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Russell Wilson: Great in the Red Zone and on Third Down

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Photo by Football Schedule

During the RotoViz Dynasty League draft, I wrote about Russell Wilson being a Dynasty Building Block. I pointed out how truly elite Wilson’s senior season at Wisconsin was.

This weekend, I saw these two tweets from Doug Farrar, and took a closer look at Wilson’s 2012 NFL rookie season. In case you didn’t buy my earlier argument, maybe this will help:

via Twitter / SC_DougFarrar: Best red zone passing DVOA ….

Best red zone passing DVOA in 2012, at least 50 passes: Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Russell Wilson.

Best third-down passing DVOA, at least 50 attempts: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson.

Hey, that’s pretty good company. Here’s a couple tables to put Wilson’s first professional season in context.  According to Football Outsiders, here are the top-15 games ever by a rookie QB.

Rk

Year

Player

Team

Opp.

CP/AT

Yds

TD

INT

Total

DYAR

Pass

DYAR

Rush

DYAR

1.

2012

Russell Wilson

SEA

CHI

23/37

296

2

0

235

203

32

2.

1999

Cade McNown

CHI

DET

27/36

301

4

2

211

200

11

3.

2012

Andrew Luck

IND

MIA

30/48

433

2

0

205

204

1

4.

1999

Jeff Garcia*

SF

ATL

26/34

373

2

0

202

193

9

5.

1998

Ryan Leaf

SD

SEA

25/49

281

1

0

188

183

4

6.

2003

Byron Leftwich

JAC

TB

21/34

226

2

0

184

179

5

7.

2008

Matt Ryan

ATL

CHI

22/30

301

1

0

177

181

-4

8.

1999

Jeff Garcia*

SF

CIN

33/47

437

3

1

174

172

2

9.

1998

Peyton Manning

IND

CIN

17/26

210

3

0

169

169

0

10.

1998

Charlie Batch

DET

TB

14/23

195

2

0

165

160

5

11.

1994

Heath Shuler

WAS

ARI

16/27

287

1

1

165

149

16

12.

2012

Brandon Weeden

CLE

CIN

26/37

322

2

0

164

163

1

13.

1993

Rick Mirer

SEA

SD

25/40

282

1

0

160

146

14

14.

2004

Eli Manning

NYG

PIT

16/23

182

2

1

160

152

8

15.

1993

Drew Bledsoe

NE

MIA

27/43

329

4

1

159

167

-7

Here’s a full-season look at all 2012 QBs.

Player

DYAR

Rk

DVOA

Rk

C%

Rk

T.Brady

2035

1

35.1%

1

63.5%

12

P.Manning

1800

2

32.7%

2

69%

2

D.Brees

1444

3

19.9%

5

63.7%

11

A.Rodgers

1395

4

23.3%

4

67.7%

4

M.Ryan

1216

5

17%

7

68.6%

3

T.Romo

1187

6

15.5%

9

66.1%

6

M.Stafford

1148

7

11.9%

12

60.2%

21

R.Wilson

867

8

19.7%

6

64.4%

8

E.Manning

770

9

9.5%

13

60.1%

22

B.Roethlisberger

757

10

13.1%

11

64.3%

9

R.Griffin

729

11

16.7%

8

66.5%

5

M.Schaub

695

12

7.4%

14

64.3%

10

C.Kaepernick

553

13

25.7%

3

62.7%

14

C.Newton

422

14

2%

15

58.1%

30

A.Smith

420

15

14.9%

10

70.3%

1

S.Bradford

372

16

-1.2%

16

60.4%

20

J.Flacco

354

17

-1.4%

17

59.7%

24

C.Palmer

334

18

-2.4%

18

61.7%

18

A.Luck

255

19

-5.2%

19

55%

35

A.Dalton

192

20

-5.9%

20

62.8%

13

C.Ponder

175

21

-6.1%

21

62.2%

16

P.Rivers

138

22

-7.3%

22

64.7%

7

J.Freeman

115

23

-8.1%

24

55.1%

34

R.Fitzpatrick

114

24

-7.8%

23

60.8%

19

R.Tannehill

37

25

-10%

25

58.5%

28

M.Hasselbeck

-4

26

-11.4%

26

62.4%

15

J.Cutler

-73

27

-13.6%

27

58.8%

26

M.Vick

-82

28

-14.5%

28

58.6%

27

K.Kolb

-155

29

-23.2%

31

59.6%

25

N.Foles

-166

30

-20.4%

30

61.8%

17

J.Locker

-267

31

-23.7%

32

56.9%

33

B.Gabbert

-269

32

-25.3%

34

58.3%

29

C.Henne

-287

33

-24.6%

33

54.4%

38

B.Weeden

-290

34

-19.4%

29

57.8%

31

J.Skelton

-323

35

-34.9%

37

54.5%

37

M.Cassel

-354

36

-30.5%

36

59.9%

23

B.Quinn

-442

37

-43.9%

38

57.1%

32

R.Lindley

-482

38

-55.8%

39

52%

39

M.Sanchez

-611

39

-29.9%

35

54.6%

36

Quick Thoughts

  • Wilson is Top Ten in every category. He’s also the youngest in the Top Ten, for you long-term thinking dynasty drafters.
  • Peyton Manning does like like a sneaky safe pick. In recent start-up keeper drafts, he’s the 13th QB off the board.
  • Why do people not like Tony Romo?
  • Ryan Lindley ranks higher than Mark Sanchez. I just threw up in my mouth.

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