The Composite Dynasty QB Rankings

AaronRodgers

One of the things that’s very difficult to weigh when creating rankings, like our current dynasty ranks, is tail risk. What value should we, or could we, assign to low likelihood events?

For instance, Tony Romo is both recovering from a back injury himself and also has a wide receiver (Dez Bryant) that has been dealing with back issues. If either player has issues with their back in 2014 then Romo’s dynasty value is not QB14 as we have him. It’s QB Nothing.

If you try to incorporate information like rare events like back injuries, or player suspensions, into your ranks – it can be maddening. The catalyst for change that will make you correct will come along so rarely that it will seem like it never comes along (unless you’re Jacob Rickrode) and then when it does, you’ll still look like you missed by a lot because the value of that player will go to zero, instead of your prediction which accounted for a range of scenarios.

If you look at the QB rankings you can see examples of players that could be impacted by tail risks. Peyton Manning has been healthy for two years although it’s worth remembering that one year people drafted him all of the way into mid-August 2011, thinking there would be no problem with his recovery from neck injury. Our perception of his risk of missing time was not matched with the actual odds of missing time. The potential for Manning to suffer some career ending injury is just one example of how the rankings could be impacted.

Matt Ryan’s value would likely crater without Julio Jones.

Matthew Stafford’s value would certainly crater without Calvin Johnson.

Most of the QBs on this list are sensitive not only to the impact of their own injuries, but also their receivers.

That was a long intro to get to my point that I do think Aaron Rodgers has unique value. His splits with/without either of Randall Cobb or Jordy Nelson are almost identical. Now that the Packers have allocated draft resources to re-loading the receiver chamber, I think it’s fair to say that Rodgers may be uniquely sensitive only to his own health. His ability to spread the ball around, combined with the GB focus on getting him a range of weapons makes this the case. I suppose you still have to worry about Rodgers getting hurt, but at least you’ve narrowed the list a little.

Without further ado, the QB Composite Rankings.

The rankers are: FD = Fantasy Douche, DM = Davis Mattek, MF = Matthew Freedman, SS = Shawn Siegele, SS2 = Scott Smith,WTF = Whisky Tango Foxtrot, BF = Bryan Fontaine, CTK = Coleman Kelly CR = the Composite Ranking

PLAYERFDSSCTKMFBFWTFSS2DMCR
Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB111121111
Stafford, Matthew DET QB4221042232
Luck, Andrew IND QB256415553
Foles, Nick PHI QB533677344
Newton, Cam CAR QB395536625
Brees, Drew NOS QB7610254486
Griffin III, Robert WAS QB647788767
Manning, Peyton DEN QB9811363998
Wilson, Russell SEA QB1011489118109
Ryan, Matt ATL QB1112811119101310
Kaepernick, Colin SFO QB8109121012121210
Manziel, Johnny CLE QB1371316131313712
Romo, Tony DAL QB15161791510151113
Brady, Tom NEP QB171412131415151514
Cutler, Jay CHI QB161319151217171415
Dalton, Andy CIN QB141718181920161616
Rivers, Philip SDC QB182221141816141817
Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB122122192019111717
Bridgewater, Teddy MIN QB202014171714192017
Tannehill, Ryan MIA QB191815221618181920
Bortles, Blake JAC QB232416262222212121
Smith, Alex KCC QB241924202323232222
Bradford, Sam STL QB252326232121202323
McCown, Josh TBB QB261523302826302724
Smith, Geno NYJ QB212534212727262825
Manuel, E.J. BUF QB272731252425272426
Flacco, Joe BAL QB222630282531242527
Palmer, Carson ARI QB282829293124282628
Locker, Jake TEN QB292927273229252929
Manning, Eli NYG QB309928242628293030
Glennon, Mike TBB QB319925343430223231
Osweiler, Brock DEN QB323520363333313732
Vick, Michael NYJ QB333033313039353133
Schaub, Matt OAK QB343132994032343434
Carr, Derek OAK QB353499322934369935
Mallett, Ryan NEP QB363636373736374036
Cousins, Kirk WAS QB379937993599323637
Hoyer, Brian CLE QB383238999999993338
Mettenberger, Zach TEN QB404099393637393839
Murray, Aaron KCC QB999999333838409940
Garoppolo, Jimmy NEP QB993799389999339941
Fitzpatrick, Ryan HOU QB993340999940389942
Henne, Chad JAC QB993943359935999943
Thomas, Logan ARI QB393899409999999944
Fales, David CHI QB999999993999993945