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In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

In Defense of Ageism: Why Drake London Is the Top Rookie Wide Receiver in 2022 (and Why It Could Also Be Jameson Williams)

Earlier this offseason I made an appearance on Ship Chasing to participate in a rookie mock draft. I had the second pick and took Drake London, explaining that I was breaking the tie between him and Treylon Burks in favor of London because he is more than a year younger than Burks. The responses in the comments included joking accusations of ageism. All I can…...

Dynasty Trade Diary – I Traded Justin Herbert and Rebuilt a Roster

In Dynasty Trade Diary, Curtis Patrick reveals his recent dynasty trades and shares the thought process behind offering or accepting the deals. Dynasty Trade Diary – I Traded Justin Herbert and Rebuilt a Roster Entry No. 1 League: The Bourgeoisie Dynasty League (Scott Barrett Charity Invitational) Format: Superflex, TE Premium scoring Lineups: Start 10 (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 SF, 3…...

How to Choose a Dynasty Orphan – Dynasty Command Center No. 3

Curtis Patrick reviews the process of choosing a dynasty orphan fantasy football team to build into a perennial winner.  I love dynasty football as much as anyone I’ve ever met. Thus, the winter siren song of startup drafts calls loudly to me. I’ve already turned down offers for new leagues. Eventually, I’ll relent because I enjoy working the board and collecting rookies during the draft…...

Drafters Are Still Paying Too Much for the Wrong Numbers: How You Can Exploit RB Advanced Stats in Your Draft – The Wrong Read, No. 73

Blair Andrews explores some of the advanced running back metrics available in the new Advanced Stats Explorer. Are drafters chasing the right stats when making draft day decisions? Or are certain metrics persistently undervalued? In a previous article, I looked at some advanced wide receiver metrics we’ve added to the site to find some with hidden value, and to see how much they change the…...

Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, and Why Fantasy Football Doesn’t Have to Be That Hard: An Introduction to Some New (and Old) Advanced Wide Receiver Metrics

Blair Andrews examines some new advanced metrics in a massive correlation matrix. Should we still be focusing on the same statistics when predicting wide receiver performance? At RotoViz, we always aim to have the most advanced and predictive fantasy metrics in the industry. This means not only having access to many different metrics but also teasing out which metrics give us actual signal, and which…...

Running Back Draft Age Is Still Exploitable And It Provides an Earlier, Larger Edge Than You Might Think, The Wrong Read, No. 72

Blair Andrews revisits his research on running back draft age. Do younger RBs still provide an edge? Where does that edge come from? And which RBs should we be targeting in redraft and trading for in dynasty? We know, when looking for fantasy wide receiver prospects, younger is generally better. Does this hold for running back prospects? In the Wrong Read, No 30, I found…...

RotoViz TriFlex Dynasty and Why Trading Back Is a Win-Now Tactic – The Wrong Read, No. 71

The goal in any dynasty league is, or at least should be, to put yourself in what Shawn Siegele has called the Permanent Championship Window (PCW). Proponents of the PCW look at the debate between win-now and win-later strategies and ask, “why not both?” Suppose you could win in Year 1 … and also in Year 2, Year 3, and beyond. If winning now and…...

We Know We Want Young WRs, But Can Draft Age Help Us Win Rookie Drafts? The Wrong Read, No. 70

It’s not an overstatement to say we’re obsessed with age at RotoViz. This is especially true when it comes to wide receiver prospects. Breakout age is one of our favorite metrics. We always prefer receivers who declare early. And draft age has long been a key piece of our wide receiver evaluation. It’s been a few years since I’ve looked specifically at draft age, so…...

What Metrics Are Most Important for WR Evaluation? Machine Learning Provides Several Surprising Answers – The Wrong Read, No. 68

In the 68th edition of the Wrong Read, Blair Andrews uses a random forest to help you find the most important metrics for wide receiver evaluation. A couple of years ago, I did a fun study called the Ultimate WR Prospect Metrics Guide to determine which metrics best correlated with NFL success. That was a good first step, but it had a couple of holes…....

Pro Day Times and How You Can Gain an Edge by Doing Nothing At All

The year is 2021 and we are still having the same debate that’s been going on for over 10 years. It is particularly poignant this year with the cancellation of the NFL combine due to COVID-19. Why are pro day forty times faster than combine forty times and should we be adjusting them to get an apples-to-apples comparison with official combine laser timing? With no…...

The Makings of An RB1: How to Maximize Your Chances of Selecting Elite RBs in Dynasty

Elite running backs are a precious commodity in dynasty fantasy football. Dave Caban outlines a simple way to maximize your chances of finding tomorrow’s stars. Earlier this month I used regression tree analysis to better understand wide receiver prospect profiles. Regression trees help us to understand the mixture of attributes that tend to drive NFL performance and provide a visual way to understand how these…...

Finding Touchdowns With The New Running Back Freak Score

Freak Score is our home-grown size-adjusted speed metric that uses height, weight, and speed to project the TD-scoring potential for NFL prospects. Unlike many other measures for an NFL prospect’s size/athleticism profile, the Freak Score incorporates player height. Since its inception 6 years ago the NFL has seen a great many changing trends, but the Freak Score has remained a top predictor. I recently went…...

The Prospect Workout Explorer is Here and It Boasts A Bevy of Super Useful Features

D.K. Metcalf turned heads and raised his draft stock at the 2018 NFL combine by displaying an incredible mixture of straight-line speed, leaping ability, and strength. He posted a 4.33 forty-yard dash, a broad jump of 134 inches, a vertical leap of 40.5 inches, and 27 reps on the bench press. I can tell you that those numbers are insane, but with no context, it’s…...

Just How Crazy Was 2020? Insights from the Win the Flex App and Strategies for 2021 Drafts

Drafting successfully means, at least in part, picking the right kinds of players and avoiding the wrong kinds. We provide a lot of guidance at RotoViz on who the right and wrong kind of players to draft are. Still, getting the player selection tactics down is only part of the solution for finding the game-changing win rates we know are possible. Shawn Siegele has detailed…...

Using Regression Tree Analysis To Understand WR Profiles and the 2021 Prospects

Ja’Marr Chase has been lauded by many as one of the best wide receiver prospects to enter the NFL in recent memory. With a ranking of 19 in the current RotoViz Dynasty Rankings, he’s our top prospect from the 2021 class. Why are we, and many others, so optimistic about his future? It’s pretty simple. He’s projected as an early Round 1 pick, made an…...

You’re Probably Targeting Upside and Safety in the Wrong Parts of Your Draft … And Killing Your Best Ball Win Rates – The Wrong Read, No. 67

The previous Wrong Read looked at best ball win rates as a function of age and experience. The surprising finding is that at almost every position, younger and less experienced players underperform. Two factors combine to make this the case. First, the optionality profile of best ball leagues makes them less ideal for players with a wide range of outcomes than traditional redraft leagues. If…...

Dynasty Workshop: How to Win Early Dynasty Startup Drafts Every Year

In the RotoViz Dynasty Workshop Series, dynasty fantasy football maven Curtis Patrick shares all the tips and tricks you need to make 2021 a winning season. In this edition, he shares a proven strategy you can use to win early dynasty startup drafts every year. Dynasty Workshop: How to Win Your Early Startup Draft Every Year Last season, I helped you build the perfect core in your…...

Are Your Best Ball Teams Too Young? Age, Experience, Upside, and Optionality in Redraft and Best Ball – The Wrong Read, No. 66

Anyone who spends much time perusing this site will soon realize we tend to have a strong youth bias. We’re constantly searching for the next rookie sensation, and much of our dynasty advice comes down to selling your stars — especially at RB — while you can still get your leaguemates to pay elite-level prices for them. Nearly always, we advise trying to make your…...

How Old Is Too Old for an NFL RB? The RotoViz Screener Provides Age-Based Targets and Fades

Many owners know, or at least believe, you should sell your running backs once they reach a certain age — around 25, perhaps. I’ve always been wary of such blanket statements, but could this narrative be true? Blair Andrews looked at how RBs age in Running Back Age Curves, Breakout Rates, And Failure Rates – The Wrong Read, No. 35. One of Blair’s key takeaways…...

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