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Are Single Tight End Builds the Strongest Contrarian Strategy in Best Ball? Simulating Millions of Best Ball Teams to Find Out

As we race toward peak fantasy football draft season, we’re seeing the annual flurry of articles exploring running back and wide receiver strategies, correlations, tendencies, and more. These two positions dominate fantasy football discourse for good reason. They will be the largest sources of your teams’ points. All of that research supports a relatively strong understanding of how to draft those positions, particularly in best…...

Are Single Tight End Builds the Strongest Contrarian Strategy in Best Ball? Simulating Millions of Best Ball Teams to Find Out

As we race toward peak fantasy football draft season, we’re seeing the annual flurry of articles exploring running back and wide receiver strategies, correlations, tendencies, and more. These two positions dominate fantasy football discourse for good reason. They will be the largest sources of your teams’ points. All of that research supports a relatively strong understanding of how to draft those positions, particularly in best…...

Are Single Tight End Builds the Strongest Contrarian Strategy in Best Ball? Simulating Millions of Best Ball Teams to Find Out

As we race toward peak fantasy football draft season, we’re seeing the annual flurry of articles exploring running back and wide receiver strategies, correlations, tendencies, and more. These two positions dominate fantasy football discourse for good reason. They will be the largest sources of your teams’ points. All of that research supports a relatively strong understanding of how to draft those positions, particularly in best…...

Redraft

In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

Should We Still Be Chasing Year 2 WR Breakouts? 3 Receivers History Is Begging You to Draft

In 2021, DeVonta Smith, then a rookie, was going off the board in Round 8 of FFPC Best Ball drafts. At the time it might have seemed early, but it was about 30 picks later than fellow rookie Ja’Marr Chase. In any case, Smith ended up finishing his rookie year with nearly 180 PPR points, including about 13 points over expectation — a solid finish…...

This Alvin Kamara/Tony Pollard Clone Is Borderline Free and a Must-Draft In All Formats

Shawn Siegele helps you find the next Alvin Kamara or Tony Pollard, a player currently going for peanuts in 2024 fantasy football drafts. Alvin Kamara and Tony Pollard possess a lot of similarities even though their careers have taken different trajectories. Their paths illustrate two of the possible outcomes for players with their prospect profile: Kamara, an extreme ceiling outcome and Pollard, a well-above-average outcome…....

Proudly Uncorrelated: Why My Love Affair with FPOE Continues Despite Its Volatility

Expected points (EP) correlate better to future fantasy success than fantasy points over expected (FPOE). FPOE is tied to big plays and TDs meaning it is also tied to missed tackles and blown assignments; in turn, it is generally more volatile. Some rightly source a degree of potential upcoming regression by comparing FPOE to EP; a massive disparity between them may signal that someone has…...

Should We Still Be Chasing Year 2 WR Breakouts? 3 Receivers History Is Begging You to Draft

In 2021, DeVonta Smith, then a rookie, was going off the board in Round 8 of FFPC Best Ball drafts. At the time it might have seemed early, but it was about 30 picks later than fellow rookie Ja’Marr Chase. In any case, Smith ended up finishing his rookie year with nearly 180 PPR points, including about 13 points over expectation — a solid finish…...

This Alvin Kamara/Tony Pollard Clone Is Borderline Free and a Must-Draft In All Formats

Shawn Siegele helps you find the next Alvin Kamara or Tony Pollard, a player currently going for peanuts in 2024 fantasy football drafts. Alvin Kamara and Tony Pollard possess a lot of similarities even though their careers have taken different trajectories. Their paths illustrate two of the possible outcomes for players with their prospect profile: Kamara, an extreme ceiling outcome and Pollard, a well-above-average outcome…....

Proudly Uncorrelated: Why My Love Affair with FPOE Continues Despite Its Volatility

Expected points (EP) correlate better to future fantasy success than fantasy points over expected (FPOE). FPOE is tied to big plays and TDs meaning it is also tied to missed tackles and blown assignments; in turn, it is generally more volatile. Some rightly source a degree of potential upcoming regression by comparing FPOE to EP; a massive disparity between them may signal that someone has…...

Dynasty

In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

This Alvin Kamara/Tony Pollard Clone Is Borderline Free and a Must-Draft In All Formats

Shawn Siegele helps you find the next Alvin Kamara or Tony Pollard, a player currently going for peanuts in 2024 fantasy football drafts. Alvin Kamara and Tony Pollard possess a lot of similarities even though their careers have taken different trajectories. Their paths illustrate two of the possible outcomes for players with their prospect profile: Kamara, an extreme ceiling outcome and Pollard, a well-above-average outcome…....

Theo Johnson is an Intriguing Prospect, but Will he be a Fantasy Factor in 2024?

After his offseason antics, Theo Johnson became a name to monitor among NFL draftniks and dynasty managers. His apparent lack of college production, allied to a fascinating athletic profile, made his NFL landing spot a point of interest. But what is the NFL getting in Johnson, and should fantasy managers be paying closer attention? Who is This Guy Anyway? Johnson does not, it must be…...

One, Both, or None? Should We Be Adding Patriots Rookie Wide Receivers Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker to Our Dynasty Rosters?

Looking all the way back to the turn of the century, the New England Patriots’ history of drafting wide receivers has not been pretty. Since 2000, only two wide receivers that the team has drafted — Julian Edelman and Matthew Slater — have made the Pro Bowl. Although he has been a staple at the NFL’s annual all-star game since 2011, Slater’s inclusion should come…...

This Alvin Kamara/Tony Pollard Clone Is Borderline Free and a Must-Draft In All Formats

Shawn Siegele helps you find the next Alvin Kamara or Tony Pollard, a player currently going for peanuts in 2024 fantasy football drafts. Alvin Kamara and Tony Pollard possess a lot of similarities even though their careers have taken different trajectories. Their paths illustrate two of the possible outcomes for players with their prospect profile: Kamara, an extreme ceiling outcome and Pollard, a well-above-average outcome…....

Theo Johnson is an Intriguing Prospect, but Will he be a Fantasy Factor in 2024?

After his offseason antics, Theo Johnson became a name to monitor among NFL draftniks and dynasty managers. His apparent lack of college production, allied to a fascinating athletic profile, made his NFL landing spot a point of interest. But what is the NFL getting in Johnson, and should fantasy managers be paying closer attention? Who is This Guy Anyway? Johnson does not, it must be…...

One, Both, or None? Should We Be Adding Patriots Rookie Wide Receivers Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker to Our Dynasty Rosters?

Looking all the way back to the turn of the century, the New England Patriots’ history of drafting wide receivers has not been pretty. Since 2000, only two wide receivers that the team has drafted — Julian Edelman and Matthew Slater — have made the Pro Bowl. Although he has been a staple at the NFL’s annual all-star game since 2011, Slater’s inclusion should come…...

Best Ball

In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

Are Single Tight End Builds the Strongest Contrarian Strategy in Best Ball? Simulating Millions of Best Ball Teams to Find Out

As we race toward peak fantasy football draft season, we’re seeing the annual flurry of articles exploring running back and wide receiver strategies, correlations, tendencies, and more. These two positions dominate fantasy football discourse for good reason. They will be the largest sources of your teams’ points. All of that research supports a relatively strong understanding of how to draft those positions, particularly in best…...

Should We Still Be Chasing Year 2 WR Breakouts? 3 Receivers History Is Begging You to Draft

In 2021, DeVonta Smith, then a rookie, was going off the board in Round 8 of FFPC Best Ball drafts. At the time it might have seemed early, but it was about 30 picks later than fellow rookie Ja’Marr Chase. In any case, Smith ended up finishing his rookie year with nearly 180 PPR points, including about 13 points over expectation — a solid finish…...

This Alvin Kamara/Tony Pollard Clone Is Borderline Free and a Must-Draft In All Formats

Shawn Siegele helps you find the next Alvin Kamara or Tony Pollard, a player currently going for peanuts in 2024 fantasy football drafts. Alvin Kamara and Tony Pollard possess a lot of similarities even though their careers have taken different trajectories. Their paths illustrate two of the possible outcomes for players with their prospect profile: Kamara, an extreme ceiling outcome and Pollard, a well-above-average outcome…....

Devy

In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

Which 2024 RB Draft Prospects Look Like Broken Tackle Monsters?

Shawn Siegele discusses the role of broken tackles in NFL draft evaluation and breaks down the top prospects in the 2024 class. The first edition of the 2024 RotoViz Rookie Guide will be out shortly, and I’m excited for what will be our best product yet. We’ll be using all of the signature RotoViz rookie metrics, as well as a ton of advanced stats from…...

Devy

In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

Which 2024 RB Draft Prospects Look Like Broken Tackle Monsters?

Shawn Siegele discusses the role of broken tackles in NFL draft evaluation and breaks down the top prospects in the 2024 class. The first edition of the 2024 RotoViz Rookie Guide will be out shortly, and I’m excited for what will be our best product yet. We’ll be using all of the signature RotoViz rookie metrics, as well as a ton of advanced stats from…...

3 Young Wide Receivers Are Poised to Take Over the Top Spots in Dynasty Rankings: The Next Big Thing – WR Edition

The NFL Draft is behind us, and it is time for us to venture boldly into the most beautiful time of year, fantasy draft season. Whether you play in dynasty, devy, or C2C leagues, RotoViz has you covered. This series of articles will focus on the next generation of fantasy football stars and potential breakout candidates waiting to take the world by storm. I will…...

2 Upcoming Stars Are Ready to Take Over the Dynasty Rankings: The Next Big Thing – Running Back Edition

The NFL Draft is behind us, and it is time for us to venture boldly into the most beautiful time of year, fantasy draft season. Whether you play in dynasty, devy, or C2C leagues, RotoViz has you covered. This series of articles will focus on the next generation of fantasy football stars and potential breakout candidates waiting to take the world by storm as not…...

In-Season

In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

A 2023 Self-Appraisal: Transparency, Accountability, and the Pursuit of Betterment, Part 3 – Weeks 9-12

“Self-examination, the observation of one’s own experience, is the very root of the intelligence.” – Jiddu Krishnamurti. Using self-examination to accept the person you are could be worthwhile for your mental health, but it can’t generally improve your performance at a craft. Using self-examination to become better requires action. And it begins with an honest evaluation of what you have been doing and what results…...

More Projections and Optimals for FFPC Playoff Contests: The Wrong Read, Divisional Round

Week 2 of the Playoffs also brings Part 2 of the FFPC Playoff Challenge. The rules are a little different, and the prizes are a little smaller, but the games are more important and arguably less predictable. The Divisional Round Playoff Challenge differs from the original version in that it only includes eight roster spots. There are only eight teams remaining in the playoffs, so…...

The Gauntlet Returns: How to Navigate Underdog’s Divisional Round ADP

Shawn Siegele explores the nuances of building Underdog playoff rosters now that we’re down to eight teams as we enter the Divisional Round. Wild Card weekend lived up to its branding and delivered in a way that regular season football generally did not in 2023. As Colm and I broke down on Overtime yesterday, the initial wave of playoff games followed our expected script but…...

RotoViz Study Hall

In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

Since the inception of RotoViz in 2013, the site has become famous for its groundbreaking content, evidence-based approach, and contrarian point of view. Along the way, it has contributed important discoveries, developed league-winning approaches, and made fantasy gamers smarter.

Visit the RotoViz Study Hall to read infamous pieces, learn the most important lessons the site has produced, gain a stronger appreciation for the data points that actually matter, and take the first step toward becoming a self-reliant fantasy manager.

Good Players Are Good: Why You Should Chase Rookie-Year Efficiency at RB – The Wrong Read, No. 52

Welcome to the 52nd installment of The Wrong Read. Based on the number of articles appearing in this “weekly” series, one year has passed since we started. Strangely it’s taken about 16 months to get here. The thing is, time slows down as you approach a massive object like the black hole that is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers football team. Ronald Jones is evidently on…...

Zero RB, Antifragility, and the Myth of Value-Based Drafting

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of The Black Swan, has a new book out, and, if anything, it’s probably even more potent (if also self-contradictory in many places). The book is called Antifragile and this is his definition of the term: Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure. Yet in spite of the…...

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