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Dez Bryant Similarity Scores

399px-Dez_Bryant_2010Using the Custom Similarity Score tool posted here, we can take a look at Dez Bryant similar players and how they fared in the season after they were similar to Bryant’s 2012 campaign.  Here’s Bryant’s 2012 season, followed by the list of comparable players:

NAME SEAS AGE WEIGHT GMS TRGS RECS YDS TDS FPOP YPT
1 Dez Bryant 2012 24 220 16 8.62 5.75 86.38 0.75 0.89 10.01

Comparables (Season N)

NAME SEAS AGE WEIGHT GMS TRGS RECS YDS TDS recFPOP YPT
1 Javon Walker 2004 26 220 16 9.00 5.56 86.38 0.75 0.41 9.6
2 Larry Fitzgerald 2008 25 218 16 9.56 5.94 89 0.75 0.26 9.31
3 Miles Austin 2009 25 217 16 7.75 5.06 82.5 0.69 0.51 10.65
4 Marques Colston 2007 24 225 16 8.88 6.06 74.19 0.69 0.17 8.36
5 Larry Fitzgerald 2007 24 218 15 11.13 6.73 94.13 0.67 0.19 8.46
6 Larry Fitzgerald 2005 22 218 16 10.31 6.44 88.06 0.62 0.19 8.54
7 Anquan Boldin 2003 23 220 16 10.25 6.31 86.06 0.5 0.12 8.4
8 Julio Jones 2011 22 220 12 7.92 4.5 79.5 0.67 0.52 10.04
9 Marques Colston 2006 23 225 13 8.85 5.38 79.85 0.62 0.26 9.03
10 Calvin Johnson 2008 23 236 16 9.44 4.88 83.19 0.75 0.36 8.81
11 Anquan Boldin 2007 27 220 12 8.25 5.92 71.08 0.75 0.33 8.62
12 Braylon Edwards 2007 24 215 16 9.56 5 80.56 1 0.35 8.42
13 Randy Moss 2001 24 210 16 9.56 5.12 76.81 0.62 0.18 8.03
14 Marques Colston 2011 28 225 14 7.64 5.71 81.64 0.57 0.48 10.68
15 Randy Moss 2000 23 210 16 8.00 4.81 89.81 0.94 0.79 11.23

The list is obviously an impressive one if what we’re interested in is how Bryant might fare during the 2013 season.  Almost every player on the list had multiple years of fantasy productivity.  Players that are as young and big as Dez Bryant, tend not to have the kind of season that Bryant had, unless they have the goods in terms of talent and ability.

In order to get some sense as to the range of outcomes that might be in store for Bryant in 2013, we can look at what the comparable group did in the year after they were similar to Bryant:

NAME SEAS AGE WEIGHT GMS TRGS RECS YDS TDS recFPOP YPT
1 Javon Walker 2005 27 220 1 5.00 4 27 0 -0.36 5.4
2 Larry Fitzgerald 2009 26 218 16 9.56 6.06 68.25 0.81 0.15 7.14
3 Miles Austin 2010 26 217 16 7.44 4.31 65.19 0.44 0.12 8.76
4 Marques Colston 2008 25 225 11 8.00 4.27 69.09 0.45 0.16 8.64
5 Larry Fitzgerald 2008 25 218 16 9.56 5.94 89 0.75 0.26 9.31
6 Larry Fitzgerald 2006 23 218 13 8.54 5.31 72.77 0.46 0.07 8.52
7 Anquan Boldin 2004 24 220 10 10.40 5.6 62.3 0.1 -0.32 5.99
8 Julio Jones 2012 23 220 16 8.00 4.94 74.88 0.62 0.31 9.36
9 Marques Colston 2007 24 225 16 8.88 6.06 74.19 0.69 0.17 8.36
10 Calvin Johnson 2009 24 236 14 9.71 4.79 70.29 0.36 -0.14 7.24
11 Anquan Boldin 2008 28 220 12 10.50 7.42 86.5 0.92 0.21 8.24
12 Braylon Edwards 2008 25 215 16 8.62 3.44 54.81 0.19 -0.29 6.36
13 Randy Moss 2002 25 210 16 11.56 6.62 84.19 0.44 -0.19 7.28
14 Marques Colston 2012 29 225 16 8.12 5.19 71.94 0.62 0.27 8.85
15 Randy Moss 2001 24 210 16 9.56 5.12 76.81 0.62 0.18 8.03
The comparable group caught around 70 yards per game and about a touchdown every other game.  That’s about an 1100yd/8td pace.  One thing that is worth noting is that Javon Walker played only one game due to injury.  That’s a good reminder that there is always a range of outcomes that might be possible.  If you wanted to throw out the Walker season in order to estimate Dez’s prospects for 2013, it would improve the estimate a little, but not dramatically.  That’s why it’s useful to look at a decent number of similar seasons.  Once you get up to 15 or 20 similar seasons in your forecast, the estimate tends to settle down and not move a lot based on the inclusion or exclusion of a single season.
Be sure to check out the Custom Similarity Score tool and use it to look at any guys you might have locked up in your keeper or dynasty leagues.

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