenario where they could realistically finish as the WR1 . . . even if it was a pretty outside shot. For example, I agree with Neil Dutton’s take that Adam Thielen is a risky selection. Our bounceback criteria reveal some concerns, and the Range of Outcomes tool is skeptical. But could Thielen be a value, or even finish as the overall WR1? I think he could…....

The Guy Behind The Guy: RotoViz’s Favorite Backup Pass Catchers in 2020

Welcome to the second part in our series looking at players who could be absolute superstars in 2020 … if only the player(s) ahead of them on the depth chart would just get out of the way. In the previous edition of The Guy Behind the Guy, we looked at backup running backs that our writers are particularly high on, and would rally behind if they could only secure a larger workload. You can find that piece here, and I heartily recommend that you read it. Here, we look further down the field at pass catchers who, while not as…...

The 2020 Auction Draft Strategy Guide: Part 1

Auction drafts are easy to “win” but even easier to “lose.” In this series, Dave Caban will overview the preparation, thought processes, and in-auction strategies needed to ensure that you’re ready for the intensity and challenges auctions will throw at you and are poised to leave your draft with a contender. If you’ve never participated in an auction draft, or have spent little time considering auction strategy or optimal approaches, it’s easy to feel overwhelmed. You might be wondering, how much is too much for Christian McCaffrey? Who should I nominate and when? How do I build a value worksheet…...

The Guy Behind The Guy: RotoViz’s Favorite Backup RBs In 2020

Don’t call it a comeback! Well actually, as this is a sequel to a series that ran prior to the 2019 NFL season, I suppose you should call it a comeback. Anyway, call it what you want but this piece will focus not on the superstars of the NFL, but rather their understudies. Players that our writers believe could be fantasy relevant producers in the coming season if only something were to happen to the man in their way. Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you the 2020 Guys Behind the Guy. I asked our crew at RotoViz to nominate their favorite…...

4th Year Wide Receiver Breakouts Over the Years: The 5 Trends You Need to Know

Shawn Siegele deploys the RotoViz Screener to provide all the key stats on fourth-year breakouts at the wide receiver position. The 2017 WR class has given us stars like JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay, and Cooper Kupp. That’s not a bad quartet, especially when you consider that the first five receivers selected in that draft are yet to record a 200-point season. How much hope should we retain for these players, and does it make sense to target fourth-year breakouts? Those are the questions we’ll answer today in Part 2 of the annual breakout series: Fantasy leagues are won by rostering…...

High-Stakes Drafters are Bullish on Top Rookie RBs — Should You Be?

Under normal circumstances, drafting rookie running backs in the FFPC Main Event is a complete minefield. The 2017 class likely ruined expectations for years after, as the likes of Kareem Hunt, Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette finished in the top nine, a tidy profit on their third-round ADPs – and that’s not counting Alvin Kamara, who was drafted much later and finished as the overall RB3. The appeal is obvious: A rookie starter (or possible co-starter) typically comes much more cheaply than an entrenched veteran, so the payoff is larger if he hits. But the downside is huge, too: There’s…...

How to Split Half a Million Dollars 4 Ways: Drafting a Championship-Winning Quad Squad in the FFPC

A few days ago, my Fantasy Football Report cohost Hasan Rahim and I joined Pat Kerrane and Peter Overzet on Ship Chasing to run back our quad-managed FFPC draft. Last year, we went through most of the season taking near zeroes at our second running back slot, and we scrambled to fill our tight end slot from the waiver wire almost every week (in a TE-premium format). Our first-round pick, JuJu Smith-Schuster, missed four games, and finished the week outside of the top-24 wide receivers in nine of the 12 games he did appear in. Our fourth-round pick, Brandin Cooks,…...

Ekeler is the Discount McCaffrey, But Who Is the Discount Ekeler? Try These 3 Exciting Options

Austin Ekeler may be my favorite player in the NFL, or at least he might be my second favorite after his higher priced and higher scoring doppelganger. In 2020, Ekeler and Christian McCaffrey generated win rates of 21% and 31% respectively. They did so with the type of freakish athleticism at smaller sizes that offers make-you-miss ability with transcendent receiving skills. Given the tenuous nature of elite running back value, it’s disconcerting that both backs face serious threats to their continued dominance. McCaffrey gets a new quarterback and a new coaching staff. Lack of continuity is exactly what we don’t…...

Want David Montgomery’s Volume But Worried About His Talent? 3 RBs With Opportunity and Upside at a Fraction of the Price

David Montgomery slogged to a frustrating RB24 finish on 242 carries as a rookie. He averaged only 3.7 yards per attempt and ranked No. 152 in fantasy points over expectation. Only Frank Gore and Le’Veon Bell generated more negative FPOE in the run game. Montgomery still offers intriguing potential entering his second year. He ranked No. 12 in opportunities a season ago, and his current ADP of RB23 offers a discount on that workload. Unlike the players drafted immediately after him, Montgomery’s touches also appear safe. The Bears have little beyond Tarik Cohen. While a revitalized Cohen could operate in…...

The 2020 WR Class Doesn’t Quite Match the Epic Group from 2014, But There Are Still 5 Rookies You Should Be Stockpiling in Redraft

The wide receiver class of 2020 is very good and very deep. Devy owners have been looking forward to their arrival, while dynasty owners are loading up in rookie drafts. In the Black Crown startup, I prioritized rookie picks, and then I selected six WRs during the rookie draft. Still, this class has an almost impossible task if they want to match the 2014 group. In today’s exercise, we’ll compare the two classes to find out just how close they were before entering the NFL, we’ll look at the epic rookie seasons from the 2014 class to help us determine…...

The 2020 Auction Draft Strategy Guide: Part 1

Auction drafts are easy to “win” but even easier to “lose.” In this series, Dave Caban will overview the preparation, thought processes, and in-auction strategies needed to ensure that you’re ready for the intensity and challenges auctions will throw at you and are poised to leave your draft with a…...

The Guy Behind The Guy: RotoViz’s Favorite Backup RBs In 2020

Don’t call it a comeback! Well actually, as this is a sequel to a series that ran prior to the 2019 NFL season, I suppose you should call it a comeback. Anyway, call it what you want but this piece will focus not on the superstars of the NFL, but rather…...

4th Year Wide Receiver Breakouts Over the Years: The 5 Trends You Need to Know

Shawn Siegele deploys the RotoViz Screener to provide all the key stats on fourth-year breakouts at the wide receiver position. The 2017 WR class has given us stars like JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay, and Cooper Kupp. That’s not a bad quartet, especially when you consider that the first five receivers…...

High-Stakes Drafters are Bullish on Top Rookie RBs — Should You Be?

Under normal circumstances, drafting rookie running backs in the FFPC Main Event is a complete minefield. The 2017 class likely ruined expectations for years after, as the likes of Kareem Hunt, Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette finished in the top nine, a tidy profit on their third-round ADPs – and…...

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