In Defense of Ageism, Part II: The Undervalued Rookie Running Back You Want on All Your Teams
Image Credit: Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Isaiah Spiller.

Blair Andrews turns to the running back position to examine the effects of draft age. How much of a difference does it make, if any?

Last week I detailed why I am an ageist about rookie wide receivers. It may come as no surprise to discover I’m an ageist about rookie running backs as well. While the benefits of declaring early and breaking out at a young age are not as clear or as well documented for RBs, younger RBs tend to outplay their older counterparts. But how much does this really matter? And is it already accounted for once we know draft position?

Measuring the Effects of Draft Age

For the purposes of this analysis, draft age is a player’s age on December 31 in the year of his final college season. It coincides with the Final College Age metric in the RB Prospect Lab. But how much does this metric really matter? The charts below give an indication of just how big a difference it makes for RBs.

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

Please subscribe For Full Access to all RotoViz content and tools!

 

What’s included in your subscription??

  • Exclusive Access to RotoViz Study Hall
    • A treasure trove of our most insightful articles that will teach you the metrics that matter, time-tested winning strategies, the approaches that will give you an edge, and teach you how to be an effective fantasy manager.
  • Revolutionary Tools
    • Including the NFL Stat Explorer, Weekly GLSP Projections, NCAA Prospect Box Score Scout, Combine Explorer, Range of Outcomes App, DFS Lineup Optimizer, Best Ball Suite,and many, many, more.
  • Groundbreaking Articles
    • RotoViz is home of the original Zero-RB article and continues to push fantasy gamers forward as the go-to destination for evidence-based analysis and strategic advantages.
  • Weekly Projections
    • Built using RotoViz’s unique GLSP approach.
  • Expert Rankings
  • And a whole lot more…
LOG IN
SUBSCRIBE

Blair Andrews

Managing Editor, Author of The Wrong Read, Occasional Fantasy Football League Winner. All opinions are someone else's.

Carnell Tate and a Worrying Trend in Prospect Ages: The 2026 Phenom Index for Rookie Wide Receivers

Blair Andrews March 29, 2026

More than a decade ago, RotoViz changed how the NFL saw the intersection of age and production through metrics like the Phenom Index and breakout age. Back in 2015 Jon Moore introduced the Phenom Index, a revolutionary way to measure a college wide receiver’s age-adjusted production. He continued to refine it over the years to develop a metric that has identified some of the top…...

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

Win Probabilities, Value Picks, and Potential Upsets for Your 2026 March Madness Bracket

Blair Andrews March 19, 2026

The madness of NFL free agency has just about given way to the madness of the college basketball playoff. Just like last year, I’m leveraging advanced team metrics and simulations to find value and potential upset picks for your 2026 March Madness bracket. For a more detailed look at the methodology, check out the introductions to the 2024 and 2025 articles. Below I’ll present our best estimates…...

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

The Upcoming Rookie Class Is Breaking the Models, Part 3: The 2026 Wide Receiver Freak Score Leaderboard

Blair Andrews March 4, 2026

We’ve already explored the top running back and tight end athletes in the 2026 rookie class. In both groups we found players setting new records and forcing us to rethink both our models and our priors. But Freak Scores were designed first and foremost to find wide receiver profiles with an advantage in the red zone and around the goal line. The theory has always…...

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

Carnell Tate and a Worrying Trend in Prospect Ages: The 2026 Phenom Index for Rookie Wide Receivers

Blair Andrews March 29, 2026

More than a decade ago, RotoViz changed how the NFL saw the intersection of age and production through metrics like the Phenom Index and breakout age. Back in 2015 Jon Moore introduced the Phenom Index, a revolutionary way to measure a college wide receiver’s age-adjusted production. He continued to refine it over the years to develop a metric that has identified some of the top…...

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

Win Probabilities, Value Picks, and Potential Upsets for Your 2026 March Madness Bracket

Blair Andrews March 19, 2026

The madness of NFL free agency has just about given way to the madness of the college basketball playoff. Just like last year, I’m leveraging advanced team metrics and simulations to find value and potential upset picks for your 2026 March Madness bracket. For a more detailed look at the methodology, check out the introductions to the 2024 and 2025 articles. Below I’ll present our best estimates…...

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

The Upcoming Rookie Class Is Breaking the Models, Part 3: The 2026 Wide Receiver Freak Score Leaderboard

Blair Andrews March 4, 2026

We’ve already explored the top running back and tight end athletes in the 2026 rookie class. In both groups we found players setting new records and forcing us to rethink both our models and our priors. But Freak Scores were designed first and foremost to find wide receiver profiles with an advantage in the red zone and around the goal line. The theory has always…...

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

Analysis

Related Articles

In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

Home

Related Articles

The Blitz

Home
About
Connect
Support

rotovizmain@gmail.com

Sign-up today for our free Premium Email subscription!

Data provided by

© 2021 RotoViz. All rights Reserved.

Terms of Service

Welcome Back to RotoViz...

– IF YOU HAVE ISSUES LOGGING IN PLEASE CONTACT ROTOVIZMAIN@GMAIL.COM

– PLEASE NOTE THAT ROTOVIZ USES WORDPRESS FOR ACCOUNT MANAGEMENT. IF RESETTING YOUR PASSWORD YOU MAY BE FOWARDED TO A WORDPRESS PAGE.