The Fantasy Football Ghost welcomes us to Week 4 with some DraftKings NFL cash plays to pay attention to!
Well, you win some and you lose some. Other times you lose your pants. The Vikings were thoroughly trounced and really hurt the Kirk Cousins recommendation. Cousins did manage to squeeze out some value, posting 13.04 points, good for a hair under two-times value. The rest of my suggestions brought the overall average for the week up to 2.33 times value, falling just shy of the mark of 2.5 times value. The standout performer was George Kittle, who posted 14.9 points, good for 3.31 times value.
DraftKings NFL Cash Plays for Week 4
Philip Rivers – $6,500
After a very tough matchup against the Rams, Philip Rivers gets an easier NFC West opponent in San Francisco. The 49ers are allowing the sixth-most fantasy point to opposing quarterbacks and Rivers is leading a Chargers team that is the biggest favorite on the slate and also the team with the second-largest implied point total. The combination gives Rivers a strong projection in Game Level Similarity, according to the Weekly Stat Explorer.
San Francisco makes a perfect opponent for Rivers to post huge numbers against. The 49ers are also allowing the eighth-most passing yards in the league and are tied for allowing the second-most passing touchdowns per game. Conversely, the Chargers are averaging the 10th-most passing yards per game and the second-most passing touchdowns per game. Rivers is starring a huge opportunity in the face, make sure you take a nice hard look at him for your DraftKings cash lineups this week.
Mitchell Trubisky vs. Tampa Bay – Trubisky will likely be throwing the ball a lot against a subpar Tampa Bay defense. The Buccaneers are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. This is a serious value play for those looking to save at the quarterback position.
Josh Allen vs. Green Bay – Another value play here as Josh Allen faces off against a Packers team that is allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks while allowing the 10th-highest passer rating to opposing quarterbacks. Allen will be playing from behind most of the game, increasing the amount of opportunities he will be presented with.
Giovani Bernard – $6,300
Giovani Bernard had to assume the mantle of a bell bow running back for Cincinnati after Joe Mixon suffered a knee injury in Week Two. The Falcons present a prime matchup for any running back as they are allowing the third-most fantasy points in the NFL to opposing running backs. Much of this is due to the fact that the Falcons are tied for allowing the second-most rushing touchdowns per game. Of note, the Falcons opponents have collectively targeted their running backs with 37 percent of all passes thrown against Atlanta’s defense, the highest percentage of any defense in the league, a full sixth percentage points higher than the second-highest team. Over the past two week the Falcons allowed 15 receptions to Alvin Kamara in Week 3 and 14 receptions to Christian McCaffrey in Week 2.
The Bengals are likely to be playing from behind, and Bernard ranked fourth in snaps counts in Week 3, jumping from 14 to 39 to 57 in the three games this season. His opportunities and expected fantasy points also made the jump.
Other Running Backs:
Ezekiel Elliott vs. Detroit – The Lions are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Elliott, meanwhile, has the fourth-highest DraftKings point average of all running backs. Look for fireworks.
Alvin Kamara vs. New York (Giants) – This is the second week that both Kamara and the Giants are feature in the Other Running Backs section. The Giants allow the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, and the RB Leaderboard feature in the Explorer helps illustrate how dynamic Kamara’s been.
Kamara and Elliott both rank in the top 10 in expected fantasy points a game. It’s easy to see why when Kamara leads the way with 28 red zone opportunities. Elliott has the second-best rush share, helping to validate his situation even in a poor offense.
Odell Beckham Jr. – $8,700
Odell Beckham Jr. has, perhaps, the most advantageous match up that I have seen in quite some time. With the Giants facing off against the Saint, Beckham draws a defense that is giving up the most fantasy points in the league to wide receivers and is also ranked as the second-worst defense against WR1s by DVOA. Additionally, the Saints are allowing the fourth-most passing yards to opponents and are tied for the most passing touchdowns allowed. As if much more explanation is needed, New Orleans is also allowing 13.6 yards per pass attempt to opposing wide receiver, the most in the NFL, and a full 76 percent of opponent’s pass attempts are completed, the second-highest rate in the league.
Dave Caban’s Explorer is projecting 15 points on the low end of the spectrum based on similar matchups, with a high of 24 points. Beckham will be in nearly every one of my personal lineups this weekend. You might want to consider him in yours as well.
Other Wide Receivers:
Marquise Goodwin vs. Los Angeles (Chargers) – A pure value play here, Goodwin faces a Chargers defense that is allowing the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers and the league’s most points to WR1s. With the 49ers likely playing from behind most of the game, look for a ton of opportunities heading Goodwin’s way.
Nelson Agholor vs. Tennessee – While Alshon Jeffrey is likely to return in this game, look for Agholor to remain the Eagles WR1 so they can ease Jeffrey back into the swing of things. The Titans are allowing eighth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
Trey Burton – $3,900
Trey Burton has been quite underwhelming thus far through three games. Projected at the opening of the season to be a TE1, Burton has only nine receptions and has yet to break 100 receiving yards overall. However, Tampa Bay has been absolutely leaking fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
Vance McDonald and Zach Ertz have already gone over 20 points against Tampa Bay, helping to explain why they’ve allowed the league’s most fantasy points to the position. Tampa Bay opponents have targeted their tight ends with 24 percent of all passes, and the Buccaneers are allowing 10.6 yards per pass attempt to the position. If there is ever a game for Burton to “get right,” it’s this one!
Other Tight Ends:
Eric Ebron vs. Houston – The Texans are allowing a league-high 14.0 yards per attempt to opposing tight ends. Houston also has the league’s worst defensive DVOA against the position. With Jack Doyle out, Ebron could explode.
Jimmy Graham vs. Buffalo – The Bills rank among the 10 worst teams against tight ends in fantasy points allowed (ninth-worst) and yards per pass attempt (ninth-worst). Graham has been relatively quiet through the start of the 2018 season. Here’s his opportunity to reassert himself.
As a reminder, you can also use the DFS Lineup Optimizer in tandem with these recommendations to create multiple lineups featuring the recommendations. The Optimizer uses the GLSP projections in concert with salary to create the best possible lineup, and it allows you functionality to lock and blacklist certain players.
For example, I could pre-select Rivers and Bernard, while blocking Larry Fitzgerald and Dion Lewis.
When I ask it to compute, it provides the following lineup, in this case picking out my favorite WR selection in Beckham and one of my secondary TE selections in Ebron.
Check out the DFS Lineup Optimizer, and take some time playing with the extra data it also provides.
Here’s to getting us all back on a winning track this week! Good luck to everyone and be sure to come back next week to see how these players performed.