This week we travel to Club de Golf Chapultepec in Naucalpan, which is just northwest of Mexico City. This is the second year the event has been played here and last year there was a lot of sickness, most notably involving a withdrawal from the high-owned Henrik Stenson and the Tyrrell Hatton white pants incident.
Notes: High elevation, flat, tree-lined tight fairways
We don’t have a key stats correlation search due to several factors: only one year of data, many of the players on the leaderboard being from the Euro Tour (leading to limited strokes gained data), and no shotlink data at the course. We can see, however, with the leaderboard of Dustin Johnson, Tommy Fleetwood, Ross Fisher, Jon Rahm, and Thomas Pieters that we need guys who are long off the tee and prolific tee-to-green.
While the course plays short due to very high elevation, the longer hitters can club down, play the ball accurately, and still attack the par 4s and 5s. There is little course history, so we will need to concentrate on recent form. Ownership will be very important this week with a short field and a lot of lineup overlap. If there are players approaching 30 percent owned, I would feel very comfortable fading them.
While the top-four studs are all more than capable of winning this week, I really like taking the discount on comparable players Rickie Fowler, Justin Rose, and Sergio Garcia, putting two in the same lineup, and building from there. Justin Thomas is coming off of a win, Jordan Spieth is playing worse than the other guys up top T2G, and Rahm seems to be over the extreme run he was on early in the season. Dustin Johnson is the guy I think there is merit to playing up top, but he’s very expensive at $11.9K and makes it difficult to get other guys in the mid range. Getting a low-end golfer through the cut will not be enough this week – there is no cut. You need all six of your guys to be near the top of the leaderboard to bink a GPP.
$9.8K Rickie Fowler
His form is great outside of one bad week. He went from the most expensive guy on the slate last week to the sixth and under $10K. I’ll happily take the discount and make a more balanced lineup with just as much upside if not more. In addition, he’s projected at around 10 percent ownership, ridiculous at this price.
$9.7K Justin Rose
Rose is playing incredible golf over the last few months with six top 10s in his last seven events and two wins, including Euro Tour play. His stats check out as he is playing very well on his way to the greens, which is key here.
$9.1K Sergio Garcia
Garcia played the fifth best in the field tee-to-green last week and just didn’t putt very well. We can only hope he is low owned at his depressed price with others paying up for the five-digit guys.
$8.7K Patrick Cantlay
Cantlay has the distance to succeed and has been in the top 10 T2G in his last two tournaments. The price is a discount, even in this field, as the guy seems to always be contending at some point each week.
$8.4K Paul Casey
After one bad performance DraftKings chopped his price down a lot. He’s a great pivot from Tony Finau, who should be very popular coming off of a second-place finish. Casey is the second-best odds value of the golfers this week at 30-1 to win,
$8.1K Kevin Chappell
Chappell has gained the third-most strokes T2G over his last 12 rounds vs the field, averaging 2 per round. He is up there behind only Tommy Fleetwood and Dustin Johnson. A few rounds of good putting will have him high up on the leaderboard.
$7.6K Matt Kuchar
This an odds value for Kuchar. He should stay in the fairway and has a great short game that can lead to a ton of birdies.
$7.6K Marc Leishman
I’m more comfortable playing Leishman at this price compared to the $8K or $9K range where he’s been lately. He’s a good last or second-to-last guy in where I’m not sacrificing another high-end play. He is the best odds value on the board at 55-1 to win.
$7.3K Francesco Molinari
This is a great price for a guy who has evolved into one of the best off-the-tee players on tour. He also carries upside, contrary to popular belief, finishing in the top 25 of birdie or better percentage on tour last year. He is so accurate off the tee that he will be able to play his driver when others club down and reach a similar distance off the tee, allowing him to still attack holes.