Championship Week is here. If you aren’t in your league’s big game then The Fantasy Football Ghost has some players for your Week 16 FanDuel cash games.
While the last few weeks have been brutal, Week 15 saw a bit of a turnaround for us. It wasn’t quite back to those great weeks where we were consistently over 2.5 times value, but it was an improvement, something to build upon. Week 15 saw us post an average value of 1.29 times value. The worst player we played last week was Kenny Golladay who only scored 5.9 points despite a $7,900 price tag. Meanwhile, on the other side of the spectrum, Baker Mayfield led our suggested players with 17.98 points from a $7,700 price tag. With only two weeks of the regular season left, let’s power strong into Week 16.
To measure the success of the players I recommend to our RotoViz readers, I will review the players I recommended the prior week, determining their value multiplier. I will then calculate the average multiplier across the recommended players to give me a barometer of success for that week. My stated goal is to produce an average greater than 2.5-times value. If I can manage to surpass that goal, I will consider the week a success. If I fall short of that goal, obviously, the week would be considered unsuccessful.
You can find much of the data presented in this piece in the RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer and Game Level Similarity Projections. I also want to encourage readers to check out the RotoViz NFL Lineup Optimizer so that everyone can squeeze the most value out of their lineups each week.
FanDuel NFL Cash Plays for Week 16
Quarterback: Drew Lock ($7,300)
Drew Lock finally got his chance as a starter just as the month of December kicked off. In the three games since his first start, he has accumulated 651 passing yards, five passing touchdowns and three interceptions. Lock has been fairly average with an undeniably excellent game sandwiched between his first and most recent start. He looks poised to see a nice rebound this week versus a Detroit defense that is one of the better quarterback matchups this week.
The RotoViz Fantasy Streaming App has pegged the Lions defense as the second-best matchup for the quarterback position for Week 16. Riding that wave, Lock faces a Detriot defense that has allowed the most passing yards in the NFL over the past five weeks and an average of 25 PPR points per game, the seventh-most in the league. Luckily, Lock need only hit 18.25 to eclipse 2.5 times value, a goal that appears well within reach.
Running Back: Joe Mixon ($7,800)
I’m taking a different path than prior weeks with a somewhat more modestly priced running back this week. As such, Joe Mixon fits our newly developed mold for both price and upside with a very affordable $7,800 price tag. Mixon also draws a favorable matchup against Miami who has allowed an average of 116 rushing yards per game over the past five games, good for the seventh-most rushing yards allowed over that span.
The most intriguing statistic over that five-game span is the fact that the Dolphins have allowed an average of one rushing touchdown per game. This has resulted in Miami surrendering an average of 26.7 PPR points per game, also the seventh-most points allowed. Conversely, Mixon has performed as an RB1 60% of the time over that same five-game span with an average of 17.7 points per game. Look for these trends to continue this Sunday.
Wide Receiver: D.J. Moore ($6,600)
D.J. Moore will be a bit of a risky play with his starting quarterback changing to Will Grier, but the matchup, as well as the price, provides us with a golden opportunity. Moore and the Panthers will face off against the Colts, a defense that has allowed an average of 49.7 PPR points to opposing wide receivers over the past five games, the most of any defense in the NFL. This is due, in equal parts, to Indianapolis allowing an average of 15 receptions to the position per game, the second-most in the league, and to allowing 210.6 receiving yards per game, also the second-most in the NFL.
The WR1 for each of the past five opponents the Colts have faced have averaged a PPR score of 23.3 points while the Game Level Similarity Projections lists a PPR average for Moore of 22.8 points. If he is able to score those 22.8 points then Moore would be an exceptional value at 3.45 times value while simultaneously allowing us to fit some highly-priced stars into our line up.
Tight End: Jacob Hollister ($5,700)
While there are a significant number of higher-priced tight ends on this slate, there are not many who have favorable matchups. Jacob Hollister, on the other hand, is still a relative unknown but is part of a high-powered offense, has a very affordable price, and is facing an Arizona defense that is one of the best match-ups available on this slate. The Cardinals have allowed an average of 15 points to opposing TE1s over the past five weeks which, if Hollister scores those 15 points, would make him a 2.63 times value.
Furthermore, the Game Level Similarity Projections tool projects that he will score the fifth-most points among all tight ends this week with an average score of 13.5 points. There are several signs that appear to be pointing towards Hollister being a solid 2.5 times value with a very affordable $5,700 price tag.
While our luck has improved a little bit, we need to get it back to, or above, that 2.5 times value mark. We only have a couple weeks left to get back to where we need to be so cross your fingers. As always, good luck to everyone, and feel free to both reach out to me and follow me on Twitter at @TheFFGhost. I’ll do my best to answer any and all questions you may have.