It’s getting down to the wire but The Fantasy Football Ghost has some solid DraftKings NFL cash plays for Week 15 to share with us!
Last week was one of the biggest boom or bust weeks we’ve seen all season, and it seemingly came out of nowhere. We had absolutely massive performances by Dak Prescott, Tom Brady, Andrew Luck, Amari Cooper and George Kittle who all went over five times value, to say nothing of Derrick Henry‘s massive performance on Thursday night. Honestly, if you didn’t have one of these guys in your lineup then you likely didn’t walk away with a win in any of your DraftKings NFL cash games, no matter how good your lineup performed collectively. I’ll be honest with you, those performance would have been incredibly tough to predict. Sure, those are talented players who could pop off at any point, but in terms of predictability, even the staunchest supporters of these players would have a hard time predicting the results we saw.
On the flip side, several players who were in an opportunity to see big games fell flat. Such is the game of fantasy football. Last week the players I suggested only managed to scrape together a value of 1.9 times their price. Well below the 2.5 times value I hold myself to. This was one of my few bad weeks and I have every intention of making that an isolated incident. Let’s see what Week 15 has in store for us.
As a reminder, I will put forth a few players each week that I think you should work into your cash line ups. Some weeks I might only have a single player at a position, the next week I may have three, it is all going to depend on the strength of the slate, the values present on a given week and the match ups. The following week I will recap how my picks fared. A successful week will be determined by the players I suggest averaging 2.5 times their value, while an unsuccessful week will be an average under 2.5 times value.
Another quick reminder, much of the data presented in this piece can be found in Dave Caban’s Weekly Stat Explorer, found here. Check it out to keep on top of all the week’s key match ups!
DraftKings NFL Cash Plays for Week 15
Tom Brady – $5,900
This is the time of the season that the Patriots tend to come alive, win tough games and ramp up for a run at the Super Bowl. This year is a little different as New England has dropped two of their last four games with last week’s last-second loss to divisional rival Miami. Tom Brady tends to step up under pressure though and his opponent in Week 15, Pittsburgh, has been particularly friendly to opposing quarterbacks, allowing the seventh-most fantasy points of all the teams on this slate. The Steelers are tied for allowing the fifth-most passing touchdowns in the NFL and are also allowing the sixth-most passing yards in the league.
On the flip side, Brady and the Patriots are scoring 2.3 passing touchdowns per game, making them the fifth-highest scoring team in the league when passing. In terms of efficiency, Pittsburgh is allowing the ninth-highest passer rating to opponents, and the seventh-highest rating on the slate, while Brady has the 13th-best passer rating of all starting quarterbacks but the seventh-best rating of the quarterbacks on this slate.
David Johnson – $7,100
I’ll admit, it’s tough pulling the trigger on David Johnson in cash games. He has been more of a boom-or-bust tournament play, but his opponent, Atlanta, has been in a free fall over the past month, losing five straight games. The Falcons are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs which should immediately turn some heads. This ranking is due in large part to the fact that Atlanta is allowing an average of 131 rushing yards per game, the seventh-highest average in the league, and 1.3 rushing touchdowns per game, tying them for the third-most rushing touchdowns allowed.
Don’t be lulled into the belief that the value here is based solely on rushing alone. Falcons’ opponents have found a way to heavily factor their running backs into the passing game as well. Atlanta has allowed 116 pass attempts to the position this season, making them the second-highest targeted defense when the intended receiver was a running back. Why this is important is because Johnson has been targeted with at least nine passes in three games this season with 10 targets just last week. There is a lot to like with Johnson this week, despite a matchup that seems a bit intimidating at first glance.
Davante Adams – $7,900
While there are a lot of tasty wide receiver matchups this week, so many of them simply aren’t on this slate. Luckily for us, Davante Adams is. His matchup against the Bears is interesting for a number of reasons. First, the Bears are fresh off a big win against the Rams and opponents coming off a big win tends to be ripe for a follow-up “let down game”. Beyond that, Chicago is allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers of all the teams on this slate.
With the position prime for fantasy pickings this week, a further look at who could benefit on the Packers immediately centers on Adams due to the fact that he is seeing 10.6 targets per game, the fourth-highest average of all wide receivers. In terms of team target share, Adams is targeted with 45.8 percent of all of Green Bay’s wide receiver targets, making him the seventh-highest shareholder in the league. He has done a great job capitalizing on these targets as well given that he is in the top five wide receivers in fantasy points, points per game, touchdowns, utility, red-zone targets, air yards, and air yards per game. This is going to be the position to pay up for this week.