RB Efficiency Report Through Two Weeks

chrisjohnson

The table below is a summary of Expected and Actual fantasy points for running backs through two weeks. Expected Points are arrived at by averaging the fantasy point value of a carry or target from every line of scrimmage on the field. For instance, a rushing attempt from the opponent’s 1 yard line is worth on average 2 fantasy points. If an RB scores on that play they actually get 6.1 fantasy points. The difference between Expected (2) and Actual (6.1) is what I call Fantasy Points Over Par (FPOP) which in this example would be 4.1. The table is ordered by Expected Points.

Some thoughts:

  • Thus far Matt Forte looks like a great value if you got him at the 1/2 turn in your draft. He’s heavily involved in the Bears offense and there aren’t many things better than usage for a fantasy running back.
  • LeSean McCoy is also dominating early as he’s seeing a good amount of usage and then has been extremely efficient with that usage thus far.
  • If you drafted Daryl Richardson you haven’t gotten results that are that exciting, but I still think that’s value to get a guy in the 5th round and then have him be top 15-ish in terms of RB usage through 2 weeks. The tough thing for Richardson is that the Rams have a fairly difficult schedule and I think they’re just more naturally suited to pass.
  • I own Gio Bernard in a couple of leagues and while I was excited to see his TDs last night I might see if there are any buyers this week. On the number of touches Bernard got (even last night) his fantasy results are going to be uneven. You might assume his usage will increase, but I kind of have a feeling that the Bengals will continue to use both guys. In any case I think depending on what you can get for Bernard it’s the right move to sell if you can lock in the equity you should have from last night. If your trade partner ends up benefitting if/when Bernard’s usage does go up, then you’ll just have to live with that.
  • Even with Lamar Miller’s disappointing start he’s still slightly above average in FPOP (and this is a year when a lot of backs have started below average in FPOP which is calculated on 13 years of data).
  • Marshawn Lynch and AP are both proving us wrong thus far. Recall that preseason our reasons to not like them were related to pass catching and relative age. Also we liked Alfred Morris and it looks like we’re on the business end of that one as well as the WAS offense isn’t generating the same scoring opportunities this year. These are just preliminary results and I’m not ready to waive the white flag yet. We’ll have to see how things shake out.
  • Doug Martin is 2nd in the league in rushing yards but has been really disappointing on the pass catching front. You really want to see that turn around as pass catching was a major reason to like Martin pre-season.
  • In general running backs have been really underwhelming thus far which could be a trend or could just be an anomaly. You still have to start RBs on your teams though, so I’m going to try to pick up some high usage RBs this week.

*A positive FPOP means a player has scored more fantasy points than the average expectation. Numbers in parentheses are negative.

PLAYER RECS CARS RYDS recYDS RTDS recTDS YPC Expected Pts Actual Pts FPOP/Opp Total FPOP
Matt Forte 15 38 140 112 1 0 3.68 35.26 31.20 (0.07) (4.06)
Jamaal Charles 11 32 132 71 1 1 4.13 32.50 32.30 (0.00) (0.20)
Arian Foster 7 37 136 39 1 0 3.68 31.11 23.50 (0.16) (7.61)
Adrian Peterson 5 44 193 25 2 1 4.39 30.48 39.80 0.19 9.32
Doug Martin 2 53 209 -1 1 0 3.94 29.98 26.80 (0.05) (3.18)
Marshawn Lynch 5 45 141 46 2 1 3.13 28.58 36.70 0.16 8.12
DeMarco Murray 13 32 111 88 0 0 3.47 27.33 19.90 (0.15) (7.43)
LeSean McCoy 6 42 237 119 1 0 5.64 26.79 41.60 0.30 14.81
Chris Johnson 1 50 166 1 0 0 3.32 26.30 16.70 (0.19) (9.60)
Darren McFadden 7 36 177 46 1 0 4.92 25.88 28.30 0.05 2.42
Reggie Bush 7 30 115 145 0 1 3.83 24.20 32.00 0.19 7.80
Ray Rice 11 25 72 44 1 0 2.88 23.54 17.60 (0.15) (5.94)
C.J. Spiller 9 33 144 40 0 0 4.36 23.49 18.40 (0.12) (5.09)
Trent Richardson 7 31 105 51 0 0 3.39 23.16 15.60 (0.18) (7.56)
Daryl Richardson 10 30 98 78 0 0 3.27 22.64 17.60 (0.12) (5.04)
BenJarvus Green-Ellis 2 36 100 9 1 0 2.78 22.53 16.90 (0.15) (5.63)
Frank Gore 3 30 60 35 1 0 2.00 21.73 15.50 (0.18) (6.23)
DeAngelo Williams 3 38 161 14 0 0 4.24 21.22 17.50 (0.09) (3.72)
Fred Jackson 8 25 97 64 1 0 3.88 19.93 22.10 0.06 2.17
Bilal Powell 6 25 77 57 1 0 3.08 19.43 19.40 (0.00) (0.03)
Rashard Mendenhall 3 31 126 32 1 0 4.06 18.73 21.80 0.09 3.07
Joique Bell 10 14 56 108 2 0 4.00 18.49 28.40 0.35 9.91
Steven Jackson 6 14 77 53 0 1 5.50 17.63 19.00 0.06 1.37
Bernard Pierce 1 28 79 -2 1 0 2.82 16.70 13.70 (0.10) (3.00)
Ryan Mathews 3 29 106 25 0 1 3.66 16.44 19.10 0.08 2.66
Darren Sproles 12 15 48 124 0 0 3.20 16.24 17.20 0.03 0.96
Ahmad Bradshaw 4 22 91 26 1 0 4.14 15.91 17.70 0.07 1.79
Maurice Jones-Drew 1 25 72 1 0 0 2.88 15.45 7.30 (0.29) (8.15)
Pierre Thomas 8 14 72 35 0 0 5.14 14.70 10.70 (0.17) (4.00)
Shane Vereen 7 14 101 58 0 0 7.21 14.61 15.90 0.05 1.29
Alfred Morris 3 25 152 22 1 0 6.08 14.59 23.40 0.31 8.81
Da’Rel Scott 7 10 25 81 0 1 2.50 14.12 16.60 0.11 2.48
Knowshon Moreno 6 22 121 51 2 0 5.50 14.11 29.20 0.54 15.09
James Starks 5 20 132 44 1 0 6.60 13.98 23.60 0.37 9.62
Lamar Miller 3 24 72 13 1 0 3.00 13.40 14.50 0.04 1.10
Isaac Redman 4 11 13 14 0 0 1.18 13.24 2.70 (0.66) (10.54)
Montee Ball 2 20 40 27 0 0 2.00 12.89 6.70 (0.28) (6.19)
Mark Ingram 0 17 31 0 0 0 1.82 12.56 3.10 (0.53) (9.46)
Ben Tate 5 18 148 15 0 0 8.22 12.50 16.30 0.16 3.80
Stevan Ridley 0 25 86 0 0 0 3.44 12.30 8.60 (0.15) (3.70)
Danny Woodhead 10 9 27 53 0 0 3.00 12.16 8.00 (0.20) (4.16)
Chris Ivory 0 22 67 0 0 0 3.05 12.06 6.70 (0.22) (5.36)
Jacquizz Rodgers 5 13 16 31 0 0 1.23 10.68 4.70 (0.33) (5.98)
Eddie Lacy 1 15 51 31 1 0 3.40 10.48 14.20 0.22 3.72
Daniel Thomas 2 16 44 15 1 0 2.75 10.48 11.90 0.08 1.42
David Wilson 0 14 34 0 0 0 2.43 10.25 3.40 (0.43) (6.85)
Giovani Bernard 2 12 60 35 1 1 5.00 8.94 21.50 0.78 12.56
Brandon Jacobs 0 7 4 0 1 0 0.57 8.51 6.40 (0.26) (2.11)
Bryce Brown 1 12 38 1 0 0 3.17 8.34 3.90 (0.34) (4.44)
Jackie Battle 0 14 34 0 1 0 2.43 7.90 9.40 0.11 1.50
Alfonso Smith 1 13 27 5 0 0 2.08 7.74 3.20 (0.30) (4.54)
Jordan Todman 3 7 2 20 0 0 0.29 7.74 2.20 (0.43) (5.54)
Mike Tolbert 3 10 35 12 0 0 3.50 7.36 4.70 (0.19) (2.66)
Vick Ballard 1 13 63 -5 0 0 4.85 7.36 5.80 (0.10) (1.56)
Rashad Jennings 1 6 34 2 0 0 5.67 6.66 3.60 (0.44) (3.06)
Vonta Leach 4 0 0 24 0 1 NA 6.34 8.40 0.34 2.06
Robert Turbin 2 9 48 13 0 0 5.33 6.25 6.10 (0.01) (0.15)
Ronnie Brown 3 8 42 27 0 0 5.25 6.18 6.90 0.07 0.72
LeGarrette Blount 0 11 26 0 0 0 2.36 5.80 2.60 (0.27) (3.20)
Dexter McCluster 5 0 0 57 0 0 NA 5.59 5.70 0.01 0.11
Jason Snelling 6 2 19 58 1 0 9.50 5.51 13.70 0.91 8.19
Bruce Miller 4 0 0 46 0 0 NA 5.20 4.60 (0.09) (0.60)
Andre Ellington 3 4 20 55 0 1 5.00 5.14 13.50 0.93 8.36
LaRod Stephens-Howling 2 6 19 11 0 0 3.17 4.61 3.00 (0.18) (1.61)
Felix Jones 0 10 37 0 0 0 3.70 4.61 3.70 (0.09) (0.91)
Michael Bush 0 8 15 0 0 0 1.88 4.38 1.50 (0.32) (2.88)
Justin Forsett 5 1 7 29 0 0 7.00 4.12 3.60 (0.07) (0.52)
Isaiah Pead 2 1 1 18 0 0 1.00 4.00 1.90 (0.42) (2.10)
Tommy Bohanon 2 4 12 18 0 0 3.00 3.97 3.00 (0.14) (0.97)
Chris Ogbonnaya 3 0 0 34 0 0 NA 3.83 3.40 (0.07) (0.43)
Ronnie Hillman 2 5 18 27 0 0 3.60 3.62 4.50 0.13 0.88
Marcel Reece 1 2 15 9 1 0 7.50 3.62 8.40 0.96 4.78
Kendall Hunter 0 7 17 0 0 0 2.43 3.36 1.70 (0.24) (1.66)
Donald Brown 0 7 30 0 0 0 4.29 3.34 3.00 (0.05) (0.34)
Knile Davis 1 4 12 5 0 0 3.00 2.45 1.70 (0.15) (0.75)
Anthony Sherman 4 0 0 44 0 0 NA 2.45 4.40 0.49 1.95
Roy Helu 2 1 5 13 0 0 5.00 2.40 1.80 (0.15) (0.60)
Cyrus Gray 1 2 8 6 0 0 4.00 2.33 1.40 (0.23) (0.93)
Shonn Greene 0 4 18 0 0 0 4.50 1.88 1.80 (0.02) (0.08)
Will Ta’ufo’ou 3 0 0 16 0 0 NA 1.87 1.60 (0.09) (0.27)
Spencer Ware 0 3 10 0 0 0 3.33 1.79 1.00 (0.26) (0.79)
Derrick Coleman 3 0 0 30 0 0 NA 1.72 3.00 0.43 1.28
Toby Gerhart 1 1 5 3 0 0 5.00 1.71 0.80 (0.30) (0.91)
Benny Cunningham 0 2 0 0 0 0 1.55 (0.52) (1.55)
Zach Line 1 0 0 8 0 0 NA 1.26 0.80 (0.23) (0.46)
Bradie Ewing 2 0 0 29 0 0 NA 1.24 2.90 0.83 1.66
John Kuhn 0 1 3 0 0 0 3.00 1.23 0.30 (0.47) (0.93)
Frank Summers 2 0 0 49 0 0 NA 1.21 4.90 1.84 3.69
Stanley Havili 2 0 0 12 0 0 NA 1.20 1.20 (0.00) (0.00)
Lance Dunbar 1 1 12 4 0 0 12.00 1.18 1.60 0.21 0.42
Leon Washington 0 1 1 0 0 0 1.00 1.16 0.10 (0.53) (1.06)
Brian Leonard 1 1 0 4 0 0 1.09 0.40 (0.34) (0.69)
Phillip Tanner 1 1 2 9 0 0 2.00 1.08 1.10 0.01 0.02
Tyler Clutts 0 1 -2 0 0 0 (2.00) 1.07 (0.20) (0.64) (1.27)
Anthony Dixon 0 1 4 0 0 0 4.00 0.91 0.40 (0.51) (0.51)
Theo Riddick 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA 0.87 (0.87) (0.87)
Jed Collins 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA 0.72 (0.72) (0.72)
Collin Mooney 1 0 0 5 0 0 NA 0.65 0.50 (0.15) (0.15)
Tashard Choice 1 0 0 1 0 0 NA 0.61 0.10 (0.51) (0.51)
Henry Hynoski 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA 0.61 (0.61) (0.61)
Darrel Young 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA 0.56 (0.56) (0.56)
James Develin 1 0 0 4 0 0 NA 0.49 0.40 (0.09) (0.09)
Stepfan Taylor 0 1 2 0 0 0 2.00 0.47 0.20 (0.27) (0.27)
Denard Robinson 0 1 0 0 0 0 0.47 (0.47) (0.47)
Le’Ron McClain 0 1 2 0 0 0 2.00 0.47 0.20 (0.27) (0.27)
Zac Stacy 0 1 4 0 0 0 4.00 0.46 0.40 (0.06) (0.06)
Jonathan Dwyer 0 1 2 0 0 0 2.00 0.45 0.20 (0.25) (0.25)