One of the things that’s very difficult to weigh when creating rankings, like our current dynasty ranks, is tail risk. What value should we, or could we, assign to low likelihood events?
For instance, Tony Romo is both recovering from a back injury himself and also has a wide receiver (Dez Bryant) that has been dealing with back issues. If either player has issues with their back in 2014 then Romo’s dynasty value is not QB14 as we have him. It’s QB Nothing.
If you try to incorporate information like rare events like back injuries, or player suspensions, into your ranks – it can be maddening. The catalyst for change that will make you correct will come along so rarely that it will seem like it never comes along (unless you’re Jacob Rickrode) and then when it does, you’ll still look like you missed by a lot because the value of that player will go to zero, instead of your prediction which accounted for a range of scenarios.
If you look at the QB rankings you can see examples of players that could be impacted by tail risks. Peyton Manning has been healthy for two years although it’s worth remembering that one year people drafted him all of the way into mid-August 2011, thinking there would be no problem with his recovery from neck injury. Our perception of his risk of missing time was not matched with the actual odds of missing time. The potential for Manning to suffer some career ending injury is just one example of how the rankings could be impacted.
Matt Ryan’s value would likely crater without Julio Jones.
Matthew Stafford’s value would certainly crater without Calvin Johnson.
Most of the QBs on this list are sensitive not only to the impact of their own injuries, but also their receivers.
That was a long intro to get to my point that I do think Aaron Rodgers has unique value. His splits with/without either of Randall Cobb or Jordy Nelson are almost identical. Now that the Packers have allocated draft resources to re-loading the receiver chamber, I think it’s fair to say that Rodgers may be uniquely sensitive only to his own health. His ability to spread the ball around, combined with the GB focus on getting him a range of weapons makes this the case. I suppose you still have to worry about Rodgers getting hurt, but at least you’ve narrowed the list a little.
Without further ado, the QB Composite Rankings.
The rankers are: FD = Fantasy Douche, DM = Davis Mattek, MF = Matthew Freedman, SS = Shawn Siegele, SS2 = Scott Smith,WTF = Whisky Tango Foxtrot, BF = Bryan Fontaine, CTK = Coleman Kelly CR = the Composite Ranking
|Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB||1||1||1||1||2||1||1||1||1|
|Stafford, Matthew DET QB||4||2||2||10||4||2||2||3||2|
|Luck, Andrew IND QB||2||5||6||4||1||5||5||5||3|
|Foles, Nick PHI QB||5||3||3||6||7||7||3||4||4|
|Newton, Cam CAR QB||3||9||5||5||3||6||6||2||5|
|Brees, Drew NOS QB||7||6||10||2||5||4||4||8||6|
|Griffin III, Robert WAS QB||6||4||7||7||8||8||7||6||7|
|Manning, Peyton DEN QB||9||8||11||3||6||3||9||9||8|
|Wilson, Russell SEA QB||10||11||4||8||9||11||8||10||9|
|Ryan, Matt ATL QB||11||12||8||11||11||9||10||13||10|
|Kaepernick, Colin SFO QB||8||10||9||12||10||12||12||12||10|
|Manziel, Johnny CLE QB||13||7||13||16||13||13||13||7||12|
|Romo, Tony DAL QB||15||16||17||9||15||10||15||11||13|
|Brady, Tom NEP QB||17||14||12||13||14||15||15||15||14|
|Cutler, Jay CHI QB||16||13||19||15||12||17||17||14||15|
|Dalton, Andy CIN QB||14||17||18||18||19||20||16||16||16|
|Rivers, Philip SDC QB||18||22||21||14||18||16||14||18||17|
|Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB||12||21||22||19||20||19||11||17||17|
|Bridgewater, Teddy MIN QB||20||20||14||17||17||14||19||20||17|
|Tannehill, Ryan MIA QB||19||18||15||22||16||18||18||19||20|
|Bortles, Blake JAC QB||23||24||16||26||22||22||21||21||21|
|Smith, Alex KCC QB||24||19||24||20||23||23||23||22||22|
|Bradford, Sam STL QB||25||23||26||23||21||21||20||23||23|
|McCown, Josh TBB QB||26||15||23||30||28||26||30||27||24|
|Smith, Geno NYJ QB||21||25||34||21||27||27||26||28||25|
|Manuel, E.J. BUF QB||27||27||31||25||24||25||27||24||26|
|Flacco, Joe BAL QB||22||26||30||28||25||31||24||25||27|
|Palmer, Carson ARI QB||28||28||29||29||31||24||28||26||28|
|Locker, Jake TEN QB||29||29||27||27||32||29||25||29||29|
|Manning, Eli NYG QB||30||99||28||24||26||28||29||30||30|
|Glennon, Mike TBB QB||31||99||25||34||34||30||22||32||31|
|Osweiler, Brock DEN QB||32||35||20||36||33||33||31||37||32|
|Vick, Michael NYJ QB||33||30||33||31||30||39||35||31||33|
|Schaub, Matt OAK QB||34||31||32||99||40||32||34||34||34|
|Carr, Derek OAK QB||35||34||99||32||29||34||36||99||35|
|Mallett, Ryan NEP QB||36||36||36||37||37||36||37||40||36|
|Cousins, Kirk WAS QB||37||99||37||99||35||99||32||36||37|
|Hoyer, Brian CLE QB||38||32||38||99||99||99||99||33||38|
|Mettenberger, Zach TEN QB||40||40||99||39||36||37||39||38||39|
|Murray, Aaron KCC QB||99||99||99||33||38||38||40||99||40|
|Garoppolo, Jimmy NEP QB||99||37||99||38||99||99||33||99||41|
|Fitzpatrick, Ryan HOU QB||99||33||40||99||99||40||38||99||42|
|Henne, Chad JAC QB||99||39||43||35||99||35||99||99||43|
|Thomas, Logan ARI QB||39||38||99||40||99||99||99||99||44|
|Fales, David CHI QB||99||99||99||99||39||99||99||39||45|